Game 1 of the second-round Timberwolves vs. Spurs series is set to tip off on Monday, May 4 at 9:30 p.m. ET, with San Antonio entering as 12.5-point favorites on the PrizePicks Team Picks spread.
With Minnesota upsetting the Denver Nuggets in the opening round and San Antonio dispatching the Portland Trail Blazers in five games, the stage is set for what could be a thriller in the Western Conference semifinals.
Below, we'll break down our Timberwolves vs. Spurs prediction and picks for Monday’s NBA Playoff game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Game 1 – Monday, May 4
A year removed from a 49-win campaign and another trip to the Western Conference Finals, the Timberwolves once again went 49-33 in 2025-26. This season saw them slot into the No. 6 seed out West, giving them a first-round matchup against the feisty Denver Nuggets.
Things seemed to be taking a turn for the worse when superstar SG Anthony Edwards went down with a hyperextended knee. Despite that, Minnesota fought through adversity and won the series in six games.
As Edwards’ status continues to be monitored, players like PF Julius Randle, SF Jaden McDaniels, and G Ayo Dosunmu are stepping up. The Wolves face a tall task in taking down a Spurs team that won a whopping 62 games this season.
Led by all-world C Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio has one of basketball’s most lethal defenses while also possessing more than enough talent on offense. Even with Wemby missing some time while in concussion protocol, the Spurs had no trouble against Portland.
The Spurs have a sizable talent advantage until Edwards is back and firing on all cylinders, but the Timberwolves clearly cannot be counted out.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spread, Over/Under for Game 1 – Monday, May 4
The Spurs enter Monday’s game as 12.5-point favorites against the Timberwolves, returning a 1.14x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Timberwolves vs. Spurs game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -12.5 (1.85x payout)
- Over/Under: 217.5 (1.85x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Timberwolves 4.76x | Spurs 1.14x
Play the Timberwolves vs. Spurs spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Timeline
Here is the full Timberwolves vs. Spurs timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.
All-Time: Spurs, 102-48
Regular Season: Timberwolves, 2-1
Playoffs: Spurs, 6-2 in eight games
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Timeline, Schedule for 2026 NBA Playoffs
- Game 1: Monday, May 4, 9:30 p.m. ET in San Antonio
- Game 2: Wednesday, May 6, 9:30 p.m. ET in San Antonio
- Game 3: Friday, May 8, 9:30 p.m. ET in Minnesota
- Game 4: Sunday, May 10, 7:30 p.m. ET in Minnesota
- Games 5-7 if necessary
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction on Spread for Game 1 – 5/4/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Timberwolves vs. Spurs prediction on spread for Monday, May 4.
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- The Spurs are 22-18-1 against the spread as home favorites this year, good for the eighth-best record in the NBA.
- San Antonio’s offense is one of basketball’s very best, sitting third in per-game scoring (119.3 points) and being a top-five unit in shooting percentage (48.2%, fifth) and total rebounds (55.8, fourth).
- On the defensive end, the Spurs limit opponents to the second-fewest points per shot (1.099) in the sport.
- The Timberwolves’ offense isn’t as elite as one would expect. It’s second-to-last in free throw percentage (75.3%) and is 15th in assists per game at 26.1. San Antonio allows the fewest free throw tries per shot attempt and is ninth in assist prevention (25.9 APG).
- According to databallr, the Wolves’ defense performs 4.2 points per 100 possessions worse with Edwards off the court this postseason.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 5/4/26
Here are three top Timberwolves vs. Spurs picks to target for Monday, May 4 on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks include PF Julius Randle, G Stephon Castle, and C Victor Wembanyama.
Timberwolves PF Julius Randle vs. Spurs Projection: 31.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Randle averaged 32.8 combined points, rebounds, and assists during the regular season. Five games into this NBA Playoff run, that number is 30.7.
- Via databallr, Randle’s usage rate climbs by 9.2% in minutes without Edwards this postseason.
- The 12-year veteran has been nearly automatic at the basket, making 70.9% of his tries from 0-3 feet in the regular season and 71.0% against the Nuggets.
- Randle nets 12.4 potential assists per 100 possessions, putting him in the 94th percentile.
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Spurs G Stephon Castle vs. Timberwolves Projection: 30.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- In year No. 2, Castle pieced together 29.4 PRA in 68 regular-season outings. That ledger slightly increased to 29.8 in the first round.
- Last season’s Rookie of the Year improved his 3-point shot, shooting 41.7% after the All-Star break compared to just 28.8% beforehand. He made 40.7% of his attempts against Portland.
- Castle brings down 12.2% of available defensive rebounding opportunities, a 90th-percentile mark.
- According to NBA RAPM, the sophomore combo guard earns 20.3 potential assists per 100 and 29.4 assist points per 100.
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Spurs C Victor Wembanyama vs. Timberwolves Projection: 39 Pts + Rebs
- Wembanyama notched a healthy 36.5 points and rebounds in 64 regular-season outings, then upped it to 36.7 in three fully healthy outings in the first round. That’s still below Monday’s projection, though.
- Scoring efficiency isn’t Wemby’s strong suit, as his +4.3% relative true shooting clip falls in just the 55th percentile.
- After leading the sport with a 33.9% defensive rebounding clip in the regular season, Wembanyama is down to 29.9% in the NBA Playoffs.
- The Alien averages 2.5 contested rebounds in the playoffs, which is outside the top 25 among all players.
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NBA Playoffs Live Picks: Timberwolves vs. Spurs on PrizePicks for Game 1
Here are some angles to target for your Timberwolves vs. Spurs live picks.
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- There’s a direct strength-on-strength stylistic matchup at play here, as the Spurs are first and second in scoring in the first two quarters. The Timberwolves own a top-10 defense in those frames.
- It may be wise to anticipate an uptempo contest. Of all 16 teams to enter the NBA Playoffs, the Wolves’ 99.33 pace is tied for first. The Spurs aren’t too far behind at 97.10 (T-fifth).
- Monday’s matchup presents two of the better defenses when it matters most. Per NBA Advanced Stats, Minnesota and San Antonio are second and third, respectively, in fourth-quarter defensive rating.
- Randle has shed his “playoff dropper” label as a member of the Timberwolves, scoring 21.0 PPG on 48.1% shooting from the field and 36.7% from deep.
- Wembanyama is a better player at home, scoring 2.8 more PPG and shooting 6.6% better from 3-point land than he does in away contests.
Make Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 1 Picks on PrizePicks
Despite being banged up, Minnesota has already showcased its grit and perseverance this postseason. Can the trend continue on Monday, or will San Antonio come out and send a statement with a big-time Game 1 victory?
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