Two of the SEC’s nine ranked programs will go at it in Knoxville on Saturday evening, as #18 Oklahoma travels to face #14 Tennessee (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC).
With both teams sitting at 6-2 on the year, there’s room for movement either way in the standings. Head coach Josh Heupel’s crew owns a one-win advantage over Brent Venables and company in conference play, raising the Saturday stakes even higher.
Here, we’ll break down an Oklahoma vs. Tennessee prediction and pick for Saturday NCAAF. Use PrizePicks’ CFB game for player projections on QB John Mateer and others.
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Prediction, Preview for Saturday, 11/1
Dating back to 1939, this will be just the sixth time Oklahoma and Tennessee will face one another. 2024’s addition of the Sooners to the SEC came with plenty of hype, but the Vols gave them a not-so-friendly welcome on Sept. 21 of last season.
In a 25-15 victory, QB Nico Iamaleava and RB Dylan Sampson powered Tennessee to victory. The Volunteers stormed into Norman and held then-starting QB Michael Hawkins Jr. to 154 all-purpose yards. Things will look different this year in terms of personnel under center.
Let’s take a closer look at the Oklahoma vs. Tennessee matchup on Saturday.
Oklahoma Sooners Preview vs. Tennessee
- In their final season in the Big 12, Oklahoma posted a 10-3 record and lost in the Alamo Bowl. Year one in the SEC brought a 6-7 finish and an Armed Forces Bowl defeat.
- A hand injury to Mateer saw Hawkins start in a 44-0 win over Kent State on Oct. 4. Since Mateer’s return, however, the Sooners are just 1-2 with a -6 point differential.
- Only one SEC team (Florida) has scored fewer points in conference play than OU’s 82.
- A lackluster offense (85th in yards per game) but a dominant defense (fifth in yardage) creates a clear set of strengths and weaknesses for Oklahoma.
- The Sooners struggle to generate explosive plays, ranking in the 31st percentile according to Game on Paper.
Tennessee Volunteers Preview vs. Oklahoma
- Year five with Heupel at the helm is another strong one. Tennessee finished 10-3 last season and made the College Football Playoff, only to lose in the opening round.
- The Vols came up short in both of their opportunities to have statement games. Their 44-41 OT loss to Georgia on Sept. 13 was a heartbreaker, only to be outdone by a 37-20 drubbing at the hands of Alabama on Oct. 18.
- Tennessee, in some ways, is the inverse of Oklahoma. They rank third in scoring on offense, but are 108th on defense. They’re also the top fourth-down team in the nation at 88.89%, via Team Rankings.
- This is a grind-it-out style of team, as evidenced by Game on Paper. The Volunteers’ offense ranks in the 95th percentile in non-explosive EPA/play.
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Picks for PrizePicks
Below are prime Oklahoma vs. Tennessee picks to consider for Week 10. PrizePicks player projections include QBs John Mateer and Joey Aguilar, as well as WR Isaiah Sategna III.
Oklahoma QB John Mateer Projection: 242.5 Pass Yards
- To conclude his career at Washington State, Mateer led 2024’s five-team Independent conference in passing yards (3,139), TDs (29) and rating (164.1). His Oklahoma tenure has seen anything but a replication.
- In seven games this season, Mateer averages 255.7 passing yards. That number is just 191.7 since his return from injury, although he did throw for 223 yards and a TD last weekend.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Mateer posted a season-high 12-yard average depth of target in Week 9’s 34-26 loss to Ole Miss.
- Facing Tennessee’s porous defense could be just what the doctor ordered for Mateer. The Vols rank 119th in EPA/play against the pass and rank in the 22nd percentile in explosive pass clip allowed.
Oklahoma WR Isaiah Sategna III Projection: 76.5 Receiving Yards
- Transferring from Arkansas might have saved Sategna’s collegiate career. He’s nearly doubled his 2024 output, going from 40.9 receiving yards per game to 78.0.
- Since Mateer returned against Texas, Sategna has 17 catches for 265 yards and 2 TDs in just three games.
- Among FBS WRs with 50+ targets in 2025, Sategna ranks eighth in yards after catch with 346, via PFF. He spends more time in the slot (94.9%) than all but one of those players — DT Sheffield of Rutgers.
- According to Game on Paper, Sategna ranks 49th out of 681 qualified pass catchers in EPA (29.60).
- Tennessee’s defense sits in the 11th percentile in pass EPA/play, indicating that Sategna could be in for a nice outing.
Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar Projection: 268.5 Pass Yards
- Making the jump from Appalachian State and the Sun Belt to Tennessee and the SEC hasn’t bothered Aguilar in terms of production. He’s leading this conference in passing yards per game, too, at 293.
- Aguilar has a scorching 151.3 rating in his last four games, averaging 305 passing yards over that stretch.
- Entering Week 10, Aguilar leads the SEC in completion rate on throws 15+ yards down the field at 55.1%.
- Aguilar’s 0.33 EPA/dropback ranks ninth out of 126 passers this year, via Game on Paper.
- In fairness, Saturday could be Aguilar’s biggest test yet. Oklahoma’s pass defense is first in success rate and fifth in EPA/play.
Make #18 Oklahoma vs. #14 Tennessee Picks on PrizePicks
As one of the premier matchups of the weekend with plenty hanging in the balance, there are several intriguing Oklahoma vs. Tennessee picks to go around.
With PrizePicks’ real-money CFB game, you can get in on the Week 10 football action. Doing so is simple.
Just pick your players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and win rewards if you’re right.
Keep it here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued college football coverage.
