Two top dogs in the Big 12 collide on Monday night, as the Houston Cougars (23-2) travel to face the Iowa State Cyclones (22-3). ISU is third in the conference standings (9-3) and could carve into Houston’s (11-1) Big 12 lead with a win.
What could we expect from Monday’s prime-time 9:00 p.m. ET matchup on ESPN? The Cougars are on a six-game winning streak, while the Cyclones are 6-1 in the last seven matchups.
Let’s make a Houston vs. Iowa State prediction and Monday college basketball picks for this heavyweight clash, capped by player projections on PrizePicks.
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Houston vs. Iowa State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Since 2008, Iowa State is 4-2 in head-to-head matchups, but Houston is 2-1 in the last three collisions. The Cyclones have dominated against the spread (ATS), boasting a 5-0-1 record. The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
In a matchup between defensive-minded teams, the under is 7-3 in each squad’s last 10 games. The Cougs sport a 7-3 ATS mark over the previous 10 contests.
Houston vs. Iowa State Over/Under, Spread
In line with the defensive clash, Monday night’s bout features a low 134.5 total on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Houston is 5-1 on the road, but Iowa State boasts a perfect 14-0 home record. The Cyclones carry a home advantage, leading to a 1.63 payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones -2.5
- Over/Under: 134.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Houston 2.12x | Iowa State 1.63x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Houston vs. Iowa State Prediction on Spread
According to Bart Torvik, Houston is second in team efficiency, while Iowa State ranks eighth. Both squads feature elite defenses, with the Cougs ranked third in adjusted defensive efficiency and the Cyclones ninth.
Opponents record only 61.3 points per game against Houston (first), while ISU allows 64.5 PPG (sixth). Which offense may find the upper hand?
The Cougars are in the 81st and 60th percentiles for close-2 and 3-point shot distributions. Houston may be able to attack as it prefers — further proven by Iowa State allowing 23.4 attempted triples per game (45th percentile).
On the other end of the court, the Cyclones take only 22.8 shots from beyond the arc per game. They usually rely on getting to the rim, ranking in the 87th and 55th percentiles of dunk and close-2 shot distributions. The Cougars could have the answer by ceding a 32.3% close-2 shot distribution.
Additionally, EvanMiya gives Houston F Joseph Tugler (4.98) and F Chris Cenac Jr. (3.73) elite Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR).
Rounding out the Cougs’ potential advantage, they are in the 94th percentile of offensive rebounds per game. ISU ranks in the 66th percentile of defensive boards per matchup.
Houston vs. Iowa State Picks for PrizePicks Today: Monday, February 16
Houston F Chris Cenac Jr. defines the Cougars’ ability to get to the rim and shoot triples. Plus, Iowa State F Milan Momcilovic could give the Cyclones an angle to score in player projections for PrizePicks.
Houston F Chris Cenac Jr. vs. Iowa State Projection: 9 Points
- Cenac takes 68.2% of his shots from 2-point range, and his 6’11” frame and 7’4” wingspan should provide a height advantage for tonight. Momcilovic (6’8”) will likely be his primary defender, and his 2.53 DBPR ranks fourth in ISU’s starting lineup.
- The freshman forward also shoots 37.1% from deep and has converted at least 2 triples in two of the last three games.
- Iowa State ranks in the 21st and 27th percentiles of close-2 and 3-point shot distributions.
- Cenac has posted 11.6 PPG in his last five games.
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Iowa State F Milan Momcilovic vs. Houston Projection: 17 Points
- Houston sports an elite interior defense, but it surrenders a 42.8% 3-point shot distribution and 22.1 triple attempts per game.
- Momcilovic leads Iowa State with 7.5 3-point attempts per contest while shooting an electric 51.6% from deep.
- EvanMiya credits the junior forward with a projected 3-point percentage of 42.4%, leading the nation.
- Momcilovic averaged 20.9 PPG in his last eight games, shooting 47.9% from beyond the arc in the split.
Make Houston vs. Iowa State Picks on PrizePicks
Iowa State comes off an 18-point win over Kansas, while Houston has an average margin of +15.7 points during its six-game winning streak. Shot distributions could reveal which team to back for Monday night’s clash.
Make your Houston vs. Iowa State picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
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