Two former European champions meet in the first leg of the Europa League semifinals at The City Ground on Thursday, April 30, as Nottingham Forest hosts Aston Villa at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Nottingham Forest are slight favorites to get the home victory over Aston Villa, returning a 2.43x payout if they claim the win, according to PrizePicks Team Picks.
Forest come into the match having to balance the competition with remaining in the Premier League next season, as they sit just five points above the drop zone. Villa can likely afford their full focus, as they’ve all but secured Champions League football for next campaign.
Below, we’ll break down our Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa prediction and picks for Thursday afternoon’s Europa League match, including the spread, total goals, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa on PrizePicks now.
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Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Spread, Total Goals for Europa League – Thursday, April 30
This competition has long been considered the Unai Emery Invitational, given he’s lifted the Europa League trophy four times in the past 12 seasons. In fact, his six semifinals appearances are the most of any manager in history.
Only one of those instances, the first one back in 2012 with Valencia, has seen him fail to reach the final. To keep that streak alive, Aston Villa side may need to find a way to get an away result.
A 1-0 defeat at Fulham over the weekend left them with just two wins in their last seven away fixtures in all competitions. Both of those victories came in Europa League play, a competition where Villa has conceded just 4 away goals thus far.
Villa’s defensive prowess will be tested by this Nottingham Forest side. Forest’s 14.55 xG in home matches leads all teams in Europa League play, although they’ve managed just 12 actual goals. They also rank second in the competition with 6.7 shots on target per home outing.
Forest are in their best form. Their 5-0 win away at Sunderland on Friday was a stunning result and extended an unbeaten run to eight matches in all competitions. It was also their third victory on the trot.
They do have some depth issues to contend with. CB Murillo, CB Willy Boly, and FW Callum Hudson-Odoi are all set to miss the match, with the latter two being key contributors.
For Villa, only CM Boubacar Kamara is a notable absence that's left the midfield somewhat exposed at times since he suffered a knee injury in January.
This match is a tremendous chess match of contrasting styles. Forest average 11.71 double-digit passing sequences per Europa League match, the eighth-most of any side. They also rank fourth in build-ups per match, and only two sides averaged more passes in the final third.
Conversely, Villa wants to run at opponents. They ranked ninth this campaign in average direct attacks, and their 2.42 through balls per match rank third in the competition.
These two sides played to a 1-1 stalemate at The City Ground just 18 days ago, sharing the spoils with nearly identical xG marks. A similar result here wouldn't be surprising, and perhaps neither side would be terribly upset about it heading into the second leg.
Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa Spread, Total Goals, Payouts – Thursday, April 30
Nottingham Forest enters Thursday’s game as slight home favorites, returning a 2.43x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa match on PrizePicks.
- Winner Payout: Nottingham Forest – 2.43x | Tie – 3.03x | Aston Villa – 2.63x
- Spread: Nottingham Forest -1.5 (5.26x Payout)
- Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 2.00x)
Play the Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa spread or total goals on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money—available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa Prediction on Total Goals – 4/30/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa prediction on total goals for Thursday, April 30.
Lock in your Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- There have been 2 or fewer goals scored in nine of Forest’s last 12 home matches.
- Fewer than 3 goals have been scored in seven of Aston Villa’s last nine matches in all competitions.
- Aston Villa have scored multiple goals in just one of their last seven away fixtures.
- Nottingham Forest has allowed the fewest shots per match in the Europa League, with opponents averaging just 8.38 attempts.
- Aston Villa have conceded just six goals in Europa League play, a staggering 8.48 goals below expected — the best xGDiff of any team in the competition.
Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa Projected Lineups for Thursday, April 30
Here are the projected Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa lineups for today's Europa League match. Lineups are not official.
Nottingham Forest Lineup vs. Aston Villa: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Stefan Ortega
- Defense: Ola Aina, Nikola Milenkovic, Morato, Neco Williams
- Midfield: Eliot Anderson, Ibrahim Sangare, Morgan Gibbs-White
- Forwards: Omari Hutchinson, Igor Jesus, Dan Ndoye
Aston Villa Lineup vs. Nottingham Forest: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Emi Martinez
- Defense: Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Pau Torres, Lucas Digne
- Midfield: Lamare Bogarde, Youri Tielemans, Morgan Rogers
- Forwards: John McGinn, Ollie Watkins, Emiliano Buendia
Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 4/30/26
Here are two Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa picks to target on players for Thursday, April 30. Today’s Europa League picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Ollie Watkins and Morgan Gibbs-White.
Aston Villa ST Ollie Watkins vs. Nottingham Forest: 0.5 Shots Assisted
- Ollie Watkins averages 12.76 successful passes per 90 minutes in the Europa League.
- Of those passes, the English striker averages nearly half of them in the final third.
- Watkins has assisted a shot in six consecutive matches in all competitions.
- He assisted 1 shot in the 1-1 draw with Forest on April 12.
Add Ollie Watkins to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Nottingham Forest CM Morgan Gibbs-White vs. Aston Villa: 2 Shots
- Nottingham Forest averages the third-most shots per match of any team in the Europa League at 16.6. At home, that number increases to 18.1.
- Morgan Gibbs-White averages 1.9 shots in the competition this season.
- The English midfielder has attempted at least 2 shots in each of his last four matches, taking 12 in total.
- He attempted 3 shots in the 1-1 draw with Aston Villa on April 12.
Add Morgan Gibbs-White to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa Picks on PrizePicks
The first leg of this all-England tie in the Europa League semifinal could be an entertaining, albeit cagey, affair. Given Villa’s away form of late, they’ll aim to make sure they don’t allow Forest to get out to a big advantage ahead of the second leg.
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