The semifinals of the 2026 UEFA Champions League are officially underway following an electric clash between PSG and Bayern Munich on Tuesday. Atletico Madrid will host Arsenal on Wednesday, April 29 for the first leg of their matchup at 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Arsenal is slightly favored as the visitors, returning a 2.38x payout if they secure a victory.
Below, we’ll discuss our Atletico vs. Arsenal Champions League prediction and picks for Wednesday’s match.
Make your picks for Atletico vs. Arsenal on PrizePicks now.
{{core_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Atletico vs. Arsenal Prediction, Picks for Champions League Semifinals – Wednesday, April 29
To advance to the semifinals, Atletico Madrid slayed their Spanish rivals, Barcelona, in the quarterfinals. Barcelona scored two quick goals in the second leg to bring it level, but a 31st-minute goal by Atletico MF Ademola Lookman was just enough to sneak a victory.
After strong performances against Barcelona, Lookman is in doubt to play on Wednesday due to a muscle issue. Lookman returned to training following a two-game absence in Atletico’s La Liga schedule, though manager Diego Simeone revealed that the attacking midfielder was still experiencing discomfort.
Although Arsenal has dealt with injury concerns of their own, there was a positive development for F Bukayo Saka’s recovery. In Saka’s first appearance since March 22, he logged 10 minutes off the bench during Saturday’s 1-0 win over Newcastle United.
Saka is officially fit on the squad for Wednesday’s crucial match, but F Kai Havertz will be unavailable.
There’s a ton of pressure on Arsenal as they look to take home the Champions League and Premier League trophies. The Gunners are currently atop the EPL table with 73 points, while they’ve played one more game than second-place Man City, who are sitting at 70 points.
Arsenal returns a 1.51x payout on “Yes” and a 2.08x payout on “No” to win at least one trophy this season, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Atletico vs. Arsenal Spread, Total Goals, Payouts – Wednesday, April 29
Arsenal enters Wednesday’s UCL semifinals match as road favorites, returning a 2.38x payout ($100 entry pays out $238) on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
- Winner Payout: Arsenal – 2.38x | Tie – 3.03x | Atletico – 2.77x
- Spread: Arsenal -1.5 (4.76x Payout)
- Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 2.12x)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.85x | No 1.88x
Play the Atletico vs. Arsenal spread or total goals on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. Does not include extra time or penalties.
Atletico vs. Arsenal Prediction on Total Goals for Champions League – 4/29/26
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Atletico vs. Arsenal prediction on total goals for Wednesday, April 29. Check out more of our soccer picks and predictions on Playbook.
Lock in your Atletico vs. Arsenal prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- In addition to not knowing how many minutes Saka can play, Arsenal have only scored a combined 4 goals in their last five matches across the UCL and EPL.
- There have been fewer than 3 total goals scored in each of Arsenal’s last four Champions League contests.
- According to FotMob, the Gunners are first in the UCL in both xG conceded (8.6) and clean sheets (8) in the competition.
- While Atletico Madrid has been involved in high-scoring affairs in Champions League competition, they are third in xG conceded (40.8) in La Liga.
- Without Lookman healthy, chances could be tougher to come by, as he’s third on the team in xG + xA per 90 minutes (0.69) in the UCL.
- Despite Atletico Madrid ranking 25th in the Champions League in goals conceded per match (1.9), Arsenal are first (0.4).
- Arsenal has seen 2 or fewer total goals scored in each of their first-leg matchups over the last two rounds of the Champions League.
Atletico vs. Arsenal Projected Lineups
Here are the projected Atletico vs. Arsenal lineups for today's Champions League match. Lineups are not official.
Atletico Lineup vs. Arsenal: Projected 4-4-2
- Goalkeeper: Jan Oblak
- Defense: Matteo Ruggeri, Marc Pubill, Robin Le Normand, Marcos Llorente
- Midfield: Nico Gonzalez, Koke, Johnny Cardoso, Giuliano Simeone
- Forwards: Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez
Arsenal Lineup vs. Atletico: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: David Raya
- Defense: Piero Hincapie, Gabriel Magalhaesi, William Saliba, Ben White
- Midfield: Martin Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard
- Forwards: Leandro Trossard, Viktor Gyokeres, Bukayo Saka
Atletico vs. Arsenal Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks for Champions League: 4/29/26
Here are two Atletico vs. Arsenal picks to target on players for Wednesday, April 29. Player picks via PrizePicks are headlined by F Julian Alvarez and DF William Saliba.
Atletico F Julian Alvarez vs. Arsenal
Julian Alvarez Projections via PrizePicks: 1.5 Shots (Goblin), 0.5 Shots on Target (Goblin), 0.5 Goal + Assist (Demon)
- Julian Alvarez has started in all 13 of his UCL appearances, delivering 2 or more shots in 11 of those outings.
- Alvarez has also tallied at least 1 shot on target in nine of his Champions League matches.
- Along with Alvarez being on set-piece duties for Atletico, he’s produced a goal and/or assist in three of his last four UCL starts.
- Alvarez has the fourth-most goals + assists (13) in the UCL.
Add Julian Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
{{core_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Arsenal DF William Saliba vs. Atletico
William Saliba Projections via PrizePicks: 1.5 Fouls (Demon), 70.5 Passes Attempted, 4 Clearances
- William Saliba has committed multiple fouls in six of his last seven UCL starts.
- Over his nine Champions League starts, Saliba has attempted 71 or more passes just three times.
- Saliba has made 4 or more clearances in two of his last three UCL games.
- Plus, Saliba has tallied at least 4 clearances in eight consecutive Premier League appearances.
Add William Saliba to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Atletico vs. Arsenal Picks on PrizePicks
It may be tough to replicate the battle we witnessed between PSG and Bayern Munich in the Champions League semifinals. Can either Atletico or Arsenal gain an advantage entering the second leg of their UCL semifinals showdown?
You can make your Atletico vs. Arsenal picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money on Champions League games. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct.
With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued Champions League predictions, picks, and analysis until a champion is crowned.
