This, ladies and gents, his what the CFB is all about. Or at least should be all about.
Miami seeks its sixth national title, while Oregon, Ole Miss, and Indiana are looking for their first championship. And n a Big Ten rematch from the regular season, the future of the NFL is on display as Oregon QB Dante Moore and Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza angle to be the top pick in the 2026 NFL draft .
Below, we'll break down the top College Football Playoff Picks for PrizePicks, and list the projections for the top players in each contest.
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College Football Playoff Picks for PrizePicks
Here are the top CFB picks for the College Football Playoff Semifinals. Use this analysis to make your PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks predictions for these games.
Miami QB Carson Beck Projection vs. Ole Miss: 235.5 Passing Yards
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels Pick – Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Beck has more than 235 passing yards in nine of his 13 games this season.
- The former four-star recruit averages 2.27 seconds in the pocket in the two CFB Playoff games, via Pro Football Focus.
- According to PFF, Ole Miss has allowed opposing quarterbacks 3.15 seconds in the pocket during the CFB Playoff.
- The former Georgia quarterback's 74.4% completion rate ranks second in the FBS and is the sixth-highest in college football history.
- Georgia QB Gunner Stockton is the only other quarterback Mississippi has faced this year who ranks in the top ten for completion percentage. In two games this season against the Rebels, Stockton has a 72.1% completion rate.
- Miami pass catchers have the third-highest average yards after the catch in the country (5.1).
- The Rebels rank 79th in the FBS in average yards after the catch (3.6).
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss Projection vs. Miami: 273.5 Passing Yards
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels Pick – Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Chambliss has more than 273 passing yards in ten of his 12 starts, including a stretch of five consecutive games.
- The former Ferris State QB is the first SEC player in the last 30 years to throw for 300+ passing yards and rush for 50+ yards in three consecutive games.
- Ole Miss ranks fourth in pressure rate allowed (23.2%).
- Miami’s 42.1% pressure rate ranks fifth and has 35 pressures in the two playoff games.
- Chambliss and Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed are two of three SEC quarterbacks to surpass 3,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards this season.
Miami WR Malachi Toney Projection vs. Ole Miss: 57.5 Receiving Yards
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels Pick – Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- The former three-star recruit ranks third nationally in yards after the catch (664).
- Mississippi’s 3.6 yards allowed after the catch ranks 79th in the FBS.
- The Rebels rank 70th in the country in PFF coverage grade (74.8).
- The true freshman’s 85.9 PFF receiving grade ranks fourth in the FBS.
- Ole Miss CB Jaylon Braxton will likely cover Toney. Braxton ranks 781st out of 800 defensive backs with at least 100 coverage snaps, sporting a 64.1 PFF coverage grade and allowing 14.4 yards per reception.
Oregon QB Dante Moore Projection vs. Indiana: 218.5 Passing Yards
No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers Pick – Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- The transfer from UCLA has thrown for under 218 yards in six games, including against Indiana, where he passed for 186 yards in the Week 7 30-20 loss.
- Of Moore’s last five opponents, three rank in the top 25 in defensive pass EPA.
- Indiana is fourth in the FBS in defensive pass EPA (-0.290).
- Oregon ranks 16th in sacks allowed per game (1.2).
- Indiana ranks 13th in sacks per game (2.8).
- The potential first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft was sacked a season-high six times in the previous matchup against the Hoosiers.
- Per PFF, Moore’s 8 passing first downs against Indiana were his third-lowest this season.
- The Hoosiers rank 25th in opponents’ passing first downs per game (8.4).
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza Projection vs. Oregon: 208.5 Passing Yards
No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers Pick – Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Mendoza has more than 208 passing yards in three of his last five games.
- The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner threw for 215 yards in the 30-20 win over Oregon in Week 7.
- Despite Oregon ranking third in passing first downs allowed per game (6.8), Mendoza’s 15 first downs thrown in Week 7 were his second-highest of the season.
- The Ducks' defense ranks tenth in the nation in pressure rate (40.5%).
- According to PFF, the potential No. 1 overall pick's 71.4 passing grade under pressure ranks second in the FBS.
Indiana RB Roman Hemby Projection vs. Oregon: 61.5 Rushing Yards
No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers Pick – Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- According to PFF, Indiana ranks fourth in run blocking grade (79.2).
- Hemby has more than 61 rushing yards in nine of 14 games this season, including 70 in the Week 7 matchup against Oregon.
- The former three-star recruit played a season-high 27 snaps in the previous game against the Ducks.
- The senior either led or was tied for the team lead in carries in ten of 13 games.
- The Edgewood, MD native either led or tied for the team lead in rushing yards in 8 of 13 games.
- The transfer from Maryland has more than 40 yards after contact in eight games this season, including 45 against Oregon.
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Make College Football Playoff Picks on PrizePicks
Whether you're watching the rematch between Oregon and Indiana or Miami vs. Ole Miss, PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks are the best ways to cash in on your college football picks.
Just pick your players and predict More or Less on their stat projections on PrizePicks or make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders with Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
Stay locked in on the Playbook for more CFB news, picks, and predictions throughout the season.
