Week 3 of college football is loaded with big games, but none are more important than No. 16 Texas A&M vs. No 8 Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. In a rematch from 2024, the Aggies led by QB Marcel Reed will travel to South Bend to take on Notre Dame, coming off a bye week.
Below, we’ll give you a full Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame prediction in the featured game on the Week 3 night slate, plus PrizePicks picks for CFB DFS, including QB Marcel Reed, WR KC Concepcion, and RB Jeremiyah Love.
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Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Stats
If the Fighting Irish want to set themselves up for a College Football Playoff big, this game looks like a must-win after they dropped their Week 1 game to Miami. The Irish have no more top 25 teams on their schedule after this game. A loss here makes their path the Playoff murky at best.
The Irish will start freshman CJ Carr at QB in Week 3, who is still somewhat of an unknown. However, he fared well in his debut vs. Miami, with 221 yards, 2 pass TDs, and one INT on the road.
Carr’s competence in his debut was especially impressive considering that the Irish failed to get the run game going at all, as RB Jeremiyah Love rushed just 10 times for 33 yards — showing signs of lingering knee and hamstring injuries.
For Texas A&M, this is QB Marcel Reed’s moment; a solid game in a win here immediately elevates him in the top tier of SEC QBs. While Reed had plenty of big games last year from an individual standpoint — over 250+ combined pass and rush yards in six of his eight starts — he is still seeking his first signature win.
In his freshman season, he ranked 30th among QBs in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, according to Game on Paper. That put him above Cade Klubnik, Quinn Ewers, Jalen Milroe, and LaNorris Sellers.
One game the sophomore QB didn’t get an opportunity in? Last year’s loss to Notre Dame. Although it’s as a dog on the road, this is his chance to capture that first big win and put his name on the map.
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Texas A&M Stats
Since the Aggies have played two games — vs. UTSA and Utah State — we will use their 2025 stats here, via Game on Paper. Considering their first two matchups, the raw numbers are rather underwhelming.
Texas A&M Offense Stats:
- 0.14 Adj EPA/Play (11th)
- 8.26 Yards/Dropback (41st)
- 45.8% Pass Success Rate (55th)
- 5.67 Yards/Rush (49th)
- 47% Rush Success Rate (38th)
- 1 QB Hit, 6 QB Hurries allowed
Regardless of the underlying metrics, it’s at least somewhat concerning for the Aggies’ defense that they gave up an average of 23 points to two offenses that ranked 103rd and 44th respectively in adjusted EPA/play in 2024.
Texas A&M Defense Stats:
- -0.07 Adj EPA/Play (22nd)
- 4.01 Yards/Dropback (12th)
- 5.60 Yards/Rush (110th) — gave up a 75-yard TD to UTSA RB Robert Henry Jr.
- 15.0% Havoc Rate (31st)
Notre Dame Stats
Notre Dame has played just one game in 2025 vs. Miami, a 27-24 loss.
As mentioned above, Carr passed for 221 yards — 7.4 yards per attempt — in that game. The Irish averaged just 3.3 yards on the ground, including a 30-yard run from RB2 Jadarian Price.
Notre Dame did have some issues on the offensive line vs. Miami, with an abysmal 25.1 pass blocking grade and a 52.6 overall grade.
The abysmal pass blocking grade in particular makes Carr’s numbers all the more impressive; 100 of his 221 passing yards came under pressure, as he completed 5-of-8 passes. He also had zero turnover worth plays — all vs. a Miami defense that ranked 9th in havoc rate in 2024.
As noted by PFF, the Irish defensive line also struggled vs. Miami; the 18.8% pressure rate was the lowest the Irish have had in a single game in three years.
The Irish defense gave up 9.8 yards per attempt through the air vs. Miami QB Carson Beck, but they did keep the ground game in check, giving up just 3.13 yards per rush.
Here’s how the Notre Dame offense ranked in 2024, via Game on Paper:
- 0.12 Adj EPA/Play (18th)
- 6.81 Yards/Dropback (66th)
- 6.71 Yards/Rush (2nd)
Here’s how the Notre Dame defense ranked in 2024:
- -0.23 Adj EPA/Play (2nd)
- 5.68 Yards/Dropback (18th)
- 4.75 Yards/Rush (55th)
- 11.9% Havoc Rate (
Notably, Notre Dame had only a 5.9% havoc rate in the game vs. Miami — that ranks 133rd in college football.
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Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame Prediction
On paper, Texas A&M has edges all over the place, including the always important QB position. In practicality, Notre Dame has three key advantages; at home, coming off a bye week, and coach Marcus Freeman’s 3-0 record vs. SEC schools.
Having an extra week of rest can give teams a leg up, but it matters less at this point in the season, where everyone still has fresh legs.
What a week of rest can’t make up for is the abysmal play in the trenches on both sides of the ball; if the performance against Miami is an indication of how the Irish OL/DL will perform, that’s going to be a problem vs. a Texas A&M defense that returns over 70%+ of its production and ranked 11th in havoc rate in 2024.
Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame Picks for PrizePicks
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Texas A&M WR KC Concepcion Projection: 43.5 Receiving Yards
Texas A&M made a huge move to grab receivers in the transfer portal this offseason — another piece that separates them from the team that lost to Notre Dame last year. KC Concepcion is a key piece of that.
The more that Concepcion and Reed play together, the more I think this duo will tap into massive upside. The NC State transfer has put up more than 70 yards in each of his first two games at Texas A&M, averaging 16.1 yards per reception.
He’s scored three receiving TDs across two games and added another TD via punt return.
Concepcion is playing almost 50% of his snaps in the slot. In Week 1, Miami slot WR Malachi Toney put up 82 yards, with 94% of his snaps coming from the slot. He was one two Miami receivers to hit 45+ yards receiving.
Even at NC State last year, albeit in a much different situation, Concepcion had success vs. powerhouse defense; vs. Tennessee (11th in EPA/dropback defense) he had 5 receptions for 53 yards; vs. Clemson (26th) he had 5 for 40 yards.
As seen by his punt return TD, Concepcion has explosiveness and speed that can break a game open, which is something the Aggies may need here.
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Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed Projection: 195.5 Pass Yards / 34.5 Rush Yards
There’s a lot to like about both Reed’s pass yards and rush yards projections in this matchup. Reed ranks 29th in EPA thus far in 2025, putting up 286 total yards vs. Utah State and 328 vs. UTSA. Of course, this is a much tougher matchup than those ones.
Let’s take a look at Reed’s rushing projection first. Reed averaged 54.3 rush yards per game in 2024, exceeding this projection in all but one of his starts. Going back to last year, Reed has rushed for at least 35 yards in eight straight starts.
Against Texas’ 11th ranked rush defense (EPA/rush), Reed rushed 14 times for 60 yards; against Auburn (27th) he rushed 21 times for 66 yards.
The only slight concern here is that Reed is a bit dinged up, as he left last week’s game early. However, he practiced this week and seems to be fully good to go.
Now, for Reed’s pass yards projection. Since taking over the Aggies starting job last year. Reed has passed for at least 206 yards in every game — only going less than 200 yards vs. Texas’ shutdown pass D that was first in yards per dropback allowed in 2024.
More important than past results, Reed’s completion percentage is up to 66.1% so far this year, with no turnover worthy throws in those two games.
Reed has also found success in play action passes, which Texas A&M featured heavily vs. UTSA. In a game that Texas A&M will try to control, often keeping the ball on the ground when it can, Reed’s success in play action could pay dividends for the Aggies.
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Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love Projection: 79.5 Rush Yards
Admittedly, there are some unknowns with Love’s situation. His 10 carries in Week 1 vs. Miami were a bit puzzling; especially as RB Jadarian Price had six carries of his own.
That seemed to be a product of the game plan, as Miami’s front pushed around the Notre Dame offensive line. Notre Dame also trailed Miami 21-7 in the middle of the 3rd quarter after a drive that chewed up over seven minutes. But it was still shocking, and shouldn't be the norm.
Love is widely considered to be one of the best running backs in college football; there’s no reason the Irish shouldn’t lean into that here, especially in a must-win game with a freshman QB making his second start.
Additionally, Texas A&M looks very vulnerable on the ground so far this year, with a 0.09 EPA per rush — ranking 111th nationally. While that may be a product of sample size, the Aggies were 42nd in the same stat in 2024 as well.
Love rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries vs. the Aggies last year; Price had eight carries in that game as well.
Make Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame Picks on PrizePicks
There’s loads of talent on both sides of this top 25 matchup between Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame on Saturday night from South Bend, headlining an incredible slate of Week 3 night games.
Texas A&M will lean on sophomore QB Marcel Reed and RB Le’Veon Moss, while Notre Dame is putting its trust in QB CJ Carr and RB Jeremiyah Love to stay squarely in the Playoff conversation.
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