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2026 Genesis Invitational Picks, First Round Predictions on Thursday

Golfer Patrick Cantlay celebrates during a PGA Tour event.
AP Photo/Robert Bukaty

The PGA Tour moves from Pebble Beach down to Los Angeles this weekend for the 2026 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club, the second consecutive Signature Event of the season. The Invitational is restricted to 72 golfers, but there will be a cut this week, and all golfers will play only one course. 

Narrow fairways, tight doglegs, elevation changes, and firm, fast Poa greens make course history important here. We will also have to watch out for some potential bad weather rolling in all week for the historic 100th playing of the tournament, hosted by Tiger Woods.

Below, we'll break down our Genesis Invitational first-round picks and predictions, including first-round leader picks for PrizePicks Team Picks and golfer projections on strokes and birdies from Player Picks.

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Genesis Invitational Picks for First Round, Favorites, Payouts

After a one-year hiatus at Torrey Pines due to wildfires in L.A., the Genesis Invitational is back at Riviera, where we last saw Hideki Matsuyama win it in 2024. That year, Patrick Cantlay led after each of the first three rounds, before finishing fourth. 

Here are the payout projections for the top-10 golfers to be the first-round leader at the Genesis Invitational, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

PGA futures payouts for the Genesis Invitational first round are live as of publishing, but are subject to change.

Scottie Scheffler - 8.33x Payout ($100 pays out ~$833)

Rory McIlroy - 14.28x

Hideki Matsuyama - 22.22x 

Maverick McNealy - 22.22x

Xander Schauffele - 22.22x 

Chris Gotterup - 22.22x

Tommy Fleetwood - 22.22x 

Collin Morikawa - 22.22x 

Jake Knapp - 22.22x 

Patrick Cantlay - 22.22x

⛳️ Find our 2026 Genesis Invitational predictions + picks for the entire weekend here

2026 Genesis Invitational Picks for First Round on Thursday, February 19

Here are two golfers to consider for your Genesis Invitational first-round leader on PrizePicks Team Picks and Player Picks projections. Earn real money with your PGA Tour picks on PrizePicks, with markets like first-round leader, strokes per round, and much more. Sign up here to get $50 instantly with promo code PLAYBOOK.

Patrick Cantlay

Genesis Invitational First Round Leader Payout:  22.22x

First Round Projections: 70 strokes, 4 Birdies or Better, 11 Pars

  • Patrick Cantlay led after each of the first three rounds last year at the Genesis Invitational, including a 64 on Thursday.
  • His first round in 2024 included birdies on three of the first four holes and eight in the first 14 holes. 
  • The UCLA product has held the first-round lead in six different tournaments over the last five seasons.
  • He also led after 18 holes at this event in 2018. 
  • Cantlay is historically good at Riviera Country Club, finishing fourth in 2024 and third in 2023, his last two appearances. In seven overall appearances, Cantlay has finished in the top 17 six times. 
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Rico Hoey

Genesis Invitational First Round Leader Payout:  33.33x

First Round Projections: 71 strokes, 3.5 Birdies or Better

  • Rico Hoey and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler are the only two golfers in this field who check all of the following boxes over their last 24 rounds: top 30 in ball speed, top 10 in Par 4 scoring, and top 10 in bogey avoidance.
  • Hoey has a 66 or better in six of his past nine finished events.
  • He drew an early tee time on Thursday, which could be an advantage depending on when the bad weather comes — as of writing, heavy wind (20+ mph) is expected by early afternoon local time.
  • The Filipino has held the first-round lead three times in the last two seasons. 

Make 2026 Genesis Invitational Picks on PrizePicks

72 of the world’s best golfers will tee it up in the PGA Tour event in Los Angeles, starting Thursday at Riviera Country Club, an event hosted by Tiger Woods. 

Can Patrick Cantlay continue his strong play at Riviera? Or will a long shot jump up and take the first round lead?

It all starts with the first round on Thursday, but you can make your Genesis Invitational picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money.

Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like round score, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on tournament winners, top 5 or 10 finishers, and more, now available in 34 states.

Get in the game! Sign up for PrizePicks and cash in on your sports predictions. Play $5 and get $50 instantly in Lineups with promo code PLAYBOOK.

Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.

about the author

David Bearman spent 18 years with ESPN in their Stats & Information Department and overseeing their betting content. From 2023-25, he served as Chief Content Officer of Pro Football Network, overseeing all content, including coverage of Super Bowls 58 and 59. He is also the Founder of Betting with Bearman, a 3x a week betting newsletter and weekly podcast on Bleav Podcast Network.

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