The College Football Playoff Semifinals kick off with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (12-2) against the Ole Miss Rebels (13-1) in the Fiesta Bowl, televised by ESPN on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Following an electric performance in Ole Miss’ 39-34 win in the CFP Quarterfinals against Georgia, Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss is under the spotlight for tonight’s clash. He’s the classic underdog story, beginning his collegiate play at the Division II level. Now, he's a superstar with NFL Draft buzz playing on the biggest stage.
With that in mind, let's break down some Trinidad Chambliss stats and a pick for the CFP Semis vs. Miami, including a top PrizePicks player projection for the standout Ole Miss QB.
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Trinidad Chambliss’ Path from Ferris State to Ole Miss
Coming out of high school, Chambliss wasn’t a highly-touted blue-chip recruit, going unranked in 247 Sports’ final 2021 class rankings.
That led the Grand Rapids native to make a short 56-mile trip to Big Rapids, Michigan, home of the Ferris State Bulldogs as they came off a 2021 National Championship at the Division II level. Chambliss didn't become the Bulldogs’ starter until 2024, but he still witnessed wins at the highest level, as Ferris State also won the 2022 D-II title.
In his sole season as full-time starter in 2024, Chambliss racked up 2,925 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 1,019 rushing yards, and 25 rushing TDs. Led by absurd dual-threat stats from their QB, the Bulldogs won another national title.
After being named the 2024 GLIAC Player of the Year — awarded to the most outstanding athlete in the Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (GLIAC) — Chambliss finally had his chance to make the Division 1 leap via the transfer portal.
He was once again counted out, ranked as the 843rd overall player and 60th among QBs in the portal by 247. Entering this season, Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons was handed the keys to the car but suffered an ankle injury early. Chambliss made his first D-I start against Arkansas in Week 3 and thrived by logging 353 passing yards, 62 rushing yards, and 3 total TDs.
The rest is history, as Chambliss turned in impressive performances like clockwork until it no longer seemed like a fluke. He’s become one of college football’s best, recording 0.30 EPA per dropback this season (tied for 18th), via Game on Paper.
After compiling 2,957 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 3 INTs, 449 rushing yards, and 6 rushing TDs over 10 regular-season starts, Chambliss taking the next step to the NFL is even in the picture.
Trinidad Chambliss 2026 NFL Draft Buzz
Through two CFP games, Chambliss averages 322.0 passing yards, 25.0 rushing yards, and 2.5 total TDs per game. He had perhaps his best start of the season in a Sugar Bowl win over Georgia, pitching for 362 passing yards and 2 TDs. Pro Football Focus awarded him elite 91.8 player and passing grades — his top marks of the 2025 season.
His stock is now higher than ever, drawing the attention of NFL scouts. In fact, Mel Kiper of ESPN ranks Chambliss as the fourth-best QB on his big board, one spot behind Alabama QB Ty Simpson, a borderline first-round prospect for most of the season.
The former unranked recruit has pro stock that could land him in the second or third round of the 2026 NFL Draft. However, Chambliss announced his intentions to return to Oxford on January 5. His return is pending an approved waiver from the NCAA as the senior QB lobbies for another year of collegiate football.
For now, the Rebels’ signal-caller focuses on a national title. PrizePicks Team Picks gives Ole Miss a 2.32x payout to win the national championship (third favorite), but it's a 3.5-point underdog for tonight’s Fiesta Bowl against Miami.
Can Chambliss lead the Rebs to another upset?
Trinidad Chambliss Stats, Pick for Fiesta Bowl vs. Miami
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss Projection vs. Miami: 267.5 Passing Yards
- Over 12 games as starting QB, Chambliss averages 300.1 passing yards.
- The former D-II man has reached at least 270 passing yards in nine of 12 starts (and in five consecutive appearances).
- Miami allows 6.2 yards per pass (16th) and -0.14 EPA per dropback (14th), thanks to boasting PFF’s top pass rush grade paired with the seventh-highest sack rate.
- Chambliss has excellent mobility to avoid pressure, and the Rebels rank 25th in PFF pass block grade while ceding the seventh-lowest sack clip.
- Ole Miss has faced two defenses in the top 10 of EPA per dropback allowed; the Ferris State transfer totaled 314.5 passing yards per game in the split.
- As 3.5-point underdogs, the Rebels could find themselves in a negative game script, hinting at more passing attempts for Chambliss.
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More Trinidad Chambliss Projections vs. Miami in College Football Playoff
PrizePicks is offering a wide variety of other player projections for Chambliss in the Fiesta Bowl.
- 33 Pass Attempts
- 20.5 Pass Completions
- 300.5 Passing + Rushing Yards
- 25.5 Rushing Yards
Make Miami vs. Ole Miss Picks on PrizePicks
Chambliss led the Rebels to one of the best wins in program history a week ago. Will he add to his storybook path in the CFP Semifinal meeting with Miami?
You can make Miami vs. Ole Miss picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
It's the simplest way to get real-money action on CFB action. For more coverage of the Fiesta Bowl, check out the Playbook's Miami vs. Ole Miss prediction and picks.
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