Friday features the final full slate of bowl games for the 2025 college football season. Navy (10-2) against Cincinnati (7-5) in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl is a part of ESPN’s triple header, and it kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET.
The Midshipmen ended the regular season on a three-game winning streak, while the Bearcats have lost four consecutive games.
Which trends could keep up in our Navy vs. Cincinnati prediction and picks for the AutoZone Liberty Bowl? We'll key in on that, as well as PrizePicks Team Picks data to consider and some PrizePicks player projections that warrant attention.
Navy vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
As a Power Four team, Cincinnati is widely regarded as the more talented squad. However, the Bearcats are short-handed with a long list of opt-outs.
According to On3, Cincy has eight players in the transfer portal — including starting QB Brendan Sorsby. Bearcats S Trevon Gola-Callard (71 tackles) and S Christian Harrison (66 tackles) rank second and third on the team in tackles and will be out. Cincinnati starting S Jiquan Sanks and starting CB Logan Wilson round out a depleted secondary.
Navy is not expected to have opt-outs, but Midshipmen LB Job Grant and CB Irabonoise Oniha are questionable after missing the last two games.
Navy vs. Cincinnati Over/Under, Spread
PrizePicks Team Picks has Navy as a 7.5-point favorite, featuring a 1.96x payout with a cover.
As notable underdogs, Cincinnati carries a 3.03x payout for an outright win.
- Spread: Navy Midshipmen -7.5
- Over/Under: 53.5
- Game Winner Payout: Midshipmen 1.33x | Bearcats 3.03x
Team Picks data is live as of publishing and is subject to change.
Navy vs. Cincinnati Prediction on Over/Under
Cincinnati's defense, now without several pieces, already struggles by giving up 27.1 points per game (74th) and 5.7 yards per play (82nd). During the four-game losing streak, the unit is surrendering a whopping 36.5 points per contest.
The Midshipmen feature a 76.9% rush-play rate (third), potentially easing some of the Bearcats’ secondary worries. Still, Navy boasts an elite 9.7 yards per pass mark (second).
Game on Paper ranks the Bearcats 104th in EPA allowed, 104th in EPA per dropback ceded, and 102nd in EPA per rushing attempt. Holding one of the nation’s worst defenses, Cincinnati’s unit may be in big trouble with Navy ranked eighth in EPA per dropback and third in EPA per carry.
With Sorsby missing, the Bearcats’ 7.9 yards per passing attempt (34th) could take a step back. They do still sport an exceptional rushing attack, with 5.6 yards per carry (fifth) and 0.17 EPA per rushing attempt (eighth). The Midshipmen surrender 4.3 yards per carry (62nd) and 152.7 rushing yards per contest (68th).
Each offense sits in the top 10 of EPA, while both defenses rank outside the top 100. The Liberty Bowl could feature a healthy dose of points.
Navy vs. Cincinnati Picks for AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Despite our focus on the ground games, Navy QB Blake Horvath and Cincinnati WR Cyrus Allen demand attention.
Plus, success through the air could encourage a quicker pace — perhaps leading to more points for the over from PrizePicks Team Picks.
Navy QB Blake Horvath vs. Cincinnati Projection: 108.5 Passing Yards
- Horvath attempts only 13.2 passes per game; Navy carries a 23.1% pass-play rate (134th).
- Consistent big plays downfield still put the senior QB at 133.8 passing yards per contest.
- Over six games against defenses ranking 100th or worse in EPA per dropback, Horvath averaged 169.0 passing yards.
- Cincinnati gives up 7.6 yards per pass (93rd) and 247.6 passing yards per contest (109th), and the lack of availability in the secondary could assist Horvath and Navy.
Cincinnati WR Cyrus Allen vs. Navy Projection: 39.5 Receiving Yards
- Allen is a big-play machine, producing 13.6 yards per catch. He’s even recorded a 27-yard reception or better in four consecutive appearances.
- The Midshipmen’s secondary surrenders explosive plays in bulk, ceding 8.3 yards per pass (120th) and 245.1 passing yards per game (104th).
- Cincy’s leading WR totals 55.4 receiving yards per contest and has recorded 64.0 yards per game over his previous five outings.
- After reaching at least 40 receiving yards in five of the last six games, More than 39.5 receiving yards may stand out for the senior from New Orleans.
Make Navy vs. Cincinnati Liberty Bowl Picks on PrizePicks
In Friday’s matchup between former American Athletic Conference foes, will Cincinnati still perform despite notable absences? Each defense appears vulnerable, providing plenty of angles for More or Less projected stats at PrizePicks.
Just pick your players, predict More or Less on projections, and win real money if your picks are correct. You can also pick the winner, spread, and over/under at PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
Find everything you need to know for the college football postseason at the Playbook.
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