Benfica returns to the cauldron of the Estádio da Luz looking to orchestrate a massive European upset, banking on their fervent home support and a resilient backline to frustrate the visiting giants.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, enters Lisbon with the swagger of perennial contenders, armed with an unmatched pedigree and a lethal counterattack built for big nights under the lights. Now, these historic heavyweights collide Tuesday, Feb. 17 at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+ in a marquee showdown.
Let's take a look at a Benfica vs. Real Madrid prediction and Tuesday UEFA Champions League picks for the clash at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. Use PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to make picks on player projections, game winners, over/unders, spreads, and more!
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Benfica vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Picks
Under manager José Mourinho, Benfica arrives at leg one of the playoffs with a 3-0-5 record in the league phase. Their European campaign has been defined by grit rather than dominance, relying on the hostile atmosphere in Lisbon to unsettle opponents, though a lack of consistent scoring punch remains a concern against top-tier competition.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, enters leg one with a solid 5-0-3 record under manager Álvaro Arbeloa's steady hand. Los Blancos have shown their trademark composure on the continent, blending veteran savvy with explosive young talent to navigate the new format, and they arrive looking to impose their will after a strong run of domestic form in La Liga.
Tuesday adds another layer to a historic Iberian rivalry steeped in European lore. Real Madrid generally dominates the historical head-to-head, but Benfica has frequently played the role of spoiler on Portuguese soil, using tactical discipline to frustrate more talented squads. With a crucial advantage in the first leg of this playoff tie at stake, both clubs understand that a mistake tonight could prove fatal.
Benfica vs. Real Madrid Game Winner Payout
Real Madrid enters Tuesday’s game as a road favorite, returning a 1.81x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Benfica is a home underdog with a 3.44x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Game Winner Payout: Real Madrid 1.81x | Tie 3.7x | Benfica 3.44x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Benfica vs. Real Madrid Prediction on Game Winner
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Benfica vs. Real Madrid prediction on Tuesday, February 17.
- Real Madrid brings an immense pedigree to the knockout stages, having advanced in 12 of their last 14 Champions League ties when playing the first leg away from home.
- Benfica has won each of their two meetings with Real Madrid, most recently coming away with the 4-2 victory on January 29.
- Álvaro Arbeloa's side has been ruthless on the road in the UCL lately, scoring at least two goals in each of their last four away matches in the tournament.
- While Benfica's home crowd provides a genuine lift, Real Madrid’s experience and superior firepower suggest that this will be a tightly contested matchup.
Benfica vs. Real Madrid Picks for PrizePicks Today: Tuesday, February 17th
Here are two top Benfica vs. Real Madrid picks to target for Tuesday, February 17th on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by Kylian Mbappé and Andreas Schjelderup.
Real Madrid Kylian Mbappé vs. Benfica Projection: 1.5 Goals
- Mbappé is scoring at a historic pace in this season's Champions League, averaging a staggering 1.86 goals per match, with 13 goals in just seven appearances.
- His underlying volume supports the multi-goal potential, as he leads the competition with 5.8 shots per 90 minutes while maintaining a lethal 55% shot accuracy.
- Benfica's defensive metrics suggest vulnerability against elite transition attacks, conceding 1.5 goals per match throughout the league phase while struggling to contain pace in wide areas.
- The French superstar has already proven his ceiling in this campaign with a pair of hat-tricks, making a brace against a leaky Portuguese backline a statistically viable play.
Benfica Andreas Schjelderup vs. Real Madrid Projection: 1.5 Shots
- The Norwegian winger has been a high-volume shooter for Benfica in domestic play, averaging 1.82 shots per 90 minutes in Liga Portugal this season.
- Schjelderup’s tendency to cut inside from the left flank aligns perfectly with a tactical vulnerability for Real Madrid, who have allowed 3.8 shots per game to opposing wingers in this year's Champions League.
- As Benfica is expected to be chasing the game at home, a scenario where Schjelderup’s shot volume historically spikes to 2.5 per 90 when his team trails.
- Real Madrid’s defense has been surprisingly porous on their travels, conceding an average of 14.75 shots per match in their last four away Champions League fixtures.
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