The Arizona Wildcats (9-3) seek their sixth straight victory, traveling to San Diego to face the SMU Mustangs (8-4) in the Holiday Bowl.
The Wildcats finished 4-8 in head coach Brett Brennan’s first season in 2024, but Arizona started 3-0 in his second campaign before closing with a five-game winning streak.
The Mustangs closed the regular season with a surprising 38-35 loss at California as 13.5-point favorites. SMU’s two biggest highlights came in a 35-24 victory at Clemson and an overtime shocker over Miami, 26-20 as 10-point underdogs.
Arizona heads to its second bowl game since 2018, beating Oklahoma at the 2023 Alamo Bowl in its last appearance.
SMU’s Kevin Jennings ranked third among ACC QBs with 3,363 passing yards and announced his return for his senior season in 2026.
Let’s look at the Arizona vs. SMU prediction and picks for Friday’s Holiday Bowl at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, kicking off at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Arizona vs. SMU Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Wildcats put together a solid 8-4 against the spread record, a dramatic turn from a 2-10 ATS mark last season. SMU drilled the under in five of the first six games and compiled an 8-4 ledger.
Arizona vs. SMU Over/Under, Spread
The Mustangs enter this matchup as 2.5-point favorites, returning a 1.88x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Wildcats are underdogs with a 1.81x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: SMU -2.5
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Game Winner Payout: Arizona 1.81x | SMU 1.88x
(Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change)
Arizona vs. SMU Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you set for Arizona vs. SMU tonight, including insights on our Arizona vs. SMU prediction.
- SMU struggled from a spread perspective early on, failing to cover in the first five games.
- The Mustangs closed strong with a 5-2 ATS record, although the two losses came as a road favorite against Wake Forest and California.
- SMU scored at least 35 points in each of the final three games and topped the 30-point mark in eight contests.
- The Wildcats put together a 3-2 mark against bowl teams, including road victories over Arizona State (23-7) and Cincinnati (30-24).
- Arizona QB Noah Fifita finished fourth in the Big 12 with 2,963 passing yards. SMU ranks 60th nationally in defensive EPA/Pass and allowed at least 274 passing yards eight times.
- Jennings faces an Arizona defense sitting third in the country in EPA/Pass. The SMU junior eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark in three of the final four games.
- Arizona limited four of the final five opponents to fewer than 20 points. Last season, the Wildcats yielded less than 20 points three times, including against FCS foe Northern Arizona.
- This is the first time the Holiday Bowl has been held in January since it debuted in 1978. The ACC is 1-2 in the last three games as Syracuse defeated Washington State last season, 52-35.
Make Picks on CFB on PrizePicks
Arizona seeks its second 10-win season in the last three years, while SMU looks for its first bowl victory since 2012.
There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every CFB moment than with PrizePicks.
There are hundreds of player stat projections on the CFB board for every bowl game; just pick at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks. Or, make your picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 30 states!
Check out the Playbook throughout the season for more CFB picks, predictions, and news every day.
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