Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction, Pick for UFC White House

Sunday night will make history in the world of sports, and the UFC is center stage. For the first time ever, the White House will play host to a major sporting event: UFC Freedom 250.

Before the main event between Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje, the heavyweight interim championship will be on the line between Alex Pereira and Cyril Gane. However, for some, the true main event may be even earlier in the same heavyweight division: Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis, with plenty of bad blood between them.

In April, Hokit burst onto the scene as the division’s fastest-rising superstar in an all-time battle with Curtis Blaydes. That same night, Joe Rogan lobbied for him at UFC White House, and a potential opponent was obvious: Lewis, President Trump’s self-proclaimed favorite fighter.

This featured bout of UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje is expected to start around 9:35 p.m. ET on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

Below, we'll highlight our Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis prediction, followed by a pick for UFC White House.

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Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction, Payouts for UFC White House

Below are the UFC payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, 2x means that result would pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Josh Hokit: 1.23x to win ($100 pays $123)

• Hokit by KO/TKO: 1.69x
• Hokit by Submission: 5.26x
• Hokit by Decision: 6.66x

Derrick Lewis: 3.70x ($100 pays $370)

• Hokit by KO/TKO: 4.34x
• Hokit by Submission: 33.33x
• Hokit by Decision: 14.28x 

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

If it wasn’t evidence enough by some of his press conference misgivings, Josh Hokit might be crazy. But, in the octagon, he’s the right type of crazy that the heavyweight division desperately needed for relevance and entertainment value in 2026.

Hokit’s appearance in April against Curtis Blaydes — as his first fight in the rankings — defied all expectations. He landed 177 significant strikes in a bloody war, after all.

Pushing “The Incredible Hok” on this card was a no-brainer. The hidden secret behind the antics is that the former Fresno State fullback and collegiate wrestler has legitimate skills, posting a +2.44 striking success rate (SSR) in a limited sample thus far.

Opposite him stands a man who will embody the definition of a “puncher’s chance” until he’s elderly. Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis is UFC’s all-time knockout king with 16 KO/TKOs. Even into the past year, he's been catching bodies with his famous overhands:

At 41, Lewis doesn’t shy away from acknowledging his prime is over, but this is an outstanding opportunity to celebrate his career accomplishments. It'd be foolish to think he can’t stop Hokit’s hype train with just one fell swoop.

Find UFC Freedom 250 at The White House Predictions + Picks for every main card fight here.

How Josh Hokit Wins vs. Derrick Lewis at UFC White House

It’s refreshing to hear fighters contemplate their gameplan before the fight, and Hokit has acknowledged he’ll have to find a way to fight Lewis differently than he did Blaydes:

The obvious answer would be to use his wrestling background. Hokit still averages 3.89 takedowns per 15 minutes despite not landing any (and trying just one) opposite Blaydes, the division’s all-time leader in takedowns. Lewis' 52% takedown defense is poor, too.

Should his wrestling not work as planned, a strategy for length at distance is a must. At just 235 pounds for a heavyweight, Hokit’s best assets are speed and tempo, not power. The longer this fight goes, the more it could play into the hands of an athlete in his prime.

How Derrick Lewis Wins vs. Josh Hokit at UFC White House

Is this particularly necessary?

Lewis’ last decision win came in 2020, marking six straight triumphs where he’s landed a bomb to close the show. That’s always the plan when he hasn’t attempted a submission in 31 UFC starts. Plus, he’s landed just 3 takedowns in his last 11 fights — a rate that won’t improve into his 40s.

Hokit’s 44% striking defense was, at times, lazy and unintentional against Blaydes. If he’s making mistakes against Lewis, the consequences could be much greater.

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Hokit vs. Lewis Prediction for UFC White House Featured Bout

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Hokit vs. Lewis: UFC Predictive Model Results

Flatly, I get bad model results when the data isn’t normalized, and Hokit’s absolutely isn’t when most of his sample comes from an all-time brawl.

The 9-0 professional’s undefeated record gave the model fits when assessing Lewis's knockout probability, as he's a trend-buster himself with such low striking volume (2.45 significant strikes landed per minute) compared to his (T)KO finishes.

You typically see those two things correlate to a great degree, and Lewis is an all-time outlier.

I do think there is validity to Hokit’s substantially larger knockout (46.2%) than submission (16.9%) chances per the model, given his tendencies. He just hasn’t looked for subs in four UFC-affiliated appearances, and Lewis is curiously tough to submit. He’s only tapped twice in 42 pro fights.

Given Lewis’ poor striking volume, he may not be over 3.5 times more likely to win a decision than find a knockout. Some results I hold with more value than others, and this one falls into the latter bucket.

Hokit vs. Lewis Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Josh Hokit – 29.5 Significant Strikes

Especially for a wrestler, Hokit entered his fight with Blaydes averaging a ton of significant strikes per minute (6.07). One of the most action-packed fights ever didn’t lower that average, which sits at 9.25 entering this fight with Lewis.

Those lofty averages don’t make this mark a foregone conclusion in this particular matchup, though. If Hokit ducks under Lewis’ armpit, secures a takedown in the first 30 seconds, and wraps up a submission attempt for the first time in his UFC-affiliated sample, the American wrestler's total might barely start counting.

Ultimately, this projection’s forecast comes down to Lewis’ toughness. The underdog’s own win condition — a knockout earlier than later due to the expected heat and humidity — could limit significant strikes from that perspective as well.

Make picks on UFC Freedom 250 stats like significant strikes, fight time, takedowns, and more on PrizePicks to win real money if you're right.

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Make Your Hokit vs. Lewis Picks on PrizePicks

UFC Freedom 250 goes down this Sunday from The White House lawn in Washington, D.C.! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Hokit vs. Lewis, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.

Stick around with the Playbook for continued UFC predictions, analysis, and more.