The College Football Playoff continues with a quarterfinal clash between No. 5 Oregon and No. 4 Texas Tech. The Capital One Orange Bowl kicks off Thursday at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Since their 30-20 loss to Indiana on Oct. 11, the Ducks have rattled off six wins in a row and made noise in the Big Ten. The Red Raiders, meanwhile, got upset by Arizona State on Oct. 18 (26-22) but responded with six straight triumphs of their own. The stage is set for a critical CFP showdown.
Here, we’ll break down an Oregon vs. Texas Tech prediction and Orange Bowl picks. Make your College Football Playoff picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right.
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Thursday marks just the fourth time Oregon and Texas Tech will square off on the big stage. The Ducks own the all-time series 3-0, including a 38-30 victory back in 2023 on the road.
On the availability front, Oregon’s WR corps is banged up and CB Dakoda Fields is entering the transfer portal. For TTU, no major injuries or opt-outs are present.
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Over/Under, Spread
The Ducks enter the Orange Bowl as 2.5-point favorites, returning a 1.72x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Red Raiders are underdogs with a 2x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Oregon Ducks -2.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Game Winner Payout: Ducks 1.72x | Red Raiders 2x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Oregon vs. Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl.
- No FBS team posted a better cover percentage than Texas Tech this year at 92.3. The program is 12-1 against the spread in 13 games.
- Oregon didn’t fare nearly as well ATS, going 8-5 (61.5%).
- The Ducks’ offense is a top-10 unit in scoring (37.5 points per game) and yardage (465.8 yards per game) alike. Defensively, they’re eighth in scoring (16.6 PPG) but 121st in the red zone (89.66%).
- The Red Raiders put up more PPG (40.4) than all but two programs. On the other end, they give up just 11.3 PPG, good for second nationwide.
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Orange Bowl Picks for PrizePicks
Below are prime Oregon vs. Texas Tech picks to consider for the Orange Bowl. PrizePicks player projections include QBs Dante Moore and Behren Morton and RB Cameron Dickey.
Oregon QB Dante Moore vs. Texas Tech Projection: 231.5 Pass Yards
- Through 13 contests, Moore averages 234.3 passing yards. In his last five games, that number is 254.8.
- According to Game on Paper, Moore’s 0.31 EPA per dropback ranks 16th out of 132 qualified passers.
- Among all QBs with 75+ dropbacks — a 193-player sample — Moore’s 7.8% big-time throw rate is tied for third, per Pro Football Focus.
- Texas Tech’s defense is sixth in opposing yards per pass (5.5) but has been tested at the 133rd-ranked rate (55.61%).
Texas Tech RB Cameron Dickey vs. Oregon Projection: 65.5 Rush Yards
- In addition to leading the Big 12 in rushing TDs with 14, Dickey averages 84.2 rushing yards per contest.
- Dating back to Nov. 8’s win against BYU, Dickey has produced 87.3 rushing yards per game with 5 total TDs.
- Dickey has recorded 30 rushes of 10+ yards and forced a staggering 48 missed tackles.
- Oregon’s rush defense is a mediocre 63rd in success rate at 40.9%.
Texas Tech QB Behren Morton vs. Oregon Projection: 233.5 Pass Yards
- Leading the Big 12 in completion percentage (67), yards per attempt (8.8) and rating (162.5), Morton broke out in his senior campaign.
- The fifth-year man faces a tough task on Thursday, as Oregon’s pass defense is eighth in EPA per play (-0.18) and ninth in success rate (35.7%), per Game on Paper.
- Morton’s 8.1-yard average depth of target ranks 17th out of 20 Big 12 QBs with 100+ dropbacks.
- With an average of 0.14 EPA per dropback, Morton is 91st among 132 QBs.
Make #5 Oregon vs. #4 Texas Tech Picks on PrizePicks
Bowl season and the College Football Playoff are in full swing. In addition to Oregon vs. Texas Tech Orange Bowl picks, there are several other avenues to get in on the CFB action this winter.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football predictions, picks, and news.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
