UPDATE: Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, Skubal is undergoing surgery to "remove loose bodies in his left elbow."
The original story continues below.
Red Sox vs. Tigers is set for first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET on Monday, May 4, with the Tigers returning a 1.4x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.
The Tigers will send ace SP Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.70 ERA) to the mound while the Red Sox deploy SP Payton Tolle (0-1, 3.38 ERA). This is just Tolle’s sixth career start.
Below, we’ll break down our Red Sox vs. Tigers prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB game, including game winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Red Sox vs. Tigers on PrizePicks now.
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Red Sox vs. Tigers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, May 4
The firing of manager Alex Cora hasn't helped the Red Sox climb out of the basement in the American League East. They are 13-21 this season, which is tied for the third-worst record in baseball. Boston's lineup has been the main culprit, scoring the fourth-fewest runs in the majors.
Despite a modest 18-17 record, the Tigers are tied atop the American League Central with the Cleveland Guardians. Their +18 run differential is the second-best mark in the AL, however, and the sixth highest in the majors.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, May 4
The Tigers enter Monday’s game as a home favorite against the Red Sox, returning a 1.4x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Red Sox vs. Tigers game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (1.96x payout)
- Over/Under: 6.5 runs (1.72x payout Over)
- Gamer Winner Payout: Tigers 1.4x | Red Sox 2.77x
Play the Red Sox vs. Tigers winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Prediction on Winner – 5/4/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Red Sox vs. Tigers prediction on the winner for Monday, May 4.
Lock in your Red Sox vs. Tigers prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- The Tigers are only 6-14 on the road but are 12-3 at home.
- Skubal already faced the Red Sox this season, giving up 1 run over 6 innings in a 4-1 victory.
- Boston has hit the third-fewest home runs (23) in the majors. As a team, they only have a .668 OPS.
- The Red Sox have built their lineup around OF Roman Anthony, who only has 1 home run to go along with a .317 wOBA through 29 games.
- Tolle has logged 27 career innings in the majors, giving up 6 home runs and a 1.37 WHIP.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 5/4/26
Here are top Red Sox vs. Tigers picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday, May 4. Today's MLB picks for PrizePicks include SP Tarik Skubal and OF Jarren Duran.
Tigers SP Tarik Skubal vs. Red Sox Projection: 4.5 Hits Allowed
- In his previous start against the Red Sox, Skubal allowed only 4 hits in Boston.
- The Red Sox have the 10th-fewest hits in baseball as a team.
- Skubal has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in every season of his career. Opponents have a career .217 batting average against him, per FanGraphs.
- The star lefty has been even better at home, holding hitters to a career .206 average in Detroit.
Add Tarik Skubal to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Red Sox OF Jarren Duran vs. Tigers Projection: 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Duran is scuffling out of the gate, posting a .252 wOBA and a .124 ISO.
- After recording a 46.8% hard-hit rate on his way to batting .256 last season, he has a 41.0% hard-hit rate and a .186 average this year.
- Left-handed pitchers have limited the outfielder to a .274 wOBA and a .103 ISO for his career. Against righties, he has a .351 wOBA and a .210 ISO.
- Duran has also performed poorly on the road, where he has a career .312 wOBA and a .166 ISO. In Boston, he has a .351 wOBA and a .199 ISO.
Add Jarren Duran to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Red Sox vs. Tigers Picks on PrizePicks
The struggling Red Sox face a tall order on the road when they battle with Skubal and the Tigers on Monday. Already failing to produce offense, Boston could have a difficult time racking up hits against the two-time AL Cy Young winner. Duran, who is already performing poorly, could be in a particularly tough spot.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Red Sox vs. Tigers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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