Alex Pereira vs. Cyril Gane Prediction, Pick for UFC White House Co-Main Event

A bit of MMA history could be made alongside Sunday’s sporting event history, too.

With current heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall on the mend, the co-main event of UFC Freedom 250 from the White House’s south lawn features Alex “Poatan” Pereira, who is looking to become the first UFC fighter ever to win a championship in three different weight classes.

To do so, he’ll have to fend off the efforts of former UFC interim heavyweight champion Cyril Gane. Can Pereira make history, or will the French underdog break through to earn another chance at undisputed gold?

The co-main event of UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje is expected to start around 10:30 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

Below, we'll highlight our Alex Pereira vs. Cyril Gane prediction, followed by a pick for UFC Freedom 250.

Make your UFC Freedom 250 picks on winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks!

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Alex Pereira vs. Cyril Gane Prediction, Payouts for UFC White House Co-Main Event

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, 2x means that result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Alex Pereira: 1.81x

• By KO/TKO: 2.27x
• By Submission: 22.22x
• By Decision: 5.88x

Cyril Gane: 1.88x

• By KO/TKO: 4.16x
• By Submission: 14.28x
• By Decision: 3.84x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

There’s always a little bit more juice in the building — or in this case, outdoor venue — when the heavyweight strap is on the line. A matchup this delightful only adds to that intrigue.

This could be a striker’s paradise between two of the most technical big guys to ever do it. Of course, Pereira has become an MMA superstar through a fast ascent that saw him wipe out Sean Strickland, Israel Adesanya, Jiří Procházka, and countless others on a path of destruction across two divisions.

The Brazilian kickboxing specialist’s devastating calf kicks open up a thunderous left hand, and he’s not immune to some post-fight showmanship, either:

Moving up to heavyweight is yet another mountain he’s willing to climb when most weren’t sure he’d ever find the rankings due to a lack of grappling experience. Cyril Gane’s setbacks in that realm mean we may see “Poatan” and “Bon Gamin” duke it out in their domain.

Gane is perhaps one of the most disrespected fighters on the roster because he’s shrunk in big spots. Francis Ngannou outwrestled him in his first title opportunity. Jon Jones tapped him quickly in a second. He was also the cause of Aspinall’s eye injury, which has this interim belt on the line:

He’s still one of the most graceful heavyweight strikers in history with a fluidity and ability to tie strikes together that feels like poetry in motion. He’s got the highest striking success rate (+2.96 SSR) inside the rankings. Physically, his 6’4” frame with an 81” reach looks designed in a lab to win a heavyweight title, too.

Both of these men are used to the big stage, and matching them up in a test of skill (and size) is the marquee bout this historic card wanted.

Find UFC Freedom 250 at The White House Predictions + Picks for every main card fight here.

How Alex Pereira Wins vs. Cyril Gane at UFC White House

Pereira has fought as a middleweight in UFC, approximately 70 pounds below his recorded weight this weekend. At 6’4”, he’s not short on length, but he is a bit thinner and lighter for a heavyweight, which means he'll need to turn his usual edge (power) into a new one (speed).

Gane’s usual advantage is his ability to move at his size, but Pereira has had to face 185ers with natural foot speed. That'll make Gane’s movement a bit more natural to him than other heavyweights.

At 38, “Poatan” is who he is. He’s not going to have a wrestling or grappling path in this fight. His gameplan is very similar to usual: hit the calf kick, slow down his opponent’s movement, and put combinations together with his hands when that is compromised.

I also think Pereira needs to be mindful of aggressive exchanges given that, now facing the division with the most power in the sport, his chin has fallen short previously in a fight he was winning.

How Cyril Gane Wins vs. Alex Pereira at UFC White House

Gane’s approach to this fight could be very interesting.

The Frenchman actually earned a submission in his UFC debut. A total stunner could be that “Bon Gamin” decided to use his strength advantage to grapple Pereira and suck the air out of this matchup.

However, at a distance, he’ll be looking to implore that same advantage, too. He’s the natural heavyweight. He needs to be the power threat, which isn’t usually his role. His last knockdown came in 2022 against Tai Tuivasa, who is currently on a seven-fight losing skid.

Gane has arguably never lost the distance battle in 12 UFC fights. His striking defense is seven percentage points higher than Pereira’s. That confidence has to exude from the opening bell because Pereira is an intimidating force who's knocked out so many championship contenders, but that was at a lower weight class.

The underdog can’t forget his own experience of winning at points against Aspinall, Jones, and Ngannou.

Make your UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje Prediction on PrizePicks.

Pereira vs. Gane Prediction for UFC White House Heavyweight Title Fight

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

Here are my Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane predictions for the UFC White House via my predictive model.

Pereira vs. Gane Model Results for UFC White House Fight

As perhaps a bit of a surprise to some, the model has Cyril Gane as a slight favorite here, projecting him to win 56.3% of the time.

Anecdotally, my model has struggled a bit with Pereira due to his mathematical shortcomings. A pedestrian striking defense (53%), so-so knockdown rate for larger divisions (1.02 KD%), and minimal grappling upside do not encapsulate landing the right strike at the right time.

Gane, of course, is a model star. His +2.96 SSR is elite in any division, and Pereira’s lack of wrestling soothes concerns about a 47% takedown defense.

Overall, 46.9% probability this fight goes all 25 minutes comes from Gane’s lack of power and, simultaneously, lack of chin concerns. He’s never been knocked out as a pro.

One of the most common questions I get about the model is how to adjust for weight-class shifts. The simple answer? I don’t. There’s no corollary direction fighters collectively head when they happen. Durability, output, power, and other factors vary fighter to fighter.

This fight is a great example. Does a lack of a weight cut help Pereira’s durability, or does facing a bigger puncher lead to more devastating consequences? That question is impossible to answer without hindsight.

Pereira vs. Gane Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Alex Pereira – 0.5 Knockdowns

Knockdowns are one of the newest projection categories on PrizePicks, and it doesn’t get more intriguing to talk about one than this fight for “Poatan."

In lower divisions, Pereira has seven knockdowns in 12 octagon appearances. You might wonder how that’s not higher with seven knockout wins, right? Well, he’s found a (T)KO without a drop twice.

Cyril Gane has been dropped once. It was by Tuivasa, whose 1.63 KD% is gigantic and perhaps his lone selling point as a fighter. Otherwise, the Frenchman’s footwork and 60% striking defense have kept him safe.

This prop takes one single strike and one moment, and there are 25 potential minutes on the schedule, but Gane hasn't been an easy puzzle to solve for distance strikers.

Make picks on UFC Freedom 250 stats like significant strikes, fight time, takedowns, and more on PrizePicks to win real money if you're right.

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Make Your Pereira vs. Gane Picks for UFC White House on PrizePicks

UFC Freedom 250’s main event goes down this Sunday from The White House lawn in Washington, D.C.! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Pereira vs. Gane, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.

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