The Baltimore Orioles (15-16) and New York Yankees (20-11) will face off in the opening matchup of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium on Friday, May 1, at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Friday is the first of seven meetings over the next two weeks between the two teams. The Yankees took two of three in Texas this week, while the Orioles split a doubleheader with the Astros yesterday and took two of three in the series.
Below, we’ll break down our Orioles vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Friday’s MLB showdown, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Orioles vs. Yankees Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, May 1
After meeting for four games in the Bronx, the Yankees and O’s will battle in a three-game series next week in Baltimore. Then, the two will meet again in August and September. Last year, the Yankees won nine of the 13 meetings, including the final five matchups of the season.
New York sends SP Will Warren (2.68 xFIP across 6 starts) to the mound. After putting SP Trevor Rogers (illness) on the 15-day IL, the Orioles may call up SP Cade Povich (4.58 xFIP across 2 games and 12.1 IP) for a start tonight, though Baltimore has yet to name its starter as of this writing.
Warren, in his third season in the big leagues, has a perfect 3-0 record on the season, allowing 2 ER or fewer in all six starts. He’s fifth in the majors with a 2.68 xFIP and 16th with a 5.4% BB%, per FanGraphs.
On the season, Baltimore is 16th in xFIP (4.14) and xERA (4.13), while sitting second to last in the AL for BABIP (.306).
The Yankees' bats lead the majors with 46 home runs and a .201 ISO and are second in the AL in wRC+ (115), wOBA (.340), and OPS (.768). The lone weakness for the Yankees could be their .272 BABIP, which is second to last in the AL.
The Orioles offense has been better than expected this season, ranking fifth in the AL for wRC+ (103) and ISO (.161) and sixth in wOBA (.323) and home runs (34).
Orioles vs. Yankees Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, May 1
The Yankees enter Friday’s game as home favorites vs. the Orioles, returning a 1.51x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Orioles vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: New York Yankees -1.5 (2.04x)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.78x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Orioles - 2.43x | Yankees - 1.51x
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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Orioles at Yankees Prediction on Over/Under – 5/1/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Orioles vs. Yankees prediction for the over/under for Friday, May 1.
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- The Yankees have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball, leading the majors in WAR (5.0), xFIP (3.58), xERA (3.18), and ground ball percentage (47.5%), according to FanGraphs.
- Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren is coming off back-to-back quality starts, allowing 2 ER in each appearance, while going 7 innings vs. the Royals and 6 innings vs. the Astros, earning the win in both outings.
- The under is 12-17-2 for the Yankees thus far. The 58.6% mark is tied for the highest in the AL.
- Seven of the last 10 Yankees games have gone under the total. The total reached only 4.7 runs per game in New York's last three games.
- Baltimore is 20-11 to the over, playing the third-most overs in the majors. That includes nine of the last 10 games going over, averaging 11.3 combined runs per game in the split.
- Despite healthy run totals, the Orioles are batting just .237 (18th).
Orioles vs. Yankees Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 5/1/26
Here are top Orioles vs. Yankees picks to target on PrizePicks for Friday, May 1. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include C Adley Rutschman and 1B Ben Rice.
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Orioles C Adley Rutschman vs. Yankees Projection: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Orioles C Adley Rutschman leads the team with 182 wRC+ (third in AL), .440 wOBA (third in AL), 1.020 OPS (fourth in AL), and .294 ISO.
- Rutschman is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He has hits in seven straight games, hitting .467 with 4 HR and 14 RBIs during the span.
- The Oregon State product’s 280 wRC+ and .920 slugging percentage since April 21 are second in the majors, while his 14 RBIs top MLB in the split.
- Rutschman is 0 of 3 in his career vs. Will Warren but is hitting .303 over 39 career games vs. the Yankees.
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Yankees 1B Ben Rice vs. Orioles Projection: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Rice is off to a terrific start, leading the team with a .492 wOBA (second in AL), a .744 SLG, and a .422 ISO (leads AL). His 10 HRs are tied for the third-most in the majors.
- After recording a 15.4% barrel rate and a 55.8% hard-hit rate last season, the slugging 1B has a 22.6% barrel rate and a 64.5% hard-hit rate in 2026, per FanGraphs.
- The Dramouth product has recorded hits in five of his last seven games and has driven in 5 runs in his last six games.
- In 15 career games vs. the Orioles, Rice has 7 HRs and 15 RBIs, both the most vs. any opponent in his career.
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Will the Yankees continue dominating teams on the mound and open the four-game series with a win? Or will the Orioles end a five-game skid against their rival?
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