NFL Week 8 concludes with the Commanders (3-4) heading to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City to clash with the Chiefs (4-3) on Monday Night Football, with the matchup set to kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Commanders are coming into this game having lost three of their last four, and for the third time this season, Washington will be without QB Jayden Daniels, who will miss this game with a hamstring injury. That means QB Marcus Mariota will get his third start of the season.
The Chiefs are back to full form with the return of WR Rashee Rice in Week 7 after serving his six-game suspension, where he went for 2 TDs. After dropping its first two games of the season, Kansas City has won four of its last five and is back in AFC contention.
With the Commanders in a tough road matchup without their starting quarterback, we’ll see if they can make this game competitive vs. one of the NFL's best. We’ll break down our Commanders vs. Chiefs Prediction, Monday Night Football Picks on PrizePicks tonight.
Commanders vs. Chiefs Prediction, MNF Preview
The Washington Commanders are at a huge disadvantage without 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels under center, facing two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. We’ll see if Mariota can lead the Commanders to a win and get the team back to .500, or if Mahomes can keep the Chiefs rolling after a concerning start to the season.
Commanders Preview vs. Chiefs on MNF
- It’s been tough for the Commanders’ offensive talent to stay on the field. Daniels will miss his third game of the season.
- WR Terry McLaurin is set to return after missing four games.
- WR Deebo Samuel missed Week 7 and will play in this game. RB Austin Ekeler suffered a season-ending Achilles injury earlier this year.
- Mariota will make his third start of the season with the Commanders, who are 1-1 in his previous two starts.
- Mariota comes into this matchup losing eight straight road starts; his last win was in September 2019 as the quarterback of the Tennessee Titans.
- The defense has had its share of injuries, including the loss of Dorence Armstrong, who suffered a season-ending knee injury and had led the team with 5.5 sacks.
- The defensive unit is near the bottom in a few categories, including ranking 22nd in points allowed per game (24.3) and 24th in defensive EPA per play (0.058).
- The Commanders have never won a game at Arrowhead Stadium.
Chiefs Preview vs. Commanders on MNF
- The Chiefs had their worst start to a season since 2014, with a 0-2 record. Since then, they are 4-1, but their 4-3 start is their worst since 2021.
- A significant reason for this recent impressive play is Mahomes, who is an MVP frontrunner with over 250 passing yards and averaging 3+ TDs over his last four games.
- He is fourth in the NFL with 1,800 passing yards, fifth with 14 passing TDs, and since Week 3, he leads with a 59.0% passing success rate.
- The Chiefs have dominated this series vs. the Commanders, winning nine of the ten all-time matchups, including all eight games in Kansas City.
Commanders vs. Chiefs Picks for Monday Night Football
Here are the top Commanders vs. Chiefs picks for MNF tonight on the PrizePicks real-money NFL game, including QB Patrick Mahomes and WR Rashee Rice in what could be the Chiefs' fifth win in six games.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Commanders Projection: 276.5 Passing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes has more than 276 passing yards in two of his last three games. Those were against the Raiders (20th) and Jaguars (27th), who are each in the bottom 12 in passing yards allowed per game.
- The Commanders are 26th in passing yards allowed per game (238.3).
- Washington is allowing a 68.4% completion rate over its last three games, which ranks 22nd.
- Mahomes’ 74.5% completion rate since Week 4 is third.
- The Commanders are 16th in QB pressure percentage (20.6%).
- According to PFF, Mahomes has the eighth-most passing yards when facing pressure (444).
- Find more Mahomes stats and a pick for PrizePicks here vs. the Commanders.
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice vs. Commanders Projection: 6 Receptions
- Rashee Rice had 6 receptions on 10 targets in Week 7 against the Raiders in his season debut, playing 41% of his snaps in the slot
- It was his first game of the 2025 season after serving a six-game suspension.
- Rice has more than 6 catches in 9 of 12 games dating back to last season, in which he has at least one target.
- The Commanders have allowed an opposing pass catcher to have 6+ receptions in two of their last four games.
- Washington is allowing the tenth-most receptions to wide receivers this season (80).
- The Commanders are allowing the seventh-most yards per target this season to wide receivers (9.0).
- Rice will likely be covered by Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore, whose 42.0 PFF coverage grade ranks 105th of 110 cornerbacks.
Commanders QB Marcus Mariota Projection: 18.5 Pass Completions
- In Marcus Mariota’s two starts this season, he has recorded 15 and 16 pass completions.
- The Chiefs are ninth in overall completions allowed per game (19.1) and eighth at home (18.3).
- Mariota hasn’t thrown more than 18 completions since Week 10 of the 2022 season, when he was the starter for the Falcons. Since then, he has played seven games with more than 20 pass attempts and less than 19 completions.
- Washington is 26th in pass play percentage (53.8%)
- Kansas City is 11th in opponents' pass play percentage at home (55.9%).
- The Chiefs have the sixth-highest blitz rate (30.6%)
- Among quarterbacks with a minimum of 60 dropbacks when facing a blitz, the former 2015 No. 2 overall pick’s 55.4% completion rate is 28th.
Make Commanders vs. Chiefs Picks Tonight on PrizePicks
The Commanders will try to avoid their third straight loss, but will have to do it without Jayden Daniels for the third time this season. They will have to do it against the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium, where they are 0-8 lifetime.
This Monday Night Football matchup is a perfect spot to make NFL picks on PrizePicks to win real money. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their weekly stat projections, and cash in if your picks are correct.
Check out the Playbook throughout the remainder of the NFL season for more analysis for your PrizePicks and NFL DFS Lineups.
