Patriots vs. Lions Prediction, Spread, Picks for Munich Game – NFL Week 10

In Week 10, the New England Patriots (5-4) will face the Detroit Lions (6-2) at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, November 15. The game will take place at FC Bayern Munich Stadium in Munich, Germany, and air on FOX.

The Lions enter as 2.5-point favorites, returning a 1.63x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

The Patriots are coming off a rough 45-27 loss to the Green Bay Packers, whereas the Lions find themselves on a four-game win streak following a 19-9 victory over the Miami Dolphins.

New England has now dropped two of its last three games, and both losses have come against NFC North opponents. Can the Lions keep that trend going, or will the Pats find a way to bounce back across the pond?

Below, we’ll break down our Patriots vs. Lions prediction and picks for NFL Week 10, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Patriots vs. Lions prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Patriots vs. Lions Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Munich Game – Sunday, November 15

The Lions enter Sunday’s game as 2.5-point favorites against the Patriots, returning a 1.63x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $163 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Patriots vs. Lions game on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Patriots vs. Lions prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

In the Patriots’ Week 9 loss to the Packers, just about everything went wrong from start to finish, beginning with QB Drake Maye throwing an INT on their second offensive play. The Pats would go on to turn the ball over 4 times, including 3 INTs from their signal-caller.

Between those turnovers repeatedly giving Green Bay’s offense good field position and New England’s defense getting shredded over and over by chunk plays, QB Jordan Love and company would go on to rack up 478 total yards en route to 45 points.

While Maye would also throw for 299 passing yards and 3 TDs in comeback mode, his turnover woes were reminiscent of his early-season struggles. He’s now tied for the league’s most INTs (11) alongside Chargers QB Justin Herbert.

For the season, the Patriots are 14th in PPG (23.4) and eighth in YPG (369.4). This is still a capable offense when Maye avoids too many mistakes.

In somewhat of a surprise, both WR A.J. Brown and RB Rhamondre Stevenson are both listed as questionable, so Maye could also have some key weapons available to him, too.

The defense’s poor performance against the Packers could be of greater concern. Specifically, Green Bay made it a point to actively attack top CB Christian Gonzalez with WR Matthew Golden and WR Christian Watson.

Gonzalez was beaten repeatedly, leading PFF to give him the lowest coverage grade in Week 9. 

New England’s defense is league average in PPG (23.0), but it's starting to look like a pass-funnel unit, sitting 25th in passing YPG (231.9) compared to ninth in rushing YPG (96.7).

The Patriots will hope for improved play from Gonzalez with a dangerous Lions offense on tap, particularly with fellow starting CB Carlton Davis III ruled out.

Despite winning four in a row, Detroit actually hasn’t scored over 20 points in three straight, though two of those games have come against the Green Bay and the Minnesota Vikings — a pair of divisional opponents with strong defenses. 

Last week’s 19-point output vs. the lowly Dolphins was a bit more surprising, though, as the team managed only 270 total yards on offense as a 6.5-point road favorite.

Despite those muted outputs, this is still an attack that’s fifth in PPG (27.8) and fourth in YPG (379.8) with a dangerous trio in QB Jared Goff, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. New England’s defense could be in for a long afternoon if it plays as it did in Week 9.

The Lions’ D has been a weakness for much of the season, sitting 17th in PPG (23.6) and 26th in YPG (355.0). However, over the four-game win streak, it's allowed 21, 17, 15, and 9 points.

That includes holding the Packers to 17 points, which is in stark contrast to the beatdown the Pats just suffered. 

Patriots vs. Lions Prediction on Spread for NFL Week 10 – 11/15/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Patriots vs. Lions prediction on the spread for Sunday, November 15.

• Despite his turnover woes, Maye ranks fifth in adjusted EPA/play (.232), which is just ahead of Goff (.230), per RBSDM. 
• While the Lions’ defense has gotten better results of late, the unit is still 31st in EPA/play allowed (0.087) and 26th in dropback/EPA allowed (0.177).
• New England’s four losses have come against teams that had defenses that were top-10 in both EPA/play and dropback EPA/play. Four of its five wins were against defenses that were in the bottom half in both. 
• Per FTN, New England slots in at 14th in total DVOA, while Detroit is 17th. This is due in part to the Lions being just 25th on defense.
• According to Sharp Football Analysis, Detroit has played the third-easiest schedule, while New England has played the fifth-hardest.
• The Patriots could have a tougher time defending the pass, but they might be able to slow down Gibbs a bit in the run game. The defense is 10th in EPA/play allowed (-0.123) and 11th in rush success rate (36.9%).  

Make your Patriots vs. Lions picks on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NFL game.

Patriots vs. Lions Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/15/26

Here are the top Patriots vs. Lions picks to target on Sunday, November 15. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Hunter Henry and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Patriots TE Hunter Henry vs. Lions: 35.5 Rec Yards

• Per PlayerProfiler, Henry logged only half the snaps last week, but he was listed as questionable and played through a foot injury. Now that he no longer has an injury designation, he could go back to a meatier role.
• Prior to getting injured in Week 8, Henry had a 75% snap share or better in the previous two games.  
• Henry is averaging 40.1 receiving YPG. Excluding his last two games affected by injury, he’s reached 40+ yards in five of his seven outings.
• Detroit struggles to defend TEs, ceding the most targets (10.8), receptions (8.0), and receiving yards (88.0) per game to the position. The Lions have also permitted the most TDs (11) to TEs.
• This matchup has a 50.5-point total, which is one of the highest on the slate. A shootout would increase the prospects of Maye throwing more often. Patriots games have hit the over 66.7% of the time, while Lions games have gone over 62.5% of the time.

Add Hunter Henry + Patriots to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Patriots: 79.5 Rec Yards

• St. Brown is averaging 82.1 receiving YPG and has logged 86+ in two of the last three games. According to JJ Zachariason, he saw a season-high 40% target share vs. the Dolphins last week.
• The star wideout has seen double-digit targets in six of his eight games this season.
• St. Brown ranks fifth in all of target share (32.0%), target rate (32.3%), and route participation rate (89.0%). He’s also third in designed target share (43.5%) and first-read target share (39.7%).
• The Patriots allow the fourth-most receiving YPG (175.2) to opposing WRs and have coughed up the most TDs (12) to WRs. New England’s secondary could be vulnerable with Gonzalez struggling and Davis sidelined.

Add Amon-Ra St. Brown + Lions to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Patriots vs. Lions Picks for Munich Game on PrizePicks

The New England Patriots are trying to rebound from a demoralizing loss, while the Detroit Lions are seeking their fifth straight win. Which team will get the victory in Germany?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Patriots vs. Lions picks on PrizePicks now for Week 10.

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