Less than 30 miles separates two foes sitting in the top half of the ACC standings heading into Tuesday’s pivotal matchup.
The North Carolina Tar Heels (20-5) have reached the 20-win mark in all five seasons since Hubert Davis took over as head coach.
The Tar Heels head to Raleigh to face a suddenly skidding North Carolina State (18-8) squad coming off consecutive defeats.
Let’s look at the North Carolina vs. North Carolina State prediction, spread, and picks for Tuesday’s tussle at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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North Carolina vs. North Carolina State Prediction, Spread, Picks
The Tar Heels swept the Wolfpack last season in two dramatically different ways. UNC held off NC State in Raleigh, 63-61 as 4.5-point favorites. In the second matchup, North Carolina rolled to a 97-73 blowout in Chapel Hill as 10.5-point favorites.
Since 2021, UNC owns an 8-2 mark against NC State. The last time the Wolfpack defeated the Tar Heels at home came in 2023 as NC State pulled away for an 77-69 triumph as 2-point favorites.
North Carolina vs. North Carolina State Over/Under, Spread
The Wolfpack enter this matchup as 7.5-point favorites, returning a 1.35x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Tar Heels are road underdogs with a 2.85x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: North Carolina State -7.5
- Over/Under: 158.5
- Game Winner Payout: North Carolina 2.85x | NC State 1.35x
(Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change)
North Carolina vs. North Carolina State Numbers to Know
Here are some facts and figures to get you set for North Carolina vs. North Carolina State today, including insights on our North Carolina vs. North Carolina State prediction.
- North Carolina bounced back from a road loss at Miami to take care of Pittsburgh, 79-65 on Saturday as 10.5-point favorites.
- The Tar Heels are 6-1 in the last seven games since consecutive Bay Area losses to Stanford (95-90) and California (84-78).
- North Carolina freshman sensation Caleb Wilson remains sidelined with a fractured left hand. Wilson ranks fifth in the ACC in scoring at 19.8 points per game (PPG).
- Both Wilson and second-leading scorer C Henri Veesaar missed the victory over Pitt. Veesaar sat out due to the flu and is questionable to return tonight.
- UNC enters Tuesday’s action tied for sixth place in the ACC with Louisville at 8-4. The Tar Heels are the only team to defeat conference leader Duke.
- NC State began conference play with an impressive 9-2 record. However, the Wolfpack were blown out at Louisville (118-77) and squandered a late lead in Saturday’s defeat to Miami (77-76).
- During the three-game winning streak prior to this two-game slide, the Wolfpack hit 41-of-95 attempts from 3-point range. In the past two losses, NC State shot 13-of-46 from deep.
- The Wolfpack have failed to cover the spread in four straight games, including three times as a favorite.
- UNC cashed in three of the last four opportunities as an underdog. The Tar Heels defeated Duke (71-68), Virginia (85-80), and Kentucky (67-64) as a dog of 6 or more points.
- The Wolfpack rank second-to-last in ACC play in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 37.1%. The only team worse than them is UNC, giving up 40% from downtown.
- Looking closer at North Carolina’s 3-point defense, the Heels went through a five-game stretch to start ACC play yielding at least 12 treys. In the past seven games, UNC hasn’t allowed an opponent to hit more than 8 shots from distance.
- Since the start of January, the Tar Heels are 9-2 to the over, including a 5-1 mark on the road.
North Carolina vs. North Carolina State CBB Player Picks
Here are three top North Carolina vs. North Carolina State picks to target on Tuesday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by three players: UNC G Seth Trimble, NC State F Darion Williams, and Wolfpack G Quadir Copeland.
North Carolina G Seth Trimble vs. NC State Projection: 15.5 Points
- The senior averages a career-high 13.9 PPG and shoots 46.5% from the floor.
- Following Wilson’s injury, Trimble stepped up against Pitt with 19 points, including 9 points from the foul line.
- In the last seven games, the four-year Tar Heel has struggled to find scoring consistency. He posted at least 16 points four times and less than 9 points three times.
- In two matchups against NC State last season, Trimble compiled 19 points. He scored 15 points in the 24-point home blowout, but was held to 4 points in the close win in Raleigh.
NC State F Darrion Williams vs. North Carolina Projection: 15.5 Points
- The senior is compiling 14.2 PPG in his first season with NC State.
- Williams scored 25 points in an 84-83 victory over SMU on February 3. In the last three games, he put up a combined 23 points and converted 4-of-18 from 3-point range.
- In five of the last six home games, the former Texas Tech standout scored less than 11 points. The outlier came in a 23-point outburst against Syracuse on January 27.
- In five instances at home since December 21, Williams shot less than 37.5% from the floor.
NC State G Quadir Copeland vs. North Carolina Projection: 20.5 Pts+Asts
- Copeland spent last season at McNeese with head coach Will Wade, averaging 9.2 PPG and 4.5 assists per contest.
- After Wade took the job at NC State, the senior followed him to Raleigh and is second on the squad in scoring at 13.8 PPG.
- Copeland posted double-digit assists in three consecutive games, including a 16-assist effort against SMU earlier this month.
- In the last two losses, the Philadelphia native failed to reach this projection. He scored 10 points and dished out 3 assists against Louisville, followed by 11 points and 5 assists against Miami.
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Make North Carolina vs. North Carolina State CBB Picks PrizePicks
There’s no better time for North Carolina State to get on track than against rival North Carolina in Raleigh for tonight’s ACC showdown.
There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every CBB moment than with PrizePicks.
There are hundreds of player stat projections on the CBB board for every game; just pick at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks. Or, make your picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states!
Check out the Playbook throughout the season for more CBB picks, predictions, and news every day.
