Alabama (11-3) will aim to emulate Miami’s stunning Wednesday upset of Ohio State when they take to Pasadena, CA to do battle with undefeated Indiana (13-0). Two programs with different pedigrees meet on opposite terms, with the Hoosiers being the new favorites for the National Championship and the Crimson Tide seeking to play spoiler.
Alabama vs. Indiana in the CFP quarterfinals kicks off at 4:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, live on ESPN.
Below, we’ll break down our Alabama vs. Indiana prediction and Rose Bowl picks for PrizePicks. Use PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to make CFB predictions and earn real money if you’re right.
Alabama vs. Indiana Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Both teams enter the Rose Bowl with fairly clean bills of health. The most notable player who will be absent is Indiana DL Stephen Daley, who is their highest PFF-graded EDGE at 79.3. Facing an Alabama team that has struggled to run the ball could be some consolation.
The expectation all week was wet and rainy weather, but according to RotoGrinders’ Kevin Roth, most models call for that to be pre-game. Keep an eye on the forecast, as a wet game may favor a ground-and-pound style of Indiana as opposed to the air attack that Alabama likes to employ.
Alabama vs. Indiana Over/Under, Spread
Indiana enters Thursday’s game as 7.5-point favorites, returning a 1.36x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Alabama is the underdog with a 2.85x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (2x payout)
- Over/Under: 48.5 (1.92x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Crimson Tide 2.85x | Hoosiers 1.36x
Team Picks payouts are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Alabama vs. Indiana Prediction on Spread for Rose Bowl
Below, we’ll give you key numbers to know for an Alabama vs. Indiana pick on the PrizePicks Team Picks spread for the Rose Bowl.
- Indiana is 8-5 against the spread this season, covering by an average of 11.2 points.
- In Alabama QB Ty Simpson’s last three games, he has been pressured on 40% of his dropbacks.
- Indiana is tied for sixth in the country in sacks with 39.
- According to Pro Football Focus, Simpson’s passer rating drops from 114.6 when in a clean pocket to 79.2 when under pressure.
- Alabama ranks in the middle of FBS in defending inside zone run concepts, which is the primary run scheme that Indiana uses with RB’s Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black.
- Indiana is 3-0 ATS when playing with a rest advantage, which they will have in the Rose Bowl.
Alabama vs. Indiana Picks for Rose Bowl
Here are the top Alabama vs. Indiana picks for the Rose Bowl.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson vs. Indiana Projection: 241.5 Pass Yards
- Alabama seems to love throwing the ball, passing on 60.4% of their plays.
- Indiana’s defense is ranked 73rd nationally in contested catch rate allowed.
- As 7.5-point underdogs, Alabama could be trailing in the game, which may force them to lean even heavier on passing.
- IU is just 47th in strength of schedule, potentially inflating some of their defensive numbers.
- Simpson has an impressive 5.26% big-time throw percentage, according to PFF.
Indiana RB Roman Hemby vs. Alabama Projection: 61.5 Rush Yards
- Should Indiana get out to a lead, a favorable game script could foster a more conducive rushing environment. The weather may also factor into that.
- Indiana opts to run on 53.9% of their plays.
- Alabama’s defense ranks 113th nationally in broken tackles allowed.
- According to Game on Paper, Alabama’s defense is 28th nationally in EPA vs. the pass but 41st in EPA against the run.
Make Alabama vs. Indiana Picks on PrizePicks
Alabama vs. Indiana in the Rose Bowl presents an interesting matchup with the perennial football powerhouse Crimson Tide being significant underdogs to the recently dominant Hoosiers.
You can make picks on the winner, spread, and over/unders for the CFP on PrizePicks Team Picks. Just pick your side, lock in your pick, and earn money if you're right — now in 30 states, including California. Additionally, predict More or Less on player stat projections with PrizePicks.
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