UFC White House Predictions for Topuria vs. Gaethje & All Freedom 250 Fights

One of the biggest UFC cards ever is set for this Sunday night on the South Lawn of the White House — yes, that White House — in Washington, D.C., as UFC Freedom 250 brings a stacked main card headlined by Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje for the lightweight title.

The UFC White House main card features seven ranked fights, with Ilia Topuria entering as a major favorite over Gaethje, according to projections. In the co-main event, former light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira meets Ciryl Gane in an interim heavyweight title fight, while current champion Tom Aspinall recovers from an eye injury.

The UFC Freedom 250 main card starts on Sunday night at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC White House predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Topuria vs. Gaethje and the rest of the main card.

To celebrate Sunday’s UFC White House event, PrizePicks has discounted “Suga” Sean O’Malley’s significant strikes projection to 28.5. Tap here and go to the UFC board to claim the O’Malley discount.

Make your UFC White House predictions on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right on every fight at UFC Freedom 250 tonight!

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UFC White House Predictions & Fight Card for Topuria vs. Gaethje

Before we get into our UFC White House predictions for Sunday night, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

This is the full UFC Freedom 250 fight card for Sunday night, which is expected to start at 8 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Weather could affect the event’s start time — so keep that in mind.

• Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje – Lightweight Championship
• Co-Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Cyril Gane – Interim Heavyweight Championship
• Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi – Bantamweight
• Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis – Heavyweight
• Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler – Lightweight
• Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus – Middleweight
• Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia – Featherweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Freedom 250 main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks — a prediction market available in 35 states. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 35 states, including Florida, California, and Texas!

Make your UFC White House predictions on PrizePicks & earn money if you’re right

Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje Prediction for UFC White House Main Event

Fight Winner Payouts: Ilia Topuria 1.19x | Justin Gaethje 4.34x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Topuria vs. Gaethje UFC Model Results:

Choosing a main event for such a historic event had to be a brutal decision for UFC, but currently, Ilia “El Matador” Topuria is universally the most respected fighter on the roster when combining skill, entertainment value, personality, and fighting style.

The undefeated Spaniard is 9-0 in UFC with what seems to be no discernible holes in his game. Many believe his boxing, as evidenced by a +0.98 striking success rate (SSR), is perhaps the best MMA has ever seen.

This is from a fighter who fundamentally entered the UFC as a grappler. He still averages 1.96 takedowns and 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes despite three straight knockouts — with each coming progressively more violent than the last:

Topuria’s current three-fight knockout streak has come against three former champions who are 4-1 since losing to Topuria. Ilia has dismantled the best of the best in their prime, which is how he’s such a huge favorite over a fighter as credentialed as Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje.

Gaethje is an all-action brawler who, curiously, comes from a college wrestling background at Northern Colorado. Gaethje opts for fisticuffs instead, though. 

Gaethje’s historical land rate — 6.48 significant strikes per minute — is massive, and it’s not at the expense of efficiency (58%). He’s just occasionally gotten a little sloppy on the defensive side:

Counting Gaethje out of this matchup would be foolish. His kill-or-be-killed style is as good a formula and fight strategy as could exist to pull a monumental upset like the one he’ll be tasked with at The White House on Sunday. 

However, Topuria’s efficiency, skill, and youth – at 29 years old to Gaethje’s 37 – are huge advantages in his direction.

Predict the Topuria vs. Gaethje Winner at UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

Topuria vs. Gaethje Pick for UFC White House Fights

Justin Gaethje – 36.5 Significant Strikes

Justin Gaethje’s significant strikes projection is a wildly fascinating projection in full context, especially given this fight is slated for five five-minute rounds.

In every fight, the American seems to impose some sort of force. Gaethje’s crested 102 significant strikes in every career fight that has started Round 3 except one. That bout with Rafael Fiziev featured a rare dosage of control time (1:32) for “The Highlight”.

Therefore, length is the major differentiating factor in this projection. If it’s there, Gaethje can dominantly surpass this mark. 

He’s only been finished once in the first round during 15 career starts — by a Charles Oliveira submission. Quietly, Topuria’s average fight length in his career is 9:22.

Unnervingly, Topuria’s knockout binge and submission danger — rivaling that of Oliveira — could bring his forecast of a first-round stoppage to fruition. Without it, Gaethje’s historical output suggests he could pile up strikes in a hurry.

Make Your Topuria vs. Gaethje Pick for UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

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Alex Pereira vs. Cyril Gane Prediction for UFC White House

Fight Winner Payouts: Alex Pereira 1.81x | Cyril Gane 1.88x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)

Pereira vs. Gane UFC Model Results:

As current heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall is still out of service due to an eye injury, the UFC’s heavyweight division will keep moving with two worthy challengers.

At 38, UFC legend Alex “Poatan” Pereira is done with cutting weight. As someone who has made 185 pounds in his tenure, he’ll move up to heavyweight for a chance to become the first fighter to ever win a title in three different weight classes.

As a substantial underdog, Pereira turned back the clock in his final appearance at 205 pounds. He didn’t just settle the score with Magomed Ankalaev; Poatan ended the conversation in emphatic fashion:

Moving up to the promotion’s largest division to battle Ciryl Gane will be no light task, though. “Bon Gamin” is looking to claim his second interim title and set up a rematch with Aspinall, whose eye was injured at the Frenchman’s hands.

That controversy aside, Gane’s +2.96 SSR might show his prowess on a spreadsheet, but it likely undersells fluidity and movement like perhaps we’ve never seen from a big guy. 

For what he lacks in knockout power, Gane possesses surgical accuracy and the ability to pitch shutouts defensively as he did against Sergei Spivac.

When given a chance at undisputed gold, Gane’s grappling (47% takedown D) failed him. Pereira’s background in kickboxing probably means he’s not putting on wrestling shoes entering his late 30s, so this sets up as a technical striking match where the best man prevails.

Predict the Pereira vs. Gane Winner at UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

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Pereira vs. Gane Pick for UFC White House Fight

Alex Pereira – 0.5 Knockdowns

“Power” is such a powerful word in this particular matchup — pun intended.

Gane’s tradeoff for remarkable skill is that his 0.33% knockdown rate (KD%) just isn’t very high. His last knockdown came in 2022 against Tai Tuivasa, who is currently on a seven-fight losing skid.

Pereira (1.02 KD%) seemingly has a power advantage on paper, but moving to heavyweight changes his outlook dramatically. Without weight cuts, these big guys are typically at maximum durability, and larger opponents typically can absorb punches. 

In fact, it’s Pereira’s own historical issues with durability that could be a concern if he’s simply just too small for this new weight class:

I get asked how my UFC model accounts for weight shifts, and it doesn’t. There’s no substantial, historical correlation. Some guys’ durability benefits from moving divisions. Some worsen. Some guys’ output gets better. Some land fewer strikes. Some win more. Some lose more.

With that, the model’s read of a full fight 46.9% of the time is a peculiar verdict.

Make Your Pereira vs. Gane Pick for UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

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Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi Prediction for UFC White House

Fight Winner Payouts: Sean O’Malley 1.21x | Aiemann Zahabi 3.84x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

O’Malley vs. Zahabi Model Results:

Without a doubt, the brightest American star in UFC, regardless of resume, is former UFC bantamweight champion “Suga” Sean O’Malley. Leaving him off this card would have been a tough scene for American fans.

O’Malley is looking to build himself back into title contention after two consecutive losses to Merab Dvalishvili, and a decision win over Song Yadong was a good start. If he gets another over Canada’s Aiemann Zahabi, his previous win over current champion Petr Yan could loom large:

The choice of Zahabi as Suga’s opponent is likely intentional to give the fans a show. 

These two combine for just 0.36 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, so this one should be a war on the feet. “Icemann” has won seven in a row after squeaking by Jose Aldo and Marlon “Chito” Vera in his last two fights:

Striking comes in different forms, and this is definitely an offensive approach (O’Malley) opposite a defensive one. O’Malley lands 6.05 significant strikes per minute with elite accuracy (60%), and Zahabi’s 69% striking defense is the best mark inside the rankings.

Defense doesn’t score, though. That’s probably why O’Malley is a fairly substantial favorite in a fight that, if UFC could choose, the promotion would want him to win. However, Zahabi is a junkyard dog that’s been historically tough to count out. It’ll be fascinating to see how the Canadian’s game translates to this upper tier of competition.

Predict the O’Malley vs. Zahabi Winner at UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

O’Malley vs. Zahabi Pick for UFC White House Fights

Sean O’Malley – 28.5 Significant Strikes (Discount Promo)

PrizePicks helped us out with a Discount on “Suga” Sean’s significant strikes projection, which is 65.5 as its main projection. 

We have seen some absolutely dominant, box-score-stuffing performances from Suga. He’s met or eclipsed 230 significant strikes in two of his last fights, which were dominant striking displays coinciding with tough opponents.

Claim the Suga Sean Max Discount promo — 28.5 sig strikes — on PrizePicks NOW!

The original projection is well under 230 here for good reason, though. Zahabi’s elite striking defense also meets the Canadian’s sluggish pace (9.66 significant strikes attempted per minute) by this division’s standards.

O’Malley encountered a similar problem against Song Yadong in January and totaled just 48 significant strikes in a full-length decision. However, Yadong was also an established top contender. 

If Zahabi’s defensive metrics regress facing a tougher opponent, things could spiral quickly.

The American’s last knockout came in 2023. Does that trend change on a historical night filled with adrenaline? That’s another question to answer that’s extremely relevant to counting totals. 

My model gives O’Malley a 23.3% chances of finding a (T)KO vs. Zahabi, as noted above.

Make Your O’Malley vs. Zahabi Pick for UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

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Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction for UFC White House

Fight Winner Payouts: Josh Hokit 1.23x | Derrick Lewis 3.70x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)

Hokit vs. Lewis UFC Model Results:

Michael Chandler’s UFC career hasn’t gone quite to plan, but a lot of mistakes can be forgotten with an All-American upset of Brazil’s Mauricio Ruffy on Sunday night.

Chandler’s precipitous fall from a failed 2021 title shot — losing five of his last six fights, has been tough to watch at times. Competition like Charles Oliveira, Paddy Pimblett, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje makes most of them forgivable, though.

Believe it or not, this is the former Bellator champion’s first fight outside of the top eight in the rankings in his UFC career. The No. 9 contender, Ruffy, isn’t exactly a cupcake, though.

The Brazilian enters at an interesting crossroads. His hype train completely fell off the tracks in a second-round submission loss to Benoit Saint Denis, but a piston-like right hand capped a dominant effort against Rafael Fiziev in January.

Fiziev’s lack of wrestling danger really left him helpless against a striker as quick, refined, and versatile as Ruffy. The Brazilian’s open stance resembles Conor McGregor's with similar combinations.

Can Chandler use the experience of training two full camps for McGregor twice to his advantage, or is the 40-year-old a sitting duck at distance for the former “Fighting Nerds” product?

Predict the Ruffy vs. Chandler Winner at UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

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Ruffy vs. Chandler Pick for UFC White House Fight

Mauricio Ruffy – 7 Minutes Fight Time

If there’s one thing Chandler has proven, it’s that he’s not an easy out.

“Iron” Mike has two stoppages inside two minutes as his UFC wins. In the losses, only in the first fight with Oliveira did he not realize a seventh minute. 

Chandler’s in-fight performance has actually been fairly competitive against Gaethje (-13 striking differential), Poirier (+5), and a second bout with “Do Bronx” (-4).

Nearing 40, it’s his last result against Pimblett (-69) that has many starting the spin cycle on the veteran toward “washed” status. Ruffy has proven to be a quick, lethal striker, too. No one had knocked out Fiziev prior to his last start.

Representing his country, does the underdog, Chandler, bite back one more time, or will it be a perfect venue to retire after an immediate, lopsided stoppage loss?

Make Your Ruffy vs. Chandler Pick for UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus Prediction for UFC White House

Fight Winner Payouts: Bo Nickal 1.28x | Kyle Daukaus 3.44x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Nickal vs. Daukaus UFC Model Results:

Brazil has jiu-jitsu. Thailand has Muay Thai. Russia has Sambo. America’s most common martial art is freestyle wrestling, and an all-timer in that department makes an appearance on this card, too.

Bo Nickal’s 120-3 collegiate record at Penn State made him a scorching prospect in whatever he decided to do after school, and the middleweight chose MMA. 

After multiple wins on Dana White’s Contender Series, Nickal’s UFC start, even against poor competition, has been nearly perfect. He’s 5-1 with the promotion with a quality +1.28 SSR, and, to zero surprise, no one has taken him down inside the octagon.

However, Nickal is only 30 and developing, and the rankings proved to be too much too soon. Dutch veteran Reiner de Ridder said, “not today, young buck.”

Sunday’s fight won’t happen inside the rankings, but another litmus test of striking improvement will come in the form of Philadelphia’s Kyle Daukaus. 

Once cut from the UFC and having returned last year, the grinder’s story can resonate with many. “The D’Arce Knight” has shown his grappling skills with a 12-0 pro record by submission, but he’s been on a power binge at distance with knockdowns in both fights since returning.

This is a phenomenal test for Nickal. 

Daukaus’ 82% takedown defense has thwarted ranked contenders like Brendan Allen and Roman Dolidze. At distance, the underdog’s power and submission danger can’t be taken lightly. 

Predict the Nickal vs. Daukaus Winner at UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

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Nickal vs. Daukaus Pick for UFC White House Fights

Kyle Daukaus – 20.5 Significant Strikes

Kyle Daukaus’ striking improvements will be put to a stress test in a fight where he – almost assuredly – won’t be able to floor Nickal on his own terms.

The problem is that he hasn’t been outside the first minute against aging, fragile veterans like Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert. Will his volume hold up? Does that aggressive style bite him against better competition?

All in all, Daukaus will likely need his hands at some point to score an upset in this fight, yet his striking defense (42%) remains perilously low.

This striking projection is quite low in fear that Daukaus ends up on his back for the majority of the fight, but only one opponent has taken the Philadelphian down multiple times in eight tries.

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Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia Prediction for UFC White House

Fight Winner Payouts: Diego Lopes 1.61x | Steve Garcia 2.22x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)

An all-action featherweight banger will be quite the introduction to UFC for those tuning in for the first time because of the historic nature of the card.

Brazil’s Diego Lopes was seemingly built in a lab to be an exciting fighter. Lopes wings power punches at the cost of efficiency (-0.73 SSR). 

He’ll constantly grab limbs left exposed, per 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes. His 6-3 UFC record is a testament to how far tremendous durability and an offensive mindset can take someone in a sport where aggressive wins.

Coming off a second failed title opportunity vs. Alexander Volkanovski, Lopes will drop down the rankings and attempt to end Steve “Mean Machine” Garcia’s seven-fight winning streak.

This coincides with when he dropped from lightweight to featherweight to fight smaller competition.

The American boxer is perhaps the sport's most potent power threat at present. His 2.60% knockdown rate is the highest among all non-heavyweight fighters with at least 10 appearances. Garcia’s ability to snowball has left foes dazed and confused within five minutes regularly.

Testing Lopes’ notorious chin with Garcia’s power is diabolical matchmaking. Plus, Lopes’ elite jiu-jitsu and power will test Garcia’s viability, given the underdog’s early-career struggles. He was dropped four times in his first three fights before this lightning-in-a-bottle run.

Predict the Lopes vs. Garcia Winner at UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

Lopes vs. Garcia Pick for UFC White House Fights

Diego Lopes —8.25 Minutes Fight Time

Lopes and Garcia were given this assignment for a reason. 

Entertainment value should exist throughout this fight, even if its exact duration is somewhat ambiguous, per the model’s 39.1% chance that it goes the full distance.

Building up the action in this fight was necessary, but quietly, these two have shown a recent trend of offensive-first mindsets that did not exactly end in violence. Lopes, especially, has just one knockdown and one win by stoppage in his last five fights, and there is a bit of luck in this timing.

Simultaneously, Garcia showed a more measured approach two fights ago in a decision win over Calvin Kattar. 

Where’s the line between caution and aggression in this one? A projection right around the fight’s midpoint doesn’t tell us much. The answer to that question might come from who you think wins — and how.

Make Your Lopes vs. Garcia Pick for UFC Freedom 250 on PrizePicks

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC White House: How it Works

I've created a predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

Each eligible UFC White House main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks tonight. The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

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Make UFC White House Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Freedom 250 goes down this Sunday night, as a historic event on the South Lawn of the White House that you won’t want to miss. With a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks, there has never been another event like this in UFC’s history.

Lock in your UFC predictions for tonight's main card, which starts at 8 p.m. ET — pending weather.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Freedom 250, headlined by Topuria vs. Gaethje, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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