First pitch for the San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants game on ESPN is set for 9:45 p.m. ET on Monday, May 4, with the Padres returning a 1.66x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.
Tonight’s game is the fourth of 13 between these two teams this season. Despite the Padres' greater overall success, it was the Giants who won the first series 2-1.
Below, we'll break down our Padres vs. Giants prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Padres vs. Giants on PrizePicks now.
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Padres vs. Giants Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, May 4
It’s been a strong start to the season for the Padres, who are 20-13 and sit just half a game back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the lead in the National League West. They've hit a little bit of a skid recently, going just 4-6 over their last 10 games.
San Diego’s record is all the more impressive considering its offense hasn’t been able to get rolling, sitting just 20th in the majors in wRC+ (96). Their starting pitchers haven’t been particularly impressive either, ranking 20th as a staff in xFIP (4.30).
The bullpen has been leading the charge for San Diego this year, ranking third in xFIP (3.61).
You know things are going badly for your team when you’re looking up at the Colorado Rockies in the standings. That is the position the Giants have found themselves in owning a record of 13-21 that's last in the division.
The starting pitching has been decent for the Giants, ranking 10th with an xFIP of 3.89. The offense has been dreadful, though, ranking dead last in wRC+ (81). Still, the batting order reads as incredibly talented, so perhaps it's just a matter of time before things click.
Padres vs. Giants Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, May 4
The Padres enter Monday’s game as road favorites against the Giants, returning a 1.66x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Padres vs. Giants game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: San Diego Padres -1.5 (2.12x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (1.75x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Padres 1.66x | Giants 2.12x
Play the Padres vs. Giants spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Padres vs. Giants Prediction on Spread – 5/4/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Padres vs. Giants prediction on the spread for Monday, May 4.
Lock in your Padres vs. Giants prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- The Padres were awesome against the spread (ATS) last season and have continued the same success this season. They had a run line record of 90-75 (54.6%) in 2025 and are 19-14 (57.6%) in 2026.
- The Giants' poor ATS record from last year has carried on. In 2025, they had the fifth-worst run line record at 74-88, and that mark is 14-20 thus far.
- San Diego is ranked 20th in wRC+, but with the 23rd-highest BABIP. Some positive regression may be on the horizon.
- San Francisco is currently the worst team in the majors in wRC+, as mentioned, and having the 10th-highest BABIP doesn't necessarily bode well for improvement.
- The Padres also have a sizable advantage in the bullpen. The Giants' only edge (rotation) is temporarily mitigated by starting SP Trevor McDonald, who only has 18 career major league innings pitched.
Padres vs. Giants Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 5/4/26
Here are the top Padres vs. Giants picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday, May 4. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include SPs Randy Vasquez and Trevor McDonald.
Padres P Randy Vasquez vs. Giants Projection: 4 Strikeouts
- Randy Vasquez has been tremendous for the Friars this season, owning a career-high 9.09 K/9.
- He's reached at least this projection in five of six starts this year.
- Vazquez's advanced metrics indicate that his strikeout success may not be a fluke. He has a swinging strike rate of 12.4%, way up from last year’s 6.4% mark.
- The Giants are striking out at a 25% clip over the last seven days, the eighth-most in the league.
Add Randy Vasquez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Giants P Trevor McDonald vs. Padres Projection: 3.5 Strikeouts (Goblin)
- Trevor McDonald is a young but capable pitcher who has a serviceable 8.4 K/9 through 15 innings.
- He's coming off a 10-strikeout outing in his last start against the Rockies, which could elicit some strikeout confidence going forward.
- McDonald's 14.6 SwStr% is incredibly high and in line with some of the best pitchers in baseball.
- The Padres haven't been their typical low-strikeout selves this season, holding a 22.2% K-rate (14th-highest).
Add Trevor McDonald to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Padres vs. Giants Picks on PrizePicks
The nightcap of today’s 12-game MLB slate is a classic California rivalry. Padres vs. Giants is just one of the games for you to get all your action on here with PrizePicks.
Don’t wait until lock — make your Padres vs. Giants picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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