UNLV vs. Boise State Picks & Predictions for MWC Championship
The stakes have never been higher as UNLV and Boise State face-off on Friday night for the Mountain West Conference Championship. This battle of the MWC’s best featured Heisman contender RB Ashton Jeanty and standout UNLV WR Ricky White.
Below, we’ve got picks and predictions for the UNLV vs. Boise State game on Friday, December 6, including picks for CFB DFS on PrizePicks.
Use these picks and game predictions to help you build your best Lineup on Friday night for what is a de facto College Football Playoff game. Build your CFB Lineup to win up to 1000x your money during College Football Conference Championship week on PrizePicks.
#20 UNLV vs. #10 Boise State Picks: MWC Championship Picks
Here are the top picks for #20 UNLV vs. #10 Boise State in the Mountain West Championship game for CFB DFS on PrizePicks. Click to read more analysis.
- When is the MWC Championship Game?
- Prediction: UNLV 31, Boise State 30
- UNLV WR Ricky White 78.5 Receiving Yards — More
- UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams 60.5 Rush Yards — More
- Boise State TE Matt Lauter 34.5 Receiving Yards — More
- Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty 1.5 Receptions — More (Goblin)
#20 UNLV vs. #10 Boise State: How to Watch, When, Preview
Date: Friday, December 6, 2024
Time: 8 p.m. ET
How to Watch: FOX
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
In the first matchup between these two teams, Boise State won 29-24, despite UNLV limiting Heisman candidate RB Ashton Jeanty to 33 carries for 128 yards (3.9 yards per carry). However, UNLV loaded the box, allowing QB Maddux Madsen to pass for 209 yards and a touchdown, with over half of his yards and completions coming on play-action.
UNLV will need to bottle up Jeanty again and adjust to protect against the play-action. If they can limit the play-action pass success, and keep Jeanty under 6 yards per carry on first downs, the Rebels have the edge in other facets of the game.
While Boise State had six sacks and nine tackles for loss in the first matchup, the Broncos defense has only seven sacks combined in its last four games against inferior opponents. It’s not the same pass rush this team started the year with.
If the pass rush can’t get to QB Hajj-Malik Williams, he will make them pay. Williams ran for 105 yards and a touchdown in the first matchup, with most of that coming on a 71-yard run.
Ultimately, I’m counting on Williams making more key plays down the stretch than Madsen, who is dead last in the country in big-time throw percentage (1.7%). UNLV is 24th in the country with 65 plays of 20+ yards, which it will need here. The only and obvious X-factor for Boise State is Jeanty, who can break open the game at any moment.
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UNLV vs. Boise State Playoff Implications
The winner of this game will earn a trip to the College Football Playoff, making this a de facto playoff game. If it’s Boise State, it will get a first-round bye. If it’s UNLV, it will almost certainly be the 12th seed in the Playoff. If UNLV loses, it’s out of Playoff contention.
Mountain West Championship Prediction: UNLV 31, Boise State 30
#20 UNLV vs. #10 Boise State Picks
Here are four of the best UNLV vs. Boise State picks for the MWC Championship game on Friday, December 6, for CFB DFS on PrizePicks.
UNLV WR Ricky White 78.5 Receiving Yards — More
Just as UNLV did a solid job containing RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State did the same for WR Ricky White in the first matchup. White had only 5 catches for 57 yards — far below his season average of 85 yards per game.
White is the go-to for this offense, with almost triple the targets of the next WR in this offense. You have to think offensive coordinator Brennan Marion will be scheming ways to get their explosive playmaker the ball in this game, as he’s a true difference maker.
Boise State’s weakened pass rush in recent weeks should give more time for QB Hajj-Malik Williams to find White and let him work.
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UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams 60.5 Rush Yards — More
As mentioned above, Williams had a lot of success running the ball in this team’s last matchup. While improving through the air will be incredibly important in getting the Rebels the win, Williams will look to use his legs against a lackluster pass rush from the Broncos.
The Broncos are a notoriously bad tackling team (ranking 132nd in tackling via PFF), and Williams will make them pay. UNLV needs to keep its offense balanced if it wants to move the ball on this Boise State offense, and Williams’ legs may be the best way to do that.
Boise State TE Matt Lauter 34.5 Receiving Yards — More
Boise State found a ton of success with the play-action pass in the first matchup, and Lauter was a go-to for Madsen, with a whopping nine targets — tied for his season high. Expect the Broncos to go right back to him in this spot.
Look for UNLV once again sell out to stop the run, opening up passing opportunities, and additional targets for Lauter.
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty 1.5 Receptions — More (Goblin)
I get it, you want a Jeanty projection in your Lineup. I’m not too excited about going more on these rushing numbers, as I think Boise State will be forced to turn to the pass often in this game. And I certainly wouldn’t want to be holding Jeanty less than squares in Lineups.
That’s why we’re going with Jeanty’s reception projection.
Jeanty had a season-high in targets last time these teams played, with five. While he is used as a pass blocker on about 30% of pass plays, Jeanty is running routes 67% of the time.
In their biggest game of the season, look for the Broncos to get the ball in the hands of their Heisman candidate any way they can, even if it’s via screens or dump-offs.
Win Real Money on UNLV vs. Boise State on PrizePicks
On Friday night, the game of the night is UNLV vs. Boise State, a de facto College Football Playoff game. Whoever wins, will move onto the College Football Playoff, and the other will be relegated to bowl games. It’s set to be an exciting matchup that could go either way.
You can get real money action on UNLV versus Boise State, plus every game through Conference Championship Week, on PrizePicks. It’s the easiest way to play; just choose more or less on player projections like the one above for any game on the board and lock in your Lineup to win up to 1000x your money.
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