The Miami Heat (14-7) have caught fire the last two weeks, winning seven of the last eight games.
Miami travels to the Lone Star State to face the Dallas Mavericks (7-15), who are back home after a pair of impressive road victories.
The Mavs knocked off the struggling Clippers on Saturday, 114-110, followed by a 131-121 stunner over the Nuggets on Monday.
Let’s look at the Heat vs. Mavericks prediction and picks for Wednesday night’s battle at American Airlines Center, tipping off at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV.
Heat vs. Mavericks Prediction, Preview for 12/3/25
Miami is listed as a favorite for the first time in 10 road games. The Heat enter this matchup as 4.5-point favorites, returning a 1.42x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Mavericks are home underdogs with a 2.63x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Miami Heat -4.5
- Total: 242.5
- Game Winner Payout: Heat 1.42x | Mavericks 2.63x
(Data via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Here are some stats to know to get you set for Heat vs. Mavericks tonight, including insights on our Heat vs. Mavericks prediction.
- The Heat closed out a four-game homestand with a 140-123 blowout of the Clippers on Monday. Miami knocked 24 shots from 3-point range, while four Heat players scored at least 22 points.
- During this 7-1 hot stretch, the lone loss for head coach Erik Spoelstra’s team came last Saturday against Detroit at home, 138-135.
- Heat G Tyler Herro is averaging 24.8 points per game since returning to the lineup on November 24.
- Miami held off Dallas, 106-102 at Kaseya Center on November 24. Herro led the Heat with 24 points, but the Mavericks covered as 7.5-point underdogs.
- The Mavs lost the first two games of their road trip before the victories over the Clippers and Nuggets.
- Dallas trailed Denver, 41-27 at the end of the first quarter before rallying for the 10-point victory. It marked the first time this season the Mavs won consecutive games.
- Head coach Jason Kidd’s club has lost six of the last eight home contests and owns a 4-9 mark at American Airlines Center.
- Heat F Norman Powell is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. Powell leads the team in scoring at 25.0 ppg in his first season with the Heat.
- Dallas is dealing with several injuries as C Dereck Lively II is out with a foot issue and forwards P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford are both listed as questionable.
Miami Heat
- The Heat have gone Over the total in five of the last six road games.
- Miami ranks fifth in the league in 3-point shooting at 38.2%, knocking down 38.3% of its attempts on the road.
- The Heat runs the fastest pace in the NBA at 106.09 after finishing 27th in that category last season.
Dallas Mavericks
- The Mavericks own the lowest offensive rating at 107.0 and are 29th at home at 106.7.
- Dallas is 6-2 to the Under in the last eight games overall, including in each of the past three home contests.
- Shooting from long distance has not been kind to the Mavs, who sit 28th in 3-point conversions at 32.9%.
Heat vs. Mavericks Picks & NBA DFS
Here are three top Heat vs. Mavericks picks to target on Wednesday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by three former top draft picks: Dallas F Cooper Flagg, Miami F Andrew Wiggins, and Mavericks F Anthony Davis.
Mavericks F Cooper Flagg vs. Heat Projection: 17.5 Points
- Flagg is averaging 17.0 ppg in his rookie campaign, but is starting to turn the corner.
- The top pick out of Duke scored a career-high 35 points in Saturday’s win over the Clippers. He followed up that effort with 24 points against Denver on Monday.
- The 18-year old is shooting 25.6% from downtown, including hitting 3-of-20 attempts in his past six games.
- The favorite for Rookie of the Year was held to 12 points on 5-of-14 shooting in the first matchup with Miami on November 24.
- In three of the last five home games, Flagg has been limited to fewer than 16 points.
Heat F Andrew Wiggins vs. Mavericks Projection: 16.5 Points
- Since Thanksgiving, Wiggins torched the Pistons for 31 points, and scored 22 points against the Clippers on Monday.
- In the previous five games, the former Kansas star averaged 13.2 ppg and shot higher than 50% from the floor just once.
- The top selection from the 2014 draft missed the first meeting with Dallas due to a hip injury.
- In his previous matchup against the Mavs as a member of the Warriors last season, he scored 29 points and knocked down 5 treys.
- In nine of the last 12 games, Wiggins has hit at least a pair of 3-pointers. The Mavs rank fourth in defensive 3-point percentage at 32.7%.
Mavericks F Anthony Davis vs. Heat Projection: 34.5 Pts+Rebs
- Davis suited up for the first five games before being sidelined with a calf strain for 14 games.
- The former Kentucky star posted a season-high 32 points and pulled down 13 rebounds in Monday’s win at Denver.
- In five of seven games, he has finished with at least 35 points and rebounds.
- AD has recorded five double-doubles and is averaging 10.2 boards per game.
- In two matchups against Miami last season as a member of the Lakers, the Brow did not reach this projection. His best output was a 22-point, 11-rebound effort in a 117-108 home victory.
Make Picks on NBA on PrizePicks
The Mavericks seek their third consecutive win as they return home to battle the Southeast division-leading Heat.
There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every NBA moment than with PrizePicks.
There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NBA board, so you can build your Lineup however you’d like — with no salary or positional restrictions. Just pick at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks.
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