Chiefs vs. Steelers: Christmas Day Football Picks, Predictions
We’ve got an AFC West vs. AFC North showdown to kickoff the Christmas Day football games on Netflix between the Chiefs and Steelers at 1 p.m. ET. We’ve got NFL Christmas picks and player predictions for NFL DFS and PrizePicks to make your Lineup building easier.
Short rested, the Chiefs and Steelers will face off just four days following their Saturday games, with Playoff seeding on the line. Thankfully for both teams, they are even in terms of the amount of limited rest days they’ve had. The Chiefs, who are rolling right now sit at 14-1, will travel to Pennsylvania to look to defeat the sliding 10-5 Steelers in order to clinch the No. 1 AFC seed.
Below, we’ll highlight some of the best NFL DFS picks for Christmas Day Football and a touchdown scorer pick for the game on PrizePicks.
Don’t forget to head to the PrizePicks NFL board, lock in your picks, and build your Lineup to get in on the real money NFL Christmas action.
Christmas Day Football Picks: Chiefs vs. Steelers
Here are three of the top Chiefs vs. Steelers picks for NFL Christmas Day Football on PrizePicks, plus a game prediction.
- Steelers RB Najee Harris 41.5 Rush Yards — Less
- Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco 41.5 Rush Yards — Less
- TD Scorer Prediction: Steelers WR George Pickens
- Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Steelers 24
👀 Get our free 6-Pick Christmas Day Football Lineup for PrizePicks
Chiefs vs. Steelers Christmas Day Football: How to Watch
Date: Wednesday, December 25, 2024
Time: 1 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Penn.
TV: Netflix (Subscription required)
Steelers RB Najee Harris 41.5 Rush Yards — Less
The tides may finally be turning for who commands the Steelers backfield. Steelers RB Najee Harris has had less snap share percentage in three consecutive weeks to backup RB Jaylen Warren.
It’s the perfect storm for a less here, as Harris' grip as the team’s RB1 may be slipping, and now he’s met with the NFL’s third-best defense in rush yards allowed per game in the Chiefs. Allowing just 91.4 rush yards a game, and Harris not clearing this projection in three of his last five, I don’t see his fortune changing on Christmas Day.
To continue on his slip of being the team’s premiere back, Harris in his last two games had a team snap share percentage of 33% and 28%. Aside from these two, since his freshmen campaign in 2021, Harris only had one single instance of less than a 33% snap share percent, back in Week 12 of 2022. In a game the Steelers could be trailing the AFC’s top team, the snaps may shade more toward Warren, who is the preferred passing downs back.
If the downtrend continues, as Warren continues seeing the field more, I can’t see Harris clearing this rushing projection against one of the league's best defenses — especially now that QB Russell Wilson has his favorite target back from a three week injury stint.
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco 41.5 Rush Yards — Less
When the season started, if Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco ran the ball he ran with bad intentions. His running style resembled someone angry at the ground for existing underneath him. Injured after just two weeks of action, Pacheco was on injured reserve from Week 3 through Week 12. Since his return, he hasn’t looked quite the same.
Against the Chargers, it appeared as though Pacheco regained the backfield from RB Kareem Hunt, only for the last two weeks to tell a different story. In the last two games, Hunt saw two more attempts and played more total snaps. WR Xavier Worthy also saw three rush attempts in back-to-back weeks, further eating into what was previously all Pacheco's backfield.
In the last two weeks, Hunt also had a better yards per carry than Pacheco, posting 3.46 YPC and 5 YPC to Pacheco’s 2.46 YPC and 2.89 YPC. The Texans and the Browns — who rank 10th and 23rd in rush yards allowed per game, are not as stout as the Steelers who rank fourth in the league in rush yards allowed per game.
It’s not totally certain if Pacheco is still trying to get back to health, or if they will decide to give him even less touches so he’ll be more fresh for the playoffs. It’s possible that Hunt has actually shown enough to warrant more touches than his counterpart. All of the possibilities considered, combined with the Steelers allowing just 94.4 rush yards a game, I’ll take Pacheco to go less in what will likely end up being a passing affair as both teams boast great rush defenses.
💰 Use Promo Code "Playbook": Get $50 instantly with your first $5 NFL Lineup
TD Scorer Prediction: Steelers WR George Pickens (Demon)
Steelers WR George Pickens is third in receiving target percentage when in the red zone, at a 55.2% share. The two men above him, Amon-Ra St. Brown at 56.5% and Drake London 66.7% have hauled in eight and six TDs in the red zone to Pickens three. There’s no better time for some positive regression than now.
Inside the 10 yard-line he has garnered 7 targets, yet has come down with zero of them. Another stat screaming for some positive regression.
But it’s not just red-zone opportunities for Pickens — he can score from anywhere. He ranks sixth in average depth of target (13.8 yards) among receivers with 75 targets, and second in yards per reception (15.5).
The Chiefs are stingy on the ground, only giving up 11 TDs on the season compared to their 20 TDs allowed through the air. Steelers QB Russell Wilson loves his guy, as seen by Pickens amassing 90 targets to the next best 59 targets on the team, despite missing three games.
If the Steelers want to score, it will likely need to be through the air, and if it’s through the air, Russ will be glad to have Pickens back from his two-game absence to toss it to.
Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.
Christmas Day Football Prediction: Chiefs 27, Steelers 24
Both squads have plenty to play for on Christmas Day. The Chiefs can clinch the top seed in the AFC with a win, securing a valuable bye in the playoffs. The Steelers, with a win here and a Week 18 win over the Bengals, will win the NFC North and take the #3 seed in the AFC, giving them a home game to open up the playoffs.
The Chiefs, despite being 14-1, have not played like it. Middle of the pack in many metrics have put them into a lot of close late-game situations, yet somehow they always squeak it out. In fact, this season alone, 11 of their 14 wins have been by one possession. I don’t see this one being any different.
Both the Chiefs and the Steelers have impact players waiting to get healthy, and the outcome could be close enough that getting players back, or not, could ultimately be the difference in this game. QB Patrick Mahomes claims his ankle “is in a lot better place”, and a healthy Mahomes makes for a far more dangerous Chiefs. They also felt the impact of WR Marquise Brown returning last week against the Texans.
Wilson and the Steelers will try their best not to drop three in a row, but I don’t see the home field advantage enough to overcome the Chiefs’ ability to win the close ones.
Build Your NFL DFS Lineup on PrizePicks
Whether you’re going big with a Demon pick or staying safe with the Goblins, there’s no better way to add to the excitement of Christmas Day Football and Chiefs vs. Steelers than building your ideal PrizePicks Lineup.
It’s the easiest way to get real money action on Christmas Day Football and get paid for your NFL knowledge.
Just pick more or less on two or more player projections, set your lineup, and lock in for Christmas Day Football on Netflix. Keep coming back to the Playbook for more insights on NFL DFS.
Other resources from PrizePicks:
More Fresh Picks & Insights
