Qarabag FK returns to Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium as massive home underdogs in the first leg of a Champions League knockout clash. Quarabag FK will count on home support in hopes of fueling an unlikely upset against Newcastle United, currently 10th in the English Premier League table.
Newcastle United travels to Azerbaijan as clear favorites, according to PrizePicks Team Picks, with back-to-back road wins.
Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle will kick-off Champions League action at 12:45 p.m. ET in a pivotal first-leg encounter on Wednesday, Feb. 18, live on Paramount+.
Let's take a look at our Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle prediction and player picks for PrizePicks for the Champions League showdown today. Use PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to make picks on players, Champions League winners, total goals, and more!
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Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle Prediction, Picks
Under manager Gurban Gurbanov, Qarabag FK sits at a respectable 3-1-4 in the Champions League league phase. The Azerbaijan side snuck into the Champions League playoff as the 23rd seed (out of 24), despite a -8 goal differential, mostly due to a 0-6 waxing vs. Liverpool in the last matchday.
Its gritty campaign has given the club a spot in the knockout phase play-off for the first time in club history, largely fueled by their resilience in Baku, including a 2-2 draw vs. Chelsea. The point won in that game is the only reason Qarabag qualified for the knockout play-off, on its way to finishing 2-1-1 on home turf in the league phase.
However, Quarabag FK lost three of its last four Champions League fixtures, including two scoreless games vs. Napoli and Liverpool. Across the eight league phase matches, it conceded an average of 2.63 goals per match.
Newcastle United is 4-2-2 through the 2025-26 Champions League group phase under manager Eddie Howe. The Premier League side surrendered just seven goals through the league phase — less than one per game.
Newcastle has struggled at times on the road in Champions League play, losing 1-2 vs. Marseille (eliminated) and drawing 2-2 with 16-seed Leverkusen.
Wednesday's game presents a fascinating clash of styles to begin the day's Champions League action. Newcastle holds a clear advantage in squad depth and quality, but Qarabag has shown some promise vs. quality opponents at home.
Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle: Game Winner Payout
Newcastle enters Wednesday’s game as a road favorite, returning a 1.35x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if the Premier League side winsoutright.
Qarabag FK is a home underdog with a 6.66x ($666 payout on $100 entry)payout if the Azerbaijan side wins, according to PrizePicks Team Picks.
Game Winner Payout: Newcastle 1.35x | Tie 4.76x | Qarabag FK 6.66x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle United: Prediction to Win
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle United prediction on Wednesday, February 18, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Newcastle has won four of its eight matches in the Champions League league phase while averaging over 2.1 goals per game.
- Qarabag has been resilient at Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium with a 7-1-0 record in its last seven home fixtures across all competitions.
- Despite winning the Azerbaijan domestic league in 11 of the last 12 seasons, Qarabag has failed to win any of its last nine competitive meetings against English Premier League opposition.
- In its last eight games vs. EPL opponents, Qarabag has failed to score in seven of them.
- Eddie Howe’s side enters the match unbeaten in their last two games.
- Qarabag has shown defensive vulnerability by conceding in six straight games.
- Qarabag faced two EPL opponents in the league phase, conceding 8 goals between them 6 goals to Liverpool (road) and 2 goals to Chelsea (home).
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Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle Picks for Champions League: Wednesday, February 18
Here are two top Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle picks to target for Wednesday, February 18, on PrizePicks. Player picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Sandro Tonali and Camilo Durán.
Newcastle MF Sandro Tonali vs. Qarabag FK – 0.5 Goals
- Midfielder Sandro Tonali is averaging 1.14 shots per 90 minutes in the Champions League league phase.
- Qarabag’s defensive scheme frequently collapses deep, leaving the edge of the penalty area exposed, where Tonali scored both of his goals against Aston Villa.
- The Italian midfielder’s expected goals (xG) per match have climbed to 0.38 over his last five starts.
- Newcastle’s set-piece dominance creates specific opportunities for Tonali, who has already converted two second-phase balls from corners into goals during this campaign.
Qarabag FK F Camilo Durán vs. Newcastle – 1.5 Shots
- Forward Camilo Durán has been Qarabag’s primary offensive trigger in the Champions League, averaging 2.3 shots per 90 minutes.
- The Colombian winger is coming off a season-best performance against Eintracht Frankfurt, where he registered two goals on four attempts.
- Durán has two shots in five straight Champions League matches, including two games vs. EPL opposition.
- Newcastle’s away profile invites perimeter pressure, with The Magpies conceding an average of 14.5 shots per match in their last three European road fixtures.
- Given Qarabag's reliable home form — scoring 2+ goals in every UCL match at home this season — Durán may have the volume needed to notch two shots on Wednesday.
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Make Your Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle Prediction on PrizePicks
To kick off Champions League play on Wednesday, we get a matchup between a top-half English Premier League club traveling to hostile Azerbaijan for a matchup vs. Quarabag FK. Baku should be rocking for this match, as it's the first time Qarabag has made it to this stage of the Champions League.
Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle picks are just one of many ways soccer fans can get in on the UEFA Champions League action on PrizePicks for Wednesday's slate.
You can make your Champions League picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Simply predict More or Less on player projections for this UCL match to win some cash. Plus, with Team Picks now in 34 states, you can lock in Qarabag vs. Newcastle prediction on who you think will win.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued UEFA Champions League predictions, picks, and news.
