The Trail Blazers vs. Spurs NBA Playoff game is set to tip off at 9:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 28, with San Antonio entering as 12.5-point favorites on the PrizePicks Team Picks spread.
With its back against the wall, can Portland find a way to keep the series alive down 3-1? San Antonio is firing on all cylinders, especially now that all-world C Victor Wembanyama has returned to the starting five. The stage is set for what could be a Tuesday night thriller on ESPN.
Below, we'll break down our Trail Blazers vs. Spurs prediction and picks for Tuesday’s NBA Playoff game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Tuesday, April 28
Despite SF Deni Avdija’s efforts, the Trail Blazers haven’t been able to play the spoiler role much. Game 1 went to the Spurs, 111-98, thanks to a 35-point outburst from Wembanyama. A concussion forced Wembanyama to exit Game 2 early, however, allowing Portland to tie things up.
The Wemby-less Spurs won by 12 in Game 3, sending a clear message that this team could be here to stay.
Sunday’s triumph in Portland may have been the biggest win to date, as the 21-point takedown saw PG De’Aaron Fox come alive to the tune of 28 points in his superstar center’s return.
Thus far in the series, the Spurs have a massive advantage in net rating at +11.5, compared to the Blazers’ -11.8 mark. Not only that, but their margin in effective field goal percentage is 6.2%.
San Antonio has more star power, a deeper rotation, and a better analytical profile than its counterparts. The result is a 3-1 lead in the set, with Portland on the ropes entering Tuesday.
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Spread, Over/Under – Tuesday, April 28
The Spurs enter Tuesday’s game as 12.5-point favorites against the Trail Blazers, returning a 1.14x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Trail Blazers vs. Spurs game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -12.5 (1.92x payout)
- Over/Under: 217.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Trail Blazers 5.26x | Spurs 1.14x
Play the Trail Blazers vs. Spurs spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs Timeline
Here is the full Trail Blazers vs. Spurs timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.
All-Time: Spurs, 117-101
Regular Season: Spurs, 2-1
Series: Spurs, 3-1
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs First Round Timeline, Schedule for 2026 NBA Playoffs
- Game 1: Spurs, 111-98
- Game 2: Trail Blazers, 106-103
- Game 3: Spurs, 120-108
- Game 4: Spurs, 114-93
- Game 5: Tuesday, April 28, 9:30 p.m. in San Antonio
- Games 6-7 if necessary
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Prediction on Spread for NBA Playoffs First Round
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Trail Blazers vs. Spurs prediction on spread for Tuesday, April 28.
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- The Spurs are 21-18-1 against the spread as home favorites on the year, which is the eighth-best record in the NBA. Portland is 13-14 ATS as road underdogs.
- While not a juggernaut, San Antonio’s offense is quite efficient. It sits fifth in points per shot at 1.178, also putting up the third-most points (119.4) on a nightly basis.
- Backed by Wembanyama, the Spurs’ defense is downright suffocating, ranking inside the top 10 in fastbreak scoring (12.9 PPG, third) and paint scoring (46.2 PPG, seventh) allowed.
- Portland doesn’t capitalize on many of its looks on offense, as it’s second-to-last in shooting percentage (45.2%) and fourth-worst from distance (34.2%).
- Interim head coach Tiago Splitter’s crew is 12th in points per shot allowed (1.144), mostly preventing 3-pointers from being taken (34.7 each game) or made (12.5).
- The Spurs’ 114.1 offensive rating this series blows the Blazers’ 102.5 mark out of the water.
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 4/28/26
Here are three top Trail Blazers vs. Spurs picks to target in the NBA Playoffs on PrizePicks for Tuesday, April 28. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks include SF Deni Avdija, C Victor Wembanyama, and PG De’Aaron Fox.
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Trail Blazers SF Deni Avdija vs. Spurs Projection: 36.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- After averaging 37.8 combined points, rebounds, and assists during the regular season, Avdija has slightly declined that mark to 35.4 this NBA Playoffs.
- According to databallr, Avdija has spent by far the most possessions defended by G Stephon Castle. He has an ugly 41 eFG% in those sequences.
- The Spurs give up the ninth-fewest rebounds each night at 51.6.
- Avdija’s 1.52 assist-to-turnover ratio in the first round is considerably worse than his regular-season threshold of 1.76.
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Spurs C Victor Wembanyama vs. Trail Blazers Projection: 38.5 Pts + Rebs
- Wembanyama put up 38.2 points and rebounds per game after the All-Star break. Excluding his early departure from Game 2, he’s averaging 39.5 in this series.
- The French big man’s 3-point shot has come alive in the NBA Playoffs, as he’s 6-for-11 from beyond the arc.
- Via NBA Advanced Stats, among postseason players with 25+ minutes a night, Wembanyama owns the fourth-lowest average rebound distance at 4.2 feet.
- Wembanyama ranks in the 100th percentile in defensive rebounding rate at 28.7%.
Add Victor Wembanyama to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Spurs PG De’Aaron Fox vs. Trail Blazers Projection: 23.5 Pts + Asts
- Fox pieced together a healthy 24.8 points and assists in the regular season, and that number is 26.3 in this ongoing Blazers series.
- Swipa jacks up 24.7 true shot attempts per 100 possessions, placing him in the 84th percentile.
- Despite seeing a year-over-year drop in usage rate of 3.4%, Fox’s 29.6% assist share is his highest since 2022-23 on the Sacramento Kings.
- Per NBA RAPM, Fox nets 23.6 assist points per 100, his most since 2021.
Add De’Aaron Fox to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
NBA Playoffs Live Picks: Trail Blazers vs. Spurs on PrizePicks for Game 5
Here are some in-game angles to target for your Trail Blazers vs. Spurs live picks in tonight’s game.
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- Could the Wembanyama assignment sway this matchup? PF Toumani Camara and PG Jrue Holiday have been his primary defenders, yet he has a 60% eFG% against both. Perhaps throwing C Donovan Clingan (45%) on him more could help prolong the series.
- Keep an eye on how these squads come out of the halftime locker room. Portland ranks 27th and 22nd in third- and fourth-quarter scoring, and San Antonio’s defense is 11th and eighth in those respective frames.
- Further expanding on that, the two clubs have been polar opposites when it matters. Per NBA Advanced Stats, the Spurs are second among 16 playoff teams with a +28.7 fourth-quarter net rating. Portland, in turn, is 15th.
- An uptempo battle could impact opportunities to stuff the stat sheet. These teams are tied for fifth in the postseason with a pace of 97.63.
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Will San Antonio close things out in front of its home crowd on Tuesday, or could Portland keep its season alive by pulling off an upset victory on the road? The stakes don’t get much higher for one side of this first-round matchup.
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