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Friday is chock-full with a 15-game MLB slate, beginning at 2:20 p.m. ET and ending with a 9:45 p.m. ET first pitch. After snapping his home run drought, Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani will look to keep up his momentum tonight.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Friday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, May 1, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, May 1
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Yankees OF Aaron Judge
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Angels OF Mike Trout
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Cubs OF Seiya Suzuki
- Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Mariners C Cal Raleigh
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – 6:45 p.m. ET
Pirates Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller (6 GS, 2-1, 4.19 xFIP, 29.0% hard-hit, 35.4% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 52 degrees, 36% chance of rain, and 9 mph winds out to LF
- After smashing 4 big flies over his last eight games, Elly De La Cruz’s 10 home runs are tied for the third-highest mark in baseball.
- As usual, De La Cruz carries strong slugging numbers, including a 95.8 average exit velocity (99th percentile), 17.1% barrel rate (92nd percentile), and 56.1% hard-hit rate (96th percentile).
- He’s still struggling with strikeouts, proven by his 28.4% K rate (21st percentile).
- However, Pirates SP Mitch Keller carries an 18.2% K% (26th percentile), a 22.4% whiff rate (33rd percentile), and a 29.2% chase rate (47th percentile).
- Keller has given up only 1 dinger over six starts, leading to an elite 2.9% HR/FB thus far.
- Plus, his 35.4% fly ball rate allowed is under the 38.6% league average.
- De La Cruz bats .256 against right-handed pitchers compared to .353 against lefties.
Add Elly De La Cruz to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals – 8:15 p.m. ET
Cardinals Starting Pitcher: Matthew Liberatore (6 GS, 0-1, 5.00 xFIP, 36.2% hard-hit, 41.3% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 63 degrees, clear skies, and 3 mph winds toward 1B
- Shohei Ohtani failed to go yard from April 13 to April 25, but that drought finally came to an end with a home run vs. the Cubs on April 26.
- He’s still sporting elite marks, including a .548 xSLG (90th percentile) and 21.5% barrel rate (98th percentile).
- Ohtani’s 39.2% fly ball rate is below his usual marks, such as 43.9% from 2025.
- However, Cardinals SP Matthew Liberatore allows plenty of lift with his 41.3% FB% and 18.6% HR/FB.
- Against the left-handed Liberatore, the Dodgers’ superstar bats .375 vs. southpaws compared to .231 when facing righties.
Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Angels OF Mike Trout
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels – 9:38 p.m. ET
Mets Starting Pitcher: Christian Scott (1 GS, 0-0, 18.35 xFIP, 0.0% hard-hit, 100.0% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 70 degrees, clear skies, and 6 mph winds out to LF
- Over the last five games, Mike Trout has raked to the tune of .316 while launching 2 homers in the split.
- He officially reached double-digit big flies with his 10th HR on Wednesday, backed by an absurd .707 xSLG (100th percentile) and a 25.3% barrel rate (99th percentile) on the season.
- Winds blowing to left field may aid Trout tonight, and he boasts a lofty 57.0% fly ball rate.
- Mets SP Christian Scott made a brief start on April 23, pitching for only 1.1 innings while totaling 43 pitches.
- Over nine starts in 2024, Scott allowed 1.52 HR/9 and an alarming 50.7% fly ball rate.
- Trout has hit 8 of his 10 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season.
Add Mike Trout to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
While Elly De La Cruz has enjoyed a strong start to the season, he faces a starter that regularly avoids home runs. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout could flourish against underwhelming starters on Friday night.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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