The Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies is set to get underway at 1:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 11, televised by FS1, with the Phillies returning a 1.69x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Diamondbacks were able to dig themselves out of an early hole against the Phillies in the series opener. Arizona tagged Philadelphia SP Jesus Luzardo for five earned runs in the fifth inning and came away with a comeback 5-4 road win on Friday.
Below, we'll break down our Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction and picks for Saturday’s MLB game, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, April 11
In the second game of the series, Phillies SP Taijuan Walker (5.02 xFIP across 9.2 innings in 2026) and Diamondbacks SP Brandon Pfaadt (4.35 xFIP in 10.2 innings) will face off on the mound.
It may not be a huge sample size, but Walker has struggled mightily to begin the 2026 campaign. According to Baseball Savant, Walker has posted an xERA of 7.34, which ranks in just the eighth percentile among MLB pitchers.
The Diamondbacks’ offense has been inconsistent at times. Arizona ranks 24th in both wRC+ (85) and wOBA (.298) through the early portion of the 2026 season.
Meanwhile, despite Pfaadt logging a lofty 6.75 ERA in his first two starts in 2026, he's produced a strong 2.95 xERA (71st percentile). The veteran right-hander has posted a 59.5% ground ball rate, which ranks in the 90th percentile.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, April 11
The Phillies enter Saturday’s game as home favorites against the Diamondbacks, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Phillies -1.5 (2.43x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.81x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Diamondbacks 2.04x | Phillies 1.69x
Play the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Prediction on Over/Under – 4/11/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction on the over/under for Saturday, April 11.
Lock in your Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Diamondbacks and Phillies.
- The over holds a 3-1 mark in four Philadelphia home games thus far during the 2026 season.
- Citizens Bank Park is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors, producing the fifth-most runs (104) since the 2024 season.
- According to Baseball Savant, Phillies SP Taijuan Walker has allowed a 29.3% hard-hit rate, which ranks in the 79th percentile this season.
- Walker has racked up a 7.34 xERA after allowing 10 total earned runs across his first two starts in 2026.
- In his last outing vs. the Colorado Rockies, the veteran right-hander gave up four earned runs on three home runs in a 4-1 loss.
- The Diamondbacks bullpen has struggled, producing a 5.01 xERA (26th in the majors) and a 4.05 xFIP (16th).
- The over has been very kind to Arizona with a 9-4 mark in 2026, while the over carries a 7-5 record overall for Philadelphia.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 4/11/26
Here are the top Diamondbacks vs. Phillies picks to target on PrizePicks for Saturday, April 11. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Bryce Harper and Nolan Arenado.
Phillies 1B Bryce Harper vs. Diamondbacks Projection: 1.5 Total Bases (Demon)
- In Friday’s 5-4 loss, Harper went 2 for 4 with an RBI double and a single against Diamondbacks pitching.
- Harper has thrived against the Diamondbacks throughout his MLB career. In 74 career games, Harper has produced a .332 batting average to go along with 9 home runs, 36 RBIs, and 47 runs scored.
- Following a slow start in 2026, Harper is 7 for 13 with 4 RBIs over his last four contests.
- The Phillies' 1B has registered a 13.2% barrel rate, ranking in the 81st percentile.
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Diamondbacks 3B Nolan Arenado vs. Phillies Projection: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- In Friday’s contest, Arenado went 0 for 4 and struck out against SP Jesuz Luzardo in the fourth inning.
- In 44 at-bats, Arenado has registered a wRC+ of 25, per FanGraphs.
- Arenado has tallied just a 30.0% hard-hit, which ranks in the 18th percentile.
- Arenado is hitting .197 (27 for 137) with just 8 home runs and 20 RBIs in 34 career games at Citizens Bank Park.
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Plenty of runs could land on the scoreboard for the second consecutive day when the Phillies host the Diamondbacks. Will the Phillies be able to bounce back after letting Friday’s game slip out of their grasp?
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Diamondbacks vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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