The Miami Marlins (8-7) and Detroit Tigers (6-9) are wrapping up a three-game series on Sunday, April 12, at 1:40 p.m. ET, with the Tigers returning a 1.49x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they secure a victory.
The Tigers have won the first two games of the series, so the Marlins are hoping to avoid the sweep on Sunday.
Below, we'll break down our Marlins vs. Tigers prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Marlins vs. Tigers on PrizePicks now.
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Marlins vs. Tigers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, April 12
To close out the series, fans will be treated to Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara (3.58 xFIP across 3 starts and 24.1 IP in 2026) and Tigers SP Tarik Skubal (2.60 xFIP across 3 starts and 17.2 IP) facing each other on the mound.
After a disappointing 2025 campaign where he was coming off an injury, Alcantara has a ton of red on his Baseball Savant page to begin the 2026 MLB season, ranking in the 98th percentile in xERA (1.35) and 93rd percentile in xBA (.156).
Along with Alcantara pitching into the seventh inning in each of his three starts this year, Miami’s bats have the eighth-best wRC+ (106), fifth-best wOBA (.328), and fifth-lowest strikeout rate (19.9%), per FanGraphs.
Skubal is sitting in just the ninth percentile in xBA (.310) and 51st percentile in strikeout rate (22.5%) over his first three starts, but his fastball velocity (97.6 MPH) is still around where it was last season, so there shouldn’t be much concern yet.
Detroit’s bats have also been solid, logging the 11th-best wRC+ (101) and 13th-best wOBA (.312).
Marlins vs. Tigers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, April 12
The Tigers enter Sunday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.49x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Marlins vs. Tigers game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Tigers -1.5 (2.12x payout)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Marlins - 2.5x | Tigers - 1.49x
Play the Marlins vs. Tigers spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Marlins vs. Tigers Prediction on Over/Under – 4/12/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Marlins vs. Tigers prediction on the run total for Sunday, April 12.
Lock in your Marlins vs. Tigers prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- After coughing up 2 ER in his first start of the new season, Alcantara has given up 0 ER across his last 2 starts and 16.0 IP.
- Despite Skubal holding a 38th percentile xERA (4.33), his last start put a dent in his metrics, as he surrendered 4 ER in 4.2 IP.
- Over his other 2 starts and 13.0 IP, Skubal coughed up a combined 1 ER.
- Skubal will also be making his season debut at Comerica Park on Sunday, and he tallied a 2.59 xFIP, 34.1% strikeout rate, and 0.62 HR/9 at home in 2025, per FanGraphs.
- Comparatively, he had a 2.74 xFIP, 30.2% strikeout rate, and 1.05 HR/9 on the road.
- If Alcantara doesn’t pitch the entire game, the Marlins’ bullpen is fifth in xERA (3.36) and first in BABIP (.228).
- On the other side, Skuball will hand the ball over to a Tigers bullpen that has the 11th-best xERA (3.77) and fourth-best BABIP (.238).
- Last season, Miami had the eighth-worst wRC+ (82), eighth-worst wOBA (.289), and third-worst ISO (.124) against left-handed pitching.
Marlins vs. Tigers Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 4/12/26
Here are the top Marlins vs. Tigers picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, April 12. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Sandy Alcantara and Austin Slater.
Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara vs. Tigers Projection: 5.5 Hits Allowed
- Even though Alcantara has at least 7.0 IP in each of his first three starts in 2026, he’s allowed fewer than 6 hits in all three outings.
- Over his last 18 starts dating back to June of the 2025 campaign, Alcantara has permitted fewer than 6 hits in 12 of those 18 contests.
- Alcantara’s 72nd percentile ground ball rate (50.8%) paired with his 81st percentile barrel rate allowed (1.6%) helps keep the ball out of the air and limits the potential damage from Detroit’s bats.
- The Tigers have only gotten 6 or more hits against six of the 15 starting pitchers they’ve faced so far this season.
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Marlins OF Austin Slater vs. Tigers Projection: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Although Austin Slater is expected to bat leadoff against Skubal, he’s recorded only 2 hits this season.
- Slater has posted a 78 wRC+ or worse and a .280 wOBA or worse in each of his last two seasons.
- Over his first 20 PAs in 2026, Slater has a woeful -27 wRC+, .127 wOBA, and 40.0% strikeout rate.
- Plus, Slater is in danger of being subbed out once a right-handed reliever enters the game, as he’s yet to have more than 3 PAs in a game this year.
Add Austin Slater to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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It will be a pitcher’s duel with Alcantara and Skubal on the bump for the series finale between the Marlins and Tigers on Sunday, so runs could be tough to come by. Will Detroit complete the sweep in front of their home fans?
Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Marlins vs. Tigers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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