Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Monday, May 4

On Monday, MLB has a 12-game slate with many intriguing matchups on tap. Rays 3B Junior Caminero is one of many hitters who's worth keeping tabs on.

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for all your MLB picks, and many hitters have already been targeted by users as some of the most popular home run picks throughout Monday’s action.

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Monday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick.

Make your MLB home run picks for Monday, May 4, on PrizePicks now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Top Home Run Picks Today – Monday, May 4

Hitting a home run is one of the toughest achievements that a player can achieve. With that in mind, it can be tough to predict which players could go yard on any given day.

Several factors can be attributed to launching a home run. How hard has a player been hitting the ball? Has the opposing starter been surrendering a ton of fly balls? Could weather conditions play a role?

Home run projections are labeled as Demons on PrizePicks, which comes with a higher payout. You can only choose “More” on home run projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here’s a look at the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
2. Phillies OF Kyle Schwarber
3. Yankees OF Aaron Judge
4. Mets OF Juan Soto
5. Rays 3B Junior Caminero
6. Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
7. Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
8. Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
9. Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman
10. Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Rays 3B Junior Caminero

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays – 6:40 p.m. ET

Blue Jays Starting Pitcher: Eric Lauer (5 GS, 1-3, 5.70 xFIP, 36.4% hard-hit, 57.0% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 66 degrees, clear skies, and 9 mph winds toward CF

• Caminero is fresh off a season in which he slugged 45 home runs and has already blasted 9 long balls in 2026.
• The Rays star has blasted 5 of his 9 home runs at home.
• Caminero has registered a 22.5% home run-to-fly ball rate, the second-highest of his four-year career.
• Caminero has tallied an 11.1% barrel rate, ranking in the 71st percentile.
• The Rays power hitter has recorded a career-high 40.4% fly ball rate, topping his personal best of 38.6% in 2024. Lauer has surrendered a career-worst 57.0% fly ball rate.
• Lauer has ceded 7 home runs, which breaks down to a 2.33 HR/9 and a 14.3% HR/FB clip.

Add Junior Caminero to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals – 7:40 p.m. ET

Guardians Starting Pitcher: Tanner Bibee (7 GS, 0-4, 3.98 xFIP, 48.6% hard-hit, 34.0% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 69 degrees, clear skies, and 6 mph winds out to LF

• Witt has hit just 2 home runs, but those both have come over his last seven games.
• The Royals’ SS has blasted one of his long balls and registered a career-best 43.4% fly ball rate vs. right-handed pitchers.
• Witt has produced an 11.0% barrel rate, ranking in the 71st percentile.
• The Royals star has recorded just a 33.9% ground-ball rate, the lowest of his career.
• Witt has also racked up a .298 xBA (92nd percentile), 92.5 mph average exit velocity (87th), and a 49.5% hard-hit rate (84th).
• Bibee's surrendered 5 home runs, which averages out to a 1.27 HR/9 and a career-high 13.9% HR/FB rate.

Add Bobby Witt Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Marlins C Liam Hicks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins – 6:40 p.m. ET

Phillies Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola (6 GS, 1-3, 3.70 xFIP, 41.3% hard-hit, 37.0% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome

• Hicks has blasted 7 home runs, which already tops the 6 homers he hit in 332 at-bats as a rookie in 2025.
• The Marlins’ C has belted all of his home runs against right-handed pitchers this year.
• Hicks has tallied a 21.9% home run-to-fly ball rate, which easily surpasses his 6.4% clip from a season ago.
• The second-year man boasts a 34.8% fly ball rate, while Nola's given up a 37.0% fly ball rate (his highest since 2023).
• The Miami backstop has also registered a .318 xBA (97th percentile), a 38.0% squared-up rate (97th), and a .470 xSLG (78th).
• Nola has served up 6 home runs while also yielding a 1.72 HR/9 and a 17.6% HR/FB rate.

Add Liam Hicks to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

Junior Caminero and Bobby Witt Jr. have pitching matchups that they could take advantage of on Monday, while Liam Hicks aims to keep up his strong start. Who will go yard on Monday?

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.

Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.