Vikings vs. Packers Prediction, Spread, Week 10 NFL Picks – Sunday, November 15

In Week 10, the Minnesota Vikings (6-2) will face the Green Bay Packers (6-3) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 15. The Packers enter as 2.5-point home favorites, returning a 1.61x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

Following a disastrous performance by QB Carson Wentz and the Vikings’ offense in a 23-6 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, Minnesota finally did what many expected and acquired QB Kirk Cousins at the trade deadline.

With the defense continuing to play at an elite level, even league-average play out of a Cousins-led offense could go a long way toward making the Vikings legit contenders.  

Meanwhile, the Packers are coming off a statement win in Week 9, crushing the New England Patriots on the road by a final of 45-27.

Below, we’ll break down our Vikings vs. Packers prediction and picks for NFL Week 10, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Vikings vs. Packers prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Vikings vs. Packers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – NFL Week 10

The Packers enter Sunday’s game as 2.5-point favorites against the Vikings, returning a 1.61x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $161 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Vikings vs. Packers game on PrizePicks. 

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Vikings vs. Packers prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

It remains to be seen how much a 38-year-old Kirk Cousins will be able to lift this Vikings offense, but Monday’s demoralizing loss to the Bills made it clear that continuing the season without making a change at QB likely wouldn’t end well.

With Kyler Murray out with a hamstring injury, Wentz got the start against Buffalo, and things couldn’t have gone much worse. Wentz looked uncomfortable from the start and would go on to complete just 8 of 25 passes for 81 yards and 2 INTs.

The team amassed 178 total yards on offense and scored a mere 6 points off a pair of field goals. Cousins will now be tasked with fixing an attack that’s 27th in PPG (18.3) and 31st in YPG (266.8). 

In addition to Cousins being familiar with head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense from his previous tenure with the Vikings, the QB performed well in nine starts for the Las Vegas Raiders before the trade.

He enters this matchup with the league’s second-most passing TDs (20) and ranks sixth out of 31 qualified QBs in adjusted EPA/play (0.226), per RBSDM. In comparison, Murray ranks 26th in adjusted EPA/play (-0.011), and Wentz would easily rank last if he qualified (-0.220). 

Cousins figures to rekindle his connection with WR Justin Jefferson on Sunday, but he’ll be without a couple of key pass-catchers in TE T.J. Hockenson and WR Jauan Jennings. WR Jordan Addison is listed as questionable.

Of course, the strength of this team remains its elite defense, which is first in PPG (14.5) and second in YPG (280.0). The unit is also tied for the league lead in sacks (29), which is backed by owning the highest pressure rate (45.6%), per Sharp Football Analysis. 

They might have their work cut out for them to stymie a Packers offense that just piled up 45 points and 478 yards of total offense on the Patriots last week.

QB Jordan Love was on an absolute heater, completing 23 of 29 passes for 372 yards and 3 TDs, and even the normally lethargic run game produced 129 rushing yards and 2 TDs.

WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden ran circles around the Pats’ secondary, with top CB Christian Gonzalez suffering the brunt of the damage.

Green Bay is now up to 12th in both PPG (24.0) and YPG (347.9). Its backfield remains a major question mark, particularly with RB Josh Jacobs out multiple weeks following finger surgery, but this passing attack could continue to be a handful.

The Packers also sport a solid defense, sitting just outside the top 10 in PPG (21.2) and YPG (322.9). They might be even better than those numbers would suggest, as they’re up at fifth in defensive DVOA, per FTN. This may not be the easiest matchup for Cousins in his 2026 Vikings debut. 

Vikings vs. Packers Prediction on Spread – 11/15/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Vikings vs. Packers pick against the spread for Sunday, November 15.

• Cousins should theoretically be a much-needed upgrade for Minnesota. However, he has a short week to get up to speed for this matchup, which could limit his effectiveness against a defense that’s 10th in EPA/play (-0.050) and seventh in dropback EPA/play (-0.025).  
• While Green Bay might not have as good a pass rush as Minnesota’s, it still does a good job of getting to the QB. The Packers’ D is tied for the fifth-most sacks per game (2.9) and is just outside the top 10 in pressure rate (36.9%).  
• Green Bay’s offense got off to a slow start, but since Week 5, it's third in EPA/play (0.128) while averaging 28.6 PPG over that span.
• Minnesota’s offense is 31st in EPA/play (-0.156), 30th in success rate (36.9%), and 30th in DVOA.
• The Packers are 6-0 against the spread over their last six games.

Make your Vikings vs. Packers picks on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NFL game.

Vikings vs. Packers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/15/26

Here are the top Vikings vs. Packers picks to target on Sunday, November 15. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Justin Jefferson and Jordan Love.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Packers: 6.5 Recs

• Per PlayerProfiler, Jefferson ranks inside the top 10 in target share (28.9%), designed target share (33.3%), and first read target share (37.6%) this season. 
• In Cousins’ starts with the Vikings from 2020-23, Jefferson averaged 9.6 targets per game, per RosterWatch. That'd be a sizable jump from the 7.3 mark he's averaged so far in 2026.
• Jefferson could see a bump in targets with both Hockenson and Jennings ruled out. That would be even more the case if Addison can’t go.
• The star wideout has his best game of the season in Week 1 against Green Bay. He caught 8 of 9 targets for 92 yards and 2 TDs.

Add Justin Jefferson + Vikings to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Packers QB Jordan Love vs. Vikings: 21.5 Pass Completions

• The Packers rank second in pass rate over expected (+6.0) and passing play percentage (63.9%).
• As a result, Love is averaging 37.9 pass attempts. He has thrown 41+ passes in three of the last four games.
• Due to that high volume, Love is also averaging 23.9 pass completions. He’s completed 22+ passes in seven of nine games.
• Part of the reason the Packers throw so much is because of their poor rushing attack. The team is last in rushing YPG (68.2) and second to last in rushing YPC (3.0).
• Although Love completed just 21 passes in Week 1 against the Vikings, he attempted 42 passes.

Add Jordan Love + Packers to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Vikings vs. Packers Picks on PrizePicks

This is a critical game for the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers in a stacked division. Which NFC North team will get the victory?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Vikings vs. Packers picks on PrizePicks now for Week 10.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on NFL game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily NFL news, picks, analysis, and more all the way through Super Bowl LXI.