Memphis (7–1) travels to Houston to face Rice (4–4) on Friday, Oct. 31, with kickoff set for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Tigers are pushing toward an AAC title game appearance with one of the nation’s most balanced and efficient offenses. At the same time, Rice aims to rebound in conference play and lock down bowl eligibility.
Below, we’ll break down our Memphis vs. Rice prediction and Friday NCAAF pick, also highlighting the top PrizePicks player projection targets for this key Friday night showdown.
Memphis vs. Rice Prediction, Preview: Friday, Oct. 31
Here’s a closer look at our Memphis vs. Rice preview and prediction for Friday’s AAC battle.
Memphis Preview vs. Rice
Memphis enters the game a week after a nail-biting 34–31 win over South Florida, a victory led by QB Brendon Lewis (307 yards, 2 TDs), who continues to develop into a steady dual-threat leader. The Tigers boast one of the most efficient units in the country, ranking 25th nationally in total offense (439.4 YPG) and 14th in scoring (36.6 PPG).
RB Sutton Smith (515 yards, 6 TDs) and WR Cortez Braham Jr. (566 yards, 7 TDs) headline a versatile offense that ranks 17th in rushing yards (206.0 YPG) and 63rd in passing (233.4 YPG). Their ability to control the line of scrimmage has been key — converting on 44% of third downs (38th), while boasting a +0.19 Net EPA/play (26th nationally) and a +1.09 Net EPA/drive (25th), per Game On Paper.
The Tigers rank 11th in rushing success rate (48.1%) and 21st in overall success rate (46.5%), a testament to their balance and explosiveness. Their Early Downs EPA/play (+0.25) and EPA/rush (0.31) are the best in the country, helping them stay ahead and sustain long scoring drives.
Defensively, Memphis limits opponents to a 41.5% success rate (79th) and performs better against the run (38.7%, T-52nd) than the pass, a key edge versus Rice’s ground-heavy offense.
Rice Preview vs. Memphis
Rice comes off a 37–34 win over UConn, where QB Chase Jenkins (191 yards, 77.3% completion rate) managed the offense efficiently, while RB Quinton Jackson dominated with 168 rushing yards and 3 TDs. The Owls rely on the run — ranking third nationally in rushing attempts per game (49.6) and 15th in rushing yards (208.7 YPG) — to control tempo and keep games close, but their passing attack remains one of the least productive in FBS (102.1 YPG, 135th).
While the offense struggles through the air, Rice thrives on ball control, ranking 26th nationally in time of possession (31:44). The defense, meanwhile, sits mid-pack in total yards allowed (385.6 YPG, 74th) but has serious situational flaws, 86th in opponent third- and fourth-down success (45.1%).
Rice ranks 102nd in Net EPA/play (-0.06) and 104th in Net EPA/drive (-0.36), with a 37.8% offensive success rate (121st), one of the lowest in FBS. Their passing EPA (-0.11, 115th) shows inefficiency, but the ground game is steadier (0.00 EPA/play, 76th) and accounts for nearly 70% of total yardage.
Memphis vs. Rice Best PrizePicks Targets
Memphis QB Brendon Lewis — 219.5 Passing Yards
- Memphis QB Brendon Lewis is averaging 205.5 passing yards per game and is coming off a season-high 307 yards and two touchdowns against South Florida.
- He produces 0.08 EPA per play (66th nationally) with a 45.2 percent passing success rate in a Memphis offense that ranks 25th in yards per game (439.4).
- Lewis faces a Rice defense allowing 226.7 passing yards per game and a 59.6 percent completion rate.
- He has completed 71 percent of his passes on early downs, maintaining Memphis’ +0.25 Early Downs EPA per play advantage.
- Lewis benefits from the Tigers’ 45.6 percent third- and fourth-down conversion rate, helping sustain consistent scoring drives.
Rice RB Quinton Jackson — 63.5 Rushing Yards
- Rice RB Quinton Jackson is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has surpassed 100 rushing yards in three of his eight appearances this season.
- He generates more than 40 percent of Rice’s total offensive EPA and ranks among the top 20 FBS running backs in rushing yards (655).
- Memphis allows 132.0 rushing yards per game (37th nationally) and a 38.7 percent success rate on opposing runs.
- Jackson benefits from Rice’s ball-control approach, as the Owls rank 26th in time of possession (31:44).
- He averages 14.6 carries per game and might remain heavily involved in Rice’s run-heavy offensive script.
Memphis WR Cortez Braham Jr. — 39.5 Receiving Yards
- Memphis WR Cortez Braham Jr. leads the Tigers with 566 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, averaging 15.7 yards per catch while ranking 13th nationally in receiving EPA (42.11).
- He produces 0.31 EPA per play, the highest mark among FBS wide receiver–quarterback tandems on those play types.
- Braham faces a Rice defense that sits 87th in opponent yards per pass (7.5) and ranks 41st in completion rate allowed (59.6 percent).
- Memphis’ passing game posts a nation-best +0.25 Early Downs EPA per play, creating frequent single-coverage opportunities for Braham.
- His targets typically come on intermediate posts and vertical routes, maximizing his per-catch yardage potential.
Make Your Memphis vs. Rice Picks on PrizePicks
Both teams bring contrasting styles to the game, Memphis with an explosive, efficient offense and Rice leaning on physical ground control. The Tigers’ superior drive efficiency, early-down explosiveness, and red-zone precision give them the edge, while the Owls’ clock-controlling run game will aim to slow the tempo and shorten possessions.
With PrizePicks and the Playbook, you can cash in on Friday night college football picks by targeting players like Brendon Lewis, Quinton Jackson, and Cortez Braham Jr.
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