Saturday's UFC Fight Night touches down in Mexico City as Brandon Moreno faces Lone’er Kavanaugh in an emotionally charged flyweight main event at UFC Mexico on February 28.
Tonight's main card action kicks off from the Arena CDMX, featuring a stacked lineup of hungry UFC fighters ready to make their mark inside the Octagon. Main card is set to start at 8 p.m. EST on Paramount+.
Most notably, many fighters will get the opportunity to fight in front of their home crowd, as every main card fight features a fighter representing Mexico.
Below are our UFC Mexico predictions and picks for Moreno vs. Kavanagh and every fight on the UFC Fight Night main card. Make your UFC picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on winners, method of victory, and more!
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UFC Mexico Predictions, Payouts for Moreno vs. Kavanaugh, Main Card Fights
Brandon Moreno returns to home soil for a high-stakes flyweight clash against Lone’er Kavanagh, a flyweight prospect who suffered his first defeat in his last fight.
Kavanaugh is seeking the biggest win of his career on enemy soil. This UFC Mexico main event carries massive implications for the 125-pound title picture, as Moreno looks to re-establish his championship credentials.
Meanwhile, the main card is loaded with action-friendly bouts featuring fighters repping Mexico.
The bantamweight co-main event features crowd-favorite Marlon “Chito” Vera and David Martinez, following a lightweight scrap pitting Daniel Zellhuber against King Green.
The UFC Mexico card also features a pair of flyweight fights, as Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes and Imanaol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas go head-to-head. To kick off the main card, we get surging Mexican prospect Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco in a bantamweight bout.
Below, you can check out our UFC Mexico predictions and picks for Moreno vs. Kavanaugh, as well as the main card fights.
UFC Mexico Main Card Winner Payouts for Saturday, February 28
Below are the payouts for each fight on the UFC Mexico main card. With PrizePicks Team Picks, you can make predictions on winners, method of victory, and more for each fight at UFC Mexico, now available in 34 states.
Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanaugh – Main Event: Flyweight (125 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Brandon Moreno 1.42x | Lone’er Kavanagh 2.63x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanaugh Prediction
Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez – Co-Main Event: Bantamweight (135 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Marlon Vera 3.12x | David Martinez 1.33x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez Prediction
Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green – Lightweight (155 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Daniel Zellhuber 1.2x | King Green 4x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green Prediction
Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes – Flyweight (125 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Edgar Chairez 1.28x | Felipe Bunes 3.03x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes Prediction
Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas – Flyweight (125 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Imanol Rodriguez 1.25x | Kevin Borjas 3.7x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas Prediction
Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco – Bantamweight (135 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Santiago Luna 1.17x | Angel Pacheco 4.54x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco Prediction
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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UFC Mexico Predictions for Every Main Card Fight
Here are the top UFC Mexico predictions and UFC picks to target on PrizePicks for the UFC Fight Night on Saturday, February 28.
Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Pick for UFC Mexico
Brandon Moreno – 92.5 Significant Strikes
- Moreno lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute over his 19 UFC fights.
- Kavanagh absorbs 3.69 significant strikes per minute across his three UFC appearances.
- In his last UFC outing against Charles Johnson, Kavanagh surrendered 44 significant strikes in just 9:35 minutes while getting knocked out in round two.
- Moreno holds the all-time record for most significant strikes landed in UFC flyweight history (1,226), built on relentless pace and output.
- With this fight projected to go the full 25 minutes, there will be ample time for Moreno to showcase his volume where he’s surpassed his 92.5 projection in four out of his last five fights.
Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez Pick for UFC Mexico
David Martinez – 76.5 Significant Strikes
- Chito absorbs a brutal 5.37 significant strikes per minute throughout his 25-fight UFC career.
- Martinez lands at a torrid 4.85 significant strikes per minute, well above the UFC bantamweight average of 4.08.
- In his last UFC fight against Rob Font, Martinez attempted 155 total strikes, dominating the output battle against a fellow high-volume striker.
- Vera's significant strike defense sits at just 49%, meaning he fails to avoid roughly half of all significant strikes thrown at him.
- Over a projected 15-minute fight, Martinez needs to average just 5.10 significant strikes per minute to surpass his projection of 76.5.
Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green Pick for UFC Mexico
Daniel Zellhuber – 68.5 Significant Strikes
- King Green absorbs 3.64 significant strikes per minute in his 28-fight UFC career.
- Zellhuber lands at 5.83 significant strikes per minute, well above the UFC lightweight average of 4.46, establishing him as one of the division's most relentless volume strikers.
- Green hasn’t fought a prolific volume striker like Zellhuber since his 2022 fight against Nasrat Haqparast, who landed 76 significant strikes in a primarily kickboxing affair.
- Over a projected 15-minute fight, Zellhuber needs to average just 4.57 significant strikes per minute to land 69 significant strikes, which would be the fourth time he’s done so in his UFC career.
- With this fight favored to see the judge’s scorecards, if Zellhuber can just keep on pace, he could potentially put on a clinic in a striking match against Green at UFC Mexico.
Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes Pick for UFC Mexico
Chairez vs. Bunes – 10 Minutes (Fight Time)
- Chairez owns a 100% finish rate in his MMA career, stopping all 12 of his wins before the final bell.
- Bunes has been finished in three of his eight career losses, showing a consistent vulnerability to being stopped under pressure.
- Both Chairez (8:56) and Bunes (8:52) average fight time is less than ten total minutes.
- Chairez’s defense is a major vulnerability as he absorbs 5.08 significant strikes per minute with just a 42% striking defense. This gives the long, rangy Bunes to land his strikes as Chairez presses forward.
- Bunes, on the other hand, hasn’t faced an opportunistic grappler like Chairez inside the Octagon. If for one second Bunes leaves his neck or a limb out there, he will snatch up a submission, just like he’s done in two of his last three fights in the first round.
Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas Pick for UFC Mexico
Rodriguez vs. Borjas – 8.75 Minutes (Fight Time)
- Borjas has seen the judge’s scorecards in four out of his last five fights inside the Octagon, including DWCS.
- Rodriguez absorbs just 2.73 significant strikes per minute with a solid 60% strike defense. With Borjas lacking the one-shot KO power, it will be difficult for him to put Rodriguez away.
- Borjas owns a 71% takedown defense, giving him enough defensive grappling ability to neutralize scrambles and force extended stand-up exchanges that chew clock past the 8.75-minute mark.
- Both Rodriguez and Borjas have shown impeccable durability in their careers with 1 KO loss between the two of them.
Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco Projection: Santiago Luna 34.5 Significant Strikes
- Pacheco absorbs an insane 11.47 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, with a porous 41% striking defense.
- Luna lands at 5.36 significant strikes per minute, meaning he only needs to average 2.30 significant strikes per minute to surpass his 34.5 projection.
- In his last UFC fight against Caolán Loughran, Pacheco has surrendered a combined 344 significant strikes in his two UFC bouts against Caolan Loughran and Danny Silva.
- Luna's 37% striking accuracy is built on volume and forward pressure. Against Pacheco's 41% strike defense, even his missed shots force reactions that open up clean landing opportunities.
- While Luna has finished all seven of his opponents, Pacheco has never been finished in his ten-fight MMA career and has built his game around his durability and being able to withstand his opponent’s early onslaught to drag them into deep waters.
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Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks
UFC Fight Night from Mexico City is headlined by Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh in the main event. UFC Mexico is set to bring us an exciting card of fights on Saturday, with eight fighters taking the Octagon in their home country.
Before the UFC action gets started on Paramount+, don't forget to lock in your fight picks.
Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections UFC Mexico: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh, and win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued UFC picks, predictions, and news.
