The opening game of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals takes place in Texas tonight with a battle of blue bloods, as the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) battle the Miami Hurricanes (11-2) in the Cotton Bowl.
OSU won its first 12 games before falling to Indiana in the Big Ten title game, but the Buckeyes still secured a first-round bye. Miami wasn’t a shoo-in to make the 12-team tournament but took care of business in the opening round by holding off Texas A&M, 10-3, as 3-point underdogs — their second victory in that role this year.
Let’s look at a Miami vs. Ohio State prediction and Cotton Bowl picks for Wednesday’s CFP showdown at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, kicking off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Use PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to make CFP predictions and earn real money if you're right.
Miami vs. Ohio State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Ohio State has a strong 10-2-1 against-the-spread record, while Miami compiled an 8-5 mark.
Miami vs. Ohio State Over/Under, Spread
The Buckeyes enter this matchup as 9.5-point favorites, returning a 1.25x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Hurricanes are underdogs with a 3.7x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Ohio State -9.5
- Over/Under: 39.5
- Game Winner Payout: Miami 3.7x | Ohio State 1.25x
(Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change)
Miami vs. Ohio State Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you set for Miami vs. Ohio State tonight, including insights on our Miami vs. Ohio State prediction.
- Since 2023, the Hurricanes are 4-2 ATS in the underdog role. This is the most points UM is receiving since closing as 6.5-point underdogs in a 28-20 overtime triumph against Clemson two seasons ago.
- Head coach Mario Cristobal’s squad has won five straight games since falling at SMU in overtime. In this span, Miami has allowed 44 points, its best five-game defensive stretch of 2025.
- Ohio State covered in all three opportunities as a single-digit favorite in the regular season. They defeated Texas (14-7), Washington (24-6), and Michigan (27-9) before falling to Indiana.
- OSU’s defense is the top unit in the country, allowing 213.5 yards and 8.2 points per contest. Illinois scored the most points against Ohio State, putting up just 16 on Oct. 11.
- The Buckeyes are the top team in EPA/pass, according to GameOnPaper.com, but fall to 79th in EPA/rush. The Hurricanes’ defense sits 18th in EPA/pass, a nice jump from 54th last season.
- During last year's championship run, Ohio State covered all four times as a favorite, with each victory coming by double-digits.
Miami vs. Ohio State Picks for Cotton Bowl
Here are three top Miami vs. Ohio State picks to target on Wednesday. Key PrizePicks projections are headlined by three players: Miami QB Carson Beck, Ohio State QB Julian Sayin, and Hurricanes WR Malachi Toney.
Miami QB Carson Beck vs. Ohio State Projection: 192.5 Passing Yards
- The senior posted 3,175 passing yards, his fewest in three years as a starting QB. Beck set a career-high for completion percentage in 2025 at 74.5%.
- In the windy conditions at Texas A&M on Dec. 20, Beck was limited to season-lows in completions (14), attempts (20), and yards (103).
- In 10 of 13 games, the Jacksonville native racked up at least 193 passing yards. He faces an OSU defense that allowed more than 200 passing yards just twice to Illinois QB Luke Altmyer (248) and Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (222).
- The Buckeyes (17th) are the third defense Miami will face that sits in the top 30 nationally in EPA/pass. The other two squads were Texas A&M and Louisville; Beck was intercepted four times and threw for 271 yards in a 24-21 setback to the Cardinals.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin vs. Miami Projection: 236.5 Passing Yards
- Sayin stepped up in his freshman season, putting up 3,323 yards and finishing as one of the finalists for the Heisman Trophy.
- The California native posted six games of at least 300 passing yards, including a career-high 393 yards in a 34-0 shutout of Wisconsin on Oct. 18.
- Miami ranks 18th defensively in EPA/pass and allowed at least 237 passing yards in five of 13 games.
- OSU faced two defenses in the top 50 of that category: Indiana and Penn State. Sayin posted 258 yards against the Hoosiers in the Big Ten championship and 316 yards against the Nittany Lions in a 38-14 rout.
Miami WR Malachi Toney vs. Ohio State Projection: 62.5 Receiving Yards
- The dynamic freshman was held to 22 receiving yards against Texas A&M, but scored the go-ahead TD in the final two minutes.
- Toney posted a pair of 100+ yard receiving performances in the final two regular season games against Virginia Tech (146) and Pittsburgh (126).
- The South Florida native bypassed this projection eight times, grabbing at least 6 receptions in each of those games.
- Ohio State has given up at least 63 receiving yards to three players. The highest output was 126 yards by Indiana WR Charlie Becker in the Big Ten title game.
Make Miami vs. Ohio State Cotton Bowl Picks on PrizePicks
The first berth for the CFP semifinals will be determined tonight at Jerry’s World in Arlington. Can the Hurricanes knock out the defending champion Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl? There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every CFB moment than with PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks.
Just pick More or Less on at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks. Or, make your picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
Check out the Playbook throughout the season for more CFB picks, predictions, and news every day.
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