Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Prediction, CFB Picks for Wednesday MACtion

MACtion rolls back into the midweek spotlight on Wednesday night with Miami (OH) heading to Buffalo for a matchup between two 5-5 teams still jockeying for bowl positioning and late-season stability. 

The RedHawks try to grind opponents into uncomfortable, low-possession football, while Buffalo thrives in games that tilt toward volume, chaos, and quarterback-driven airflow.

With identical 4–2 conference marks, this one sets the tone for the MAC East’s stretch run.

Below, we break down our Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo prediction and Wednesday college football pick, also highlighting the top PrizePicks CFB picks today for this showdown set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Prediction, Preview: Wednesday, Nov. 19

Miami (OH) enters Wednesday after a 24-3 loss to Toledo, a game defined by offensive breakdowns and protection issues that placed QB Henry Hesson under constant stress. The RedHawks generated just 222 total yards, surrendered 6 sacks, and the senior signal-caller threw 3 INTs — preventing them from sustaining drives against one of the MAC’s most physical defenses.

Buffalo returns home following a 38–19 loss to Central Michigan — a game swung by 2 CMU defensive TDs and several explosive passing plays surrendered by the Bulls’ secondary. Still, the Buffalo offense showed life behind WR Nik McMillan — who recorded 122 yards and both receiving TDs in another high-volume outing.

Here’s a closer look at our Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo prediction and matchup breakdown for Wednesday night in the MAC.

Miami (OH) Preview vs. Buffalo

Miami (OH) is a team that doesn’t mind dragging you into the mud and leaving you there. Per GameOnPaper, the RedHawks sit at -0.08 EPA/play (No. 104) and embrace one of the slowest, most possession-controlled styles in the MAC.

Offensively, they know how to set the pace — and control it. Their 40.0% offensive success rate (No. 94) doesn’t overwhelm, but losing QB Dequan Finn — who’s officially “moving from the program” to train for the NFL — has left a major void. The senior led Miami to victories in four of his last five starts under center. 

Throughout the season, the RedHawks have managed to stay afloat with a 7.05 average third-down distance, paired with matching 40% success rates through the air and on the ground keeps drives alive just enough to prevent the offense from collapsing.

QB Henry Hesson finds himself in another high-pressure situation. Wednesday night could map the trajectory for the remainder of the RedHawks’ campaign, and whether or not they will punch a bowl-game ticket.

Defensively, the RedHawks play sturdier than their overall metrics suggest — allowing a 43.2% success rate (No. 89). But within that are pockets of real strength — namely, a top-50 pass defense by success rate (40.8%, No. 44). Where they’re vulnerable, though,  is on the ground. Opposing teams have churned out a bloated 46.0% rushing success rate (#126). Toledo exploited that last week with 143 yards on 32 carries and a TD. 

Buffalo could potentially do the same tonight, especially if Miami has trouble getting its QB into an early rhythm.

Buffalo Preview vs. Miami (OH)

Buffalo is a different creature entirely — more volatility, more play volume, and more willingness to let the game get weird. Their 66 offensive plays per game sits 58th in FBS (37 passing, T-26th), but the efficiency hasn’t followed — with the Bulls sitting at -0.13 EPA/play (No. 129) and 38.3% offensive success rate (No. 111). 

QB Ta’Quan Roberson posts a 0.07 EPA/play with 8 TD, 0 INTs, and has a strong rapport with McMillan (284 yards, 61% catch rate, 0.23 EPA/play) and Victor Snow (422 yards, 4 TDs, 0.26 EPA/play) has turned Buffalo’s passing game into a volume-driven attack that’s far more efficient than the rushing unit. 

Buffalo’s run game (-0.12, 123rd nationally), led by Al-Jay Henderson who has sputtered to -0.19 EPA/rush, forces the Bulls into higher-pass scripts that become predictable against disciplined defenses.

But Buffalo’s path to winning this game doesn’t run through the offense — it runs through the defense, which is one of the MAC’s sneakiest units. The Bulls rank 19th nationally in defensive success rate (38.2%), including an excellent 36.7% success rate against the run (No. 19). Their pass defense isn’t far off (39th in FBS). The unit does a good job limiting explosive plays and forcing long fields.

Buffalo’s defense gives opponents the ball at their own 26 on average (34th in FBS), and that field-position cushion is one of the key ingredients that helps shape the Bulls’ defensive identity. They make you go the long way.. No freebies.. It’s not flashy, but it’s the kind of hidden leverage that shapes how MAC games unfold in November.

Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Picks for PrizePicks Today

Here are the top Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo picks for PrizePicks CFB today, plus projections to target, for Wednesday night's MACtion.

Miami (OH) QB Henry Hesson vs. Buffalo Projection— 160.5 Passing Yards

• QB Henry Hesson enters with 489 passing yards on 76 attempts — averaging 163.0 YPG and a 42.1% completion rate.
  
• Miami (OH) averages 192.4 passing yards per game in 2025, which might give Hesson a workable ceiling when game flow pushes more volume.
  
• Buffalo is 33rd in opponent passing yards allowed per game (198.9).
• However, Buffalo has surrendered 230+ passing yards in two of its last three games.
  
• Hesson attempted 38 passes vs Toledo — the highest volume of his career — and Miami leaned into quick-game concepts once trailing. That could set Hesson up for a similar trend today.

Buffalo WR Nik McMillan vs. Miami (OH) Projection — 81.5 Receiving Yards

• WR Nik McMillan leads Buffalo in receptions (49) and yards (712), averaging 71.2 yards per game, and he’s surpassed 122 yards in two of his past three games.
  
• In Buffalo’s MAC wins — games with elevated passing volume — he’s averaged 89.0 YPG.
• His usage is consistent with Buffalo’s pass-heavy identity (even in games it has come out with a win) — the Bulls attempted 40 passes vs. Kent State, and 55 vs. UMass.
• Because Buffalo averages 34.8 passes per game (335 attempts over 10 FBS games), McMillan could maintain a stable volume floor regardless of game script.
  

Buffalo WR Jasaiah Gathings vs. Miami (OH) Projection — 37.5 Receiving Yards

• WR Jasaiah Gathings has 31 receptions for 359 yards, averaging 11.6 yards per catch, which might allow him the opportunity to haul in a few deep targets.
  
• Miami (OH) has allowed five different pass-catchers reach 40+ receiving yards in just the last two games.
  
• Gathings holds the lowest drop rate (6.1%) among Buffalo's pass catchers who've seen 11+ targets this season, per PFF.
  
• His 12.3 YPC means 3-4 receptions might be all Gathings needs in a potentially pass-friendly affair, and he’s recorded 3+ catches in four games this season.
  

Make Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Picks on PrizePicks

Wednesday night MACtion sets up a contrast in styles: Miami brings a disciplined, field-position-driven defense, while Buffalo wants to stretch the field vertically and force tempo through the air.

With PrizePicks, you can cash in on Wednesday college football action by targeting players like Henry Hesson, Nik McMillan, Jasaiah Gathings and more CFB picks.

Just pick your college football players, predict More or Less on their stat projections, and win real money if you’re right.