Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi Prediction, Pick for UFC White House

Sunday night will make history in the world of sports. For the first time ever, The White House will play host to a major sporting event at UFC Freedom 250.

In the main event, the lightweight title will be decided between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje. Heavyweights Alex Pereira and Cyril Gane will decide their division’s interim title in the co-main. However, some might have a featured bantamweight bout between Sean O’Malley and Aiemann Zahabi circled as their top point of intrigue.

“Suga” is one of America’s most popular MMA fighters. The former bantamweight champion — well-known for his colorful hair and eccentric style — is looking to stamp his case for the next title opportunity against Petr Yan, a man whom he’s bested once in the octagon before. To make that statement, he’ll have to go through Canadian grinder Aiemann Zahabi.

To celebrate Sunday’s event, PrizePicks has discounted “Suga” Sean O’Malley’s significant strikes projection to 28.5! Click here for more details about O’Malley’s discount.

This featured bout of UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje is expected to start around 10:00 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

Make your UFC Freedom 250 picks on winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks!

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi Prediction, Preview for UFC White House

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. 

Sean O’Malley: 1.21x ($100 pays $121)

• By KO/TKO: 2.5x
• By Submission: 16.66x
• By Decision: 2.04x

Aiemann Zahabi: 4x ($100 pays $400)

• By KO/TKO: 11.11x
• By Submission: 22.22x
• By Decision: 5.88x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

Each episode of “The Suga Show” would be highly rated on Rotten Tomatoes, and Sunday’s third-to-last bout on the card will likely be no exception.

American striker Sean O’Malley has claimed gold in this same 135-pound division earlier this decade, and he made a boatload of fans along the way. Ever since a knockout win on Dana White’s Contender Series, the brash, colorful specialist in “vibes” has been on fans’ radar. Of course, he became a legend with an emphatic title win over Aljamain Sterling:

O’Malley was turned aside twice by grappler Merab Dvalishvili, but improvements in that area allowed him to squeak by China’s Song Yadong in a competitive January fight. There’s no doubt that Suga’s popularity — and previous win over Petr Yan –— loom large as he tries to cut the line for a title shot in this division.

Aiemann Zahabi is no layup, though. Ask any of the men he’s bested on a seven-fight winning streak, including former championship contenders Jose Aldo and Marlon “Chito” Vera in his two most recent starts.

Zahabi trains at the legendary Tristar Gym in Montreal under famed MMA coach (and his brother), Fares. Those fundamentals are instilled in the best striking defense (69%) in the bantamweight rankings, and he hasn’t lost by finish since November 2017.

These men combine to average just 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes, so Zahabi’s selection for this card was intentional. Dana White wanted to give O’Malley a chance to strike. That still resulted in a pretty tricky puzzle to solve in the form of the 38-year-old veteran.

Find UFC Freedom 250 at The White House Predictions + Picks for every main card fight here

How Sean O’Malley Wins vs. Aiemann Zahabi at UFC White House

Sean O’Malley’s kickboxing style is akin to a crafty starting pitcher or point guard. He is so dangerous when he finds his “flow,” and that’s the exact path to victory against Aiemann Zahabi.

Zahabi’s lack of grappling prowess definitely eases concerns about some of O’Malley’s shortcomings, albeit at a championship level, coming back to light.

O’Malley’s lethality will directly correlate to how well he can enter his flow state against Zahabi’s elite striking defense, and he is the one who has fought Yan, Dvalishvili, Sterling, and other former champions and contenders. At this stage, Zahabi’s best win was a +25 striking differential against Vera. O’Malley (+141) blew Vera’s doors off.

As a footnote that could always loom large in hindsight, O’Malley is also the one of these two with a career submission attempt. He’s tried three. Every facet of your game can get tested this high in the rankings, even if that outcome would be quite stunning.

How Aiemann Zahabi Wins vs. Sean O’Malley at UFC White House

Even O’Malley’s supporters would probably acknowledge that Zahabi has the tools to beat him by decision.

When I mention the “flow state” for the favorite, that’s precisely what Zahabi interrupts with footwork, head movement, and occasional clinch-ups that have his striking defense so analytically brilliant.

Each of Zahabi’s four appearances in the last two years all had the same tenor. The Canadian edged an uncomfortable Round 1 and built stronger as the fight progressed. It’s the exact sort of muck that, if O’Malley’s focus and rhythm aren't ideal, can steal this result.

His low knockdown rate (0.55 KD%) and no historical submission offense provide few paths to victory outside the cards, but the longer this fight goes against someone with plenty of highlight KOs, the more Zahabi’s own confidence should rise.

Make your UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje Predictions on PrizePicks

O’Malley vs. Zahabi Prediction for UFC White House Featured Bout

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

O’Malley vs. Zahabi: UFC Predictive Model Results

Compared to the prediction markets on PrizePicks Team Picks, there’s actually not too much that's surprising in this model result.

In a fight where neither fighter has much grappling upside, it becomes a bit more predictable who will win minutes. O’Malley lands 1.51 more significant strikes per minute than Zahabi and has fought a higher level of competition, so it’s tough to see where Zahabi definitively gets ahead.

This isn’t just an “offense vs. defense” battle. O’Malley’s striking D (60%) is elite, too. In my opinion, that’s likely one of the model’s greatest reasons for nudging Sean ahead, given that his power (0.73 KD%) is also a touch higher historically.

Zahabi is definitely a live underdog if all 15 minutes are complete, but O’Malley’s historical knockout tendencies are definitely an arrow in his direction when forecasting the fight’s winner.

O’Malley vs. Zahabi Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Sean O’Malley – 28.5 Significant Strikes

In case you missed it, PrizePicks has discounted Sean O’Malley’s original projection (65.5) to this mark in celebration of Sunday’s event. Click here for more details.

The original projection for “Suga” carried a great deal of ambiguity coming off the worst striking effort of his career. His previous low for a three-round decision was 63 significant strikes, a mark Yadong held him below (48) in January.

As mentioned, Zahabi’s striking defense is a huge obstacle to counting totals. Zahabi’s opponents are averaging 47.0 significant strikes per fight during his winning streak, and five of these seven starts were full-length fights.

O’Malley is a difficult fighter to make median projections for because we’ve seen him crest 200 significant strikes in three-round fights when he enters that “flow state." 

The time between when he finds it and the end of this bout, though, would have created plenty of drama on either side of this projection. At the discounted mark, Zahabi's lack of a Round 1 loss in his entire UFC tenure helps ease concerns about a short fight.

Make picks on UFC Freedom 250 stats like significant strikes, fight time, takedowns, and more on PrizePicks to win real money if you're right.

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Make Your O’Malley vs. Zahabi Picks on PrizePicks

UFC Freedom 250 goes down this Saturday from The White House lawn in Washington, D.C.! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in O’Malley vs. Zahabi, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.

Stick around with the Playbook for continued UFC predictions, analysis, and more.