As NFL playoff races continue to heat up, Week 10 brings another loaded slate with many intriguing player matchups to target.
Plenty of players are in favorable spots, and we'll break down 17 individual matchups to consider, including five quarterbacks, four running backs, five receivers, and three touchdown scorers.
The Week 10 cheat sheet is your ultimate resource for the top player picks for PrizePicks NFL, matchups to target, and game insights for the slate.
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NFL Week 10 Cheat Sheet, NFL Picks & Predictions – Sunday, November 15
Below are the top NFL Week 10 predictions, picks, matchups, and players to target in the PrizePicks cheat sheet, including analysis of QBs, RBs, WRs, and TD scorers.
Unless otherwise noted, this article uses data from SumerSports, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and Next Gen Stats.
NFL Week 10 Cheat Sheet: Quarterbacks
49ers QB Brock Purdy vs. Cowboys – 256.5 Pass Yards
Unstoppable force meets movable object. Purdy has been the NFL's most efficient QB, ranking first among qualified passers in EPA per dropback (0.34) and posting a 55% dropback success rate.
Dallas is one of the league's most vulnerable pass defenses, ceding 0.19 EPA per dropback, the 29th-worst mark in the NFL.
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Jets – 235.5 Pass Yards
This is an extreme efficiency mismatch, as Allen is generating 0.305 EPA/dropback while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt. The Jets have struggled to contain opposing passing attacks, allowing 0.195 EPA/dropback, the second-worst mark.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence vs. Titans – 244.5 Pass Yards
Lawrence rounds out the top three, ranking third among qualified QBs in EPA/dropback (0.303). Like Purdy and Allen, he finds himself in an awesome matchup, as Tennessee’s defense is 29th in EPA/pass (0.14).
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott vs. 49ers – 256.5 Pass Yards
Prescott is averaging 264.6 passing yards per contest and gets a nice situational spot at home against a pass-funnel defense. The 49ers’ defense sits second in EPA/rush (-0.18) but 13th in EPA/pass (-0.06).
Rams QB Matthew Stafford vs. Cardinals – 209.5 Pass Yards
I understand the concerns about Stafford missing both WR Puka Nacua and WR Davante Adams, but those absences are baked into this incredibly low projection.
The fact of the matter is that the Rams still have HC Sean McVay, a 24.5-point projected team total, and face an Arizona defense ranked 31st in EPA/pass (0.22).
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NFL Week 10 Cheat Sheet: Running Backs
Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard vs. Saints – 79.5 Rush Yards
Your obligatory RB vs. the Saints take. Hubbard has displayed legit RB1 talent, forcing 28 missed tackles and recording 16 explosive runs. New Orleans has been one of the league's weakest run defenses, ceding 133.9 rushing YPG, the third-highest mark in the NFL.
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey vs. Cowboys – 62.5 Rush Yards
Dallas has been extremely vulnerable against the run, surrendering 147.4 rushing YPG, the most in the sport. McCaffrey has averaged 4.5 YPC and generated 0.13 EPA/rush, ranking third among qualified RBs.
Bills RB James Cook III vs. Jets – 91.5 Rush Yards
Cook plays in arguably the most RB-friendly offensive scheme, running behind an OL that is helping him lead the league with 3.36 yards before contact per carry. The Jets have allowed 128 rushing YPG, 26th in the NFL.
Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten vs. Titans – 67.5 Rush Yards
Tuten has been difficult to bring down this season, forcing 32 missed tackles while averaging 3.6 yards after contact per attempt. Tennessee has allowed opposing offenses to run the ball 24.3 times per game.
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NFL Week 10 Cheat Sheet: Receivers
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Raiders – 89.5 Rec Yards
Smith-Njigba has been spectacular, averaging 115.1 YPG. He's leads all qualified NFL WRs with a commanding 35.7% target share, giving him one of the most reliable workloads. Las Vegas' defense is 30th in the NFL in EPA/pass (0.16).
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Patriots – 81.5 Rec Yards
St. Brown has earned a 32% target share through Detroit's first eight contests. New England has allowed the 24th-highest EPA/dropback.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. 49ers – 90.5 Rec Yards
This is a stand on an elite WR playing in arguably the best game environment on the entire slate. Lamb ranks second among wideouts with a 33.6% target share and a 0.79 weighted opportunity rating (WOPR), both elite marks. He's also averaging 2.91 yards per route run.
Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Bills – 61.5 Rec Yards
Wilson has averaged 65.9 receiving YPG through eight contests. Buffalo's been particularly vulnerable through the air, allowing 0.195 EPA/dropback, the second-worst mark in the NFL.
Patriots TE Hunter Henry vs. Lions – 35.5 Rec Yards
Detroit has been a dream matchup for opposing TEs, ceding a league-high 88 receiving YPG to the position and 8 receptions per contest. Henry has been extremely efficient when targeted, posting an 86.5% catch rate, the highest among non-RBs with at least 30 targets.
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NFL Week 10 Cheat Sheet: TD Scorers
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Patriots – 0.5 Anytime TDs (Goblin)
Gibbs has one of the best red-zone roles in the NFL, recording 53 opportunities and converting them into 10 TDs. That workload includes 44 red-zone carries, giving him plenty of chances to finish drives himself against a New England defense that's allowed TDs on 55% of opponent red-zone trips.
Bills RB James Cook III vs. Jets – 0.5 Anytime TDs (Goblin)
Cook has recorded 35 red-zone opportunities and has also received 17 carries inside the 10-yard line, showing that Buffalo trusts him with high-value opportunities near the goal line. The Jets have allowed TDs on 69% of opponent red-zone trips.
Cowboys RB Javonte Williams vs. 49ers – 0.5 Anytime TDs (Goblin)
Williams has been Dallas' unquestioned goal-line back, handling all 17 of the Cowboys' designed carries inside the 5-yard line and converting nine into rushing TDs. He's already recorded 43 red-zone touches through nine games.
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Make NFL Week 10 Predictions on PrizePicks
From Brock Purdy's passing upside to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Amon-Ra St. Brown perhaps standing out with heavy workloads, there may be plenty of big-time performances this weekend.
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