The first round of the NBA Playoffs is complete, leaving us with eight teams fighting to be crowned champion. The Eastern Conference was shaken up in a big way with the No. 2 Boston Celtics going down in seven games, while three of the four top seeds advanced in the West.
Let's sift through the final eight clubs and break down our NBA Finals predictions, including favorites and long shots to win the NBA's annual championship. We'll also weave in payouts for some team outcomes on PrizePicks Team Picks.
With Team Picks, you can get in on who you think will win the NBA championship and earn real money if you're right.
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
2026 NBA Finals Favorites, Long Shots to Win
Here are all the payout multipliers for teams to win the NBA Finals, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
NBA futures payouts are live as of writing and are subject to change.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 1.63x payout
- San Antonio Spurs: 4x
- New York Knicks: 8.33x
- Detroit Pistons: 11.11x
- Cleveland Cavaliers: 14.28x
- Los Angeles Lakers: 16.66x
- Philadelphia 76ers: 22.22x
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 33.33x
Who Will Win the NBA Championship?
Here are some top contenders and a long shot to win the NBA Finals. The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder are a slight favorite to repeat, while the rival San Antonio Spurs are right behind them.
With top-seeded Detroit Pistons needing seven games just to advance past the first round and Boston gone, the No. 3 seed New York Knicks are now the favorite in the East.
San Antonio Spurs
NBA Finals Winner Payout: 4x Yes | 1.21x No
There's no shame in taking the Thunder to win the NBA title. However, one club has beaten them four out of five times this year, and that’s the Spurs.
San Antonio served notice with a 111-109 win in the NBA Cup semifinals in Las Vegas. With star C Victor Wembanyama limited to 20 minutes off the bench while coming back from injury, the Spurs outlasted the Thunder and followed it up with back-to-back wins in late December. The teams split the final two matchups, with both winning at home.
The Spurs' defense, which was third in the regular season in rating, held the Thunder to 109.2 points over the five games — 13.6 points below their season average.
San Antonio also finished the regular season third in scoring average (119.8), sixth in field goal percentage (49.8%), and third in offensive rating (116.6). They have the Defensive Player of the Year in Wembanyama and a team that's proven it can hang with the best, going 8-4 vs. the remaining teams in the West.
Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA Finals Winner Payout: 1.63 Yes | 2.17x No
Speaking of the reigning champs, they finished the regular season with the best overall record at 64-18 after going 68-14 the year prior. That’s with projected MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missing 16 games with injuries.
They started the season 24-1 and have home-court advantage. The stats are eerily similar to what the Thunder recorded in their championship run last year. In 2024-25, the Thunder had the best defensive rating (106.6). That's the case again this year (106.5).
Oklahoma City was top five in offensive rating last year (119.2) and this year (117.6) and led the league in PPG both times (120.5 this season, 119.0 last season).
Gilgeous-Alexander remains a lethal threat, averaging 31.1 PPG in the regular season and leading all playoff scorers at 33.8 PPG thus far.
Bottom line, there wasn’t any drop-off from the championship season and entering the repeat run as the top seed. The Thunder even swept their first-round series in both postseasons.
Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA Finals Winner Payout: 14.28 Yes | 1.02x No
The Cleveland Cavaliers won a tough series vs. an upstart Toronto Raptors team, going the full seven-game distance. Now they get the top-seeded Pistons, who struggled and needed to rally from a 3-1 deficit just to beat the Orlando Magic.
In a wide-open East, the difference between the four remaining teams isn't much. Cleveland had one of the best offenses this season, sitting fourth in scoring (119.5) and sixth in rating (118.3). They have one of the most explosive scorers in the game in SG Donovan Mitchell and added 11-time All-Star PG James Harden at the NBA trade deadline.
With C Jarrett Allen and PF Evan Mobley down low, the Cavs also have a defense that was eighth in opponent field goal percentage (46.4%) and in the top half of the league in both rating and scoring.
If they get by a struggling Pistons team, the Cavaliers could potentially host the Eastern Conference Finals if the Philadelphia 76ers pull off an upset of the New York Knicks.
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Make NBA Finals Predictions on PrizePicks
One round down, three to go. The Thunder and Spurs are the favorites to win the NBA Finals, but they might have to play each other first. Who else could win it all?
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right on PrizePicks. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily NBA predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 NBA Finals.
