The NCAA Tournament will arrive before you know it, as Selection Sunday is on March 15. With about three weeks remaining in the regular season, it’s last call for teams to put finishing touches on their resumes.
Bubble teams for March Madness are coming into focus. Which teams are among the last four in and first four out?
Let’s look at the latest bubble watch update for 2026 March Madness, paired with each team’s payout to earn an NCAA Tournament berth on PrizePicks Team Picks.
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NCAA Bubble Watch Update for 2026 March Madness
Beginning with our last four in, two high-major and two mid-major squads make the list. Here’s a look at each team’s payout to earn a Round of 64 bid, followed by analysis.
Last Four In
Round of 64 Qualifiers
- Georgia Bulldogs: Yes 1.49x | No 2.27x
- TCU Horned Frogs: Yes 2.38x | No 1.42x
- San Diego State Aztecs: Yes 1.29x | No 2.85x
- Santa Clara Broncos: Yes 1.75x | No 2x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Georgia Bulldogs
According to Joe Lunardi of ESPN, the SEC is tied with the Big Ten for the most bids in the bracket (10). The Georgia Bulldogs (17-8) are on track to be one of those bids, ranked 39th in the NCAA’s NET Rankings.
With a 1-5 record in the last six games, Georgia has fallen in the pecking order. It has two top-25 matchups remaining against No. 19 Vanderbilt and No. 25 Alabama. Plus, the Bulldogs have a challenging road test against Kentucky on Tuesday, February 17.
TCU Horned Frogs
Thanks to an ongoing three-game winning streak, the TCU Horned Frogs (16-9) are tracking to make the field. February 10’s 62-55 win against No. 6 Iowa State was a massive resume booster.
The Horned Frogs are 45th in NET Rankings, with a 5-6 quad 1 record — defined by a top-30 team at home, a top-50 team on a neutral site, or a top-75 team on the road. TCU has a favorable schedule to close the season, with No. 13 Texas Tech as the final ranked opponent on deck.
San Diego State Aztecs
The San Diego State Aztecs (17-6) rank 41st in NET Rankings, but they’re only 1-4 in quad 1 games. The Aztecs (12-2 conference record) could avoid an at-large bid by winning the Mountain West.
Utah State (12-2) and New Mexico (10-4) are San Diego State’s primary competition for the Mountain West Tournament, tipping off on March 11. The Aztecs have one matchup with Utah State and New Mexico in their final six regular-season collisions.
Santa Clara Broncos
Unlike San Diego State, the Santa Clara Broncos (21-6) may fall short of winning the West Coast Conference (WCC). February 14’s bout with No. 11 Gonzaga was a prime opportunity for the Broncos to grab a big-time win, but they lost 94-86.
Gonzaga continues to dominate the WCC with a 13-1 conference record. Santa Clara has three regular-season games left, including February 25’s clash with Saint Mary’s, another potential bubble team. The Broncos are 42nd in NET Rankings while Saint Mary’s is 26th; this could be a must-win for Santa Clara.
First Four Out
We’ve focused on teams on track to appear in the NCAA Tournament, but what about squads that must surpass expectations to earn a berth?
Round of 64 Qualifiers
- Ohio State Buckeyes: Yes 2.5x | No 1.44x
- Missouri Tigers: Yes 2.43x | No 1.42x
- VCU Rams: Yes 2.85x | No 1.33x
- West Virginia Mountaineers: Yes 3.7x | No 1.2x
Ohio State Buckeyes
A couple of signature wins could be enough to push the Ohio State Buckeyes (16-9) into the field, as it’s currently 0-6 against teams in the top-25 of the AP Poll.
Ranked 38th in NET Rankings, the Buckeyes carry a one-point loss vs. North Carolina, a 3-point loss vs. Nebraska, and a 4-point loss vs. Virginia. Ohio State has three upcoming top-25 opponents, including Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue. Will the Buckeyes boost their 0-8 quad 1 record?
Missouri Tigers
The Missouri Tigers (17-8) are 66th in NET Rankings, and Bart Torvik ranks Mizzou 49th in efficiency metrics. It began the new year with a bang, defeating Florida and Kentucky on the road. The Gators are up to ninth in NET Rankings, while the Wildcats are 28th.
This pair of quad 1 wins could be keeping the Tigers afloat, and they’ve found momentum with a 3-1 record in the last four games. Missouri could add to its 3-4 quad 1 mark with Wednesday’s matchup against No. 19 Vanderbilt and Saturday’s bout vs. No. 20 Arkansas.
VCU Rams
The Atlantic 10 conference is a two-horse race between the VCU Rams (20-6) and the Saint Louis Billikens (24-1). While Saint Louis is firmly in the field by sitting 17th in the NET Rankings, VCU is 47th in the metric.
A 0-4 quad 1 record has placed the Rams among the first four out. February 20’s rematch with Saint Louis is VCU’s final quad 1 opportunity of the regular season. This may be a must-win on the road.
West Virginia Mountaineers
While the West Virginia Mountaineers (16-9) are 2-3 in quad 2 matchups, they hold a solid 4-6 mark in quad 1 games. They’ve managed to grab some resume boosters, including January 10’s win over Kansas and February 14’s road win against UCF.
February 21 brings a matchup between two Big 12 bubble teams, as WVU visits TCU. The Mountaineers could also improve their 54th NET Ranking in February 28’s quad 1 opportunity against BYU.
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Make College Basketball Futures Picks on PrizePicks
As usual, expect the bubble teams to shift like the ocean tide. Every game can change where teams sit. Ohio State and more have the opportunity to shift the bubble watch on Tuesday.
Make your college basketball futures picks on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just go to the PrizePicks app, open Team Picks, make your predictions for the NCAA Tournament, and earn cash if you're right on your pick.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued College Basketball predictions, picks, and news.
