Two of the biggest names in men’s tennis are set to face off in the 2026 Australian Open final on Sunday at 3:30 a.m. ET on ESPN.
Carlos Alcaraz has won every other major at least once and will duke it out against Novak Djokovic, who has won more slams (10) in the "Land Down Under" than any man in the event’s history.
Below, we'll preview the championship match and make a PrizePicks ATP Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic prediction for the Australian Open Final.
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Alcaraz vs. Djokovic Prediction, Games Won, Winner Payouts
Alcaraz is off to a strong start in 2026 after finishing 2025 as the ATP’s top-ranked player. He won both the French Open and U.S. Open before ending the season with a loss to Jannik Sinner in the ATP Finals in December. He’s since parted with longtime coach Juan Carlos Ferrero but remains one of the tour’s most talented returners.
"Carlitos" has won a tournament-high 30 break points en route to the final. Only Alexander Zverev can top his mark of 147 first-serve return points this tournament, while only Lorenzo Musetti has amassed more second-serve return points (115). Alcaraz's defensive abilities may be helpful against an opponent who has struggled to win second-serve points against seeded opponents lately.
Djokovic has given up 29 break points against his last two opponents and won 55.0% or less of his second-serve points in both matchups. Alcaraz boasts the ATP’s second-best return rating (165.2) over the last 52 weeks, so Djokovic can’t afford to give the Spaniard easy looks.
The 38-year-old Serbian is considered the best returner of all time and has shown that he still has the stamina to win out in gritty, defensive battles. Alcaraz’s new service motion hasn’t helped him join the tournament’s leaders in aces, as he’s totaling nearly two fewer per match (7.0) than Djokovic in the 2026 Australian Open.
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Games Won, Outright Winner
Alcaraz is favored to win by 2.5 games, returning a 1.29x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if he wins outright.
Djokovic yields a 3.33x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if he wins outright.
- Total Games Won: Alcaraz 21 | Djokovic 18.5
- Game Winner Payout: Alcaraz 1.29x | Djokovic 3.33x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Pick for Australian Open Final
A key PrizePicks projection for the Australian Open men's final ties to top-seeded Alcaraz and how many aces he could produce on Sunday.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Projection: 10.5 Aces
- Alcaraz has eclipsed 10 aces once against Djokovic in nine career meetings.
- Djokovic holds the ATP’s 10th-best return rating (152.8) over the last 52 weeks.
- The world No. 1 averages just .4 aces per game in 2026, per tennisratio.com.
- Djokovic is returning 67.6% of the first serves he’s faced in 2026.
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Make Alcaraz vs. Djokovic Australian Open Picks on PrizePicks
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will battle for the 10th time ever in Sunday’s 2026 Australian Open final.
Djokovic has had more success than anyone in the event’s history but might have a hard time knocking Alcaraz out of the competition for the second year in a row. The two return specialists could be poised to engage in a defensive battle, as both players excel at extending rallies.
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