UFC Shanghai Predictions — Nurmagomedov vs. Song & All Main Card Fights

For the second time in 2026, the UFC returns to the evolving mixed martial arts landscape of China. Their same native son will headline this card, too.

Song Yadong got a huge submission win in Macau earlier this year, and he’s looking to carry that momentum into a meeting with unstoppable Dagestani wrestler Umar Nurmagomedov. The winner of this 135-pound main event has a clear path to a future title opportunity against Petr Yan.

The UFC Shanghai main card features five fights, with Nurmagomedov a heavy favorite over Yadong in the main event, according to PrizePicks Team Picks payouts.

In the co-main event, former women’s strawweight title challenger Yan Xiaonan returns for the first time this year, and if she wants to re-establish her status as a contender, she’ll have to halt the four-fight winning streak of Brazilian powerhouse Denise Gomes.

The UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song main card starts Saturday morning at 6:00 a.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC Shanghai predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Nurmagomedov vs. Song and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC Shanghai predictions on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right on every fight, including on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

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UFC Shanghai Predictions for Nurmagomedov vs. Song & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Shanghai predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song’s main card is expected to start at 6:00 a.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong — Bantamweight
• Co-Main Event: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes — Women’s Strawweight
• Aoriqileng vs. Kai Asakura — Bantamweight
• Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji — Flyweight
• Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. — Light Heavyweight
• Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas — Flyweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Shanghai main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Make your UFC Shanghai predictions on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right on every fight, including on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong Prediction for UFC Shanghai

Fight Winner Payouts: Umar Nurmagomedov 1.13x | Song Yadong 5.26x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

Nurmagomedov vs. Song Model Results:

Many fighters compete for their own legacy. It seems Umar Nurmagomedov enters with added pressure to uphold what is a world-famous reputation for his team.

We saw Islam Makhachev compete two weeks ago at UFC 330, and his 135-pound teammate will take center stage in Shanghai. Like Islam, Umar has built his reputation as the boogeyman and a future champion in this division with elite wrestling (4.03 takedowns per 15 minutes) and top control, smothering most in his way.

That description may undersell the Russian, though, because his striking alone can hang with some of the best in the division, too:

But there is a reason why Nurmagomedov doesn’t have this division’s belt. We saw some of the issues he faced deep into a five-round fight with a strong wrestler, Merab Dvalishvili. The gas tank wilted. His striking threat fell apart without takedowns. Can Song Yadong recreate that formula?

If Yadong can keep his feet, he’ll have a chance to deliver a Rocky-like story to his home fans. That’s something he’s done incredibly well as he’s entered his prime, stuffing 31 of his opponents’ last 37 takedown attempts. Plus, “The Kung Fu Kid” showed earlier this year that you can’t lazily enter wrestling exchanges with him:

If someone asked me why projections look as lopsided as they do, Nurmagomedov’s heritage could be the only explanation. Yadong is a well-rounded, skilled opponent who proved by submitting Deiveson Figueiredo in May that he can compete with this division’s best. Umar had 15 minutes to find the finish on “Figgy” in January and could not.

This isn’t to diminish a well-rounded, battle-tested Nurmagomedov, who can win this fight wherever it goes. However, if Yadong can stuff early takedowns, keep the fight at a distance, and let variance—and perhaps friendly judging as the crowd clings onto every big action—work in his favor, he should compete for a career-defining victory.

Predict the Nurmagomedov vs. Song Winner at UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

Nurmagomedov vs. Song Pick for UFC Fight Night

Umar Nurmagomedov – 70.5 Significant Strikes

It’s harrowing to click a “Less” in a fight that my model has projected at 57.4% likely to go the distance, but that’s fairly understood here. Nurmagomedov has gone the distance in five of his six appearances dating back to June 2022.

Look no further than Umar’s teammate, Islam. Two weeks ago in 25 minutes, the 170-pound champ landed just 22 significant strikes. When wrestling, top control, and risk mitigation are top priorities, that generates a low volume of significant strikes landed per minute (3.86).

Yadong’s striking defense (55%) is also strong, and he absorbed just 3.20 significant strikes per minute against a longer, more voluminous Sean O’Malley in January despite 86.0% of the fight taking place at distance.

Make Your Nurmagomedov vs. Song Pick for UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes Prediction for UFC Shanghai

Fight Winner Payouts: Yan Xiaonan 1.58x | Denise Gomes 2.22x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight (115 lbs.)

Xiaonan vs. Gomes Model Results:

For the fourth time in her UFC career, 37-year-old Yan Xiaonan will make the walk in her home country of China. It’ll be her first time in Shanghai since her UFC debut in 2017.

That has to feel special for the former 115-pound title challenger, who has dropped two of just three fights since the start of 2024. One was a championship opportunity against fellow countrywoman Zhang Weili, and Virna Jandiroba controlled her for 9:59 last April.

Perhaps the fleeting dreams of gold are why her schedule has been sparse, but at her best, Xiaonan is an elite kickboxer and point fighter, overwhelming opponents with 10.42 significant strike attempts per minute. Though not much of an offensive wrestler or grappler, a feather in her cap is a full-length, 25-minute win over a younger version of current champion Mackenzie Dern:

We’ll see just how potent rising prospect Denise Gomes is in this matchup. Gomes has won four in a row in a division that’s getting crowded with 20-somethings at the top like Fatima Kline and Alexia Thainara. Gomes’ unusual power for a strawweight is the ultimate “don’t forget about me” reminder when on display:

The model’s verdict here is an ode to both “Father Time” and Xiaonan’s thin margins, which worked fine against Dern but have bitten her in recent setbacks. The gap in finishing danger is obvious when Gomes, on the back of 1.45 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, can also enjoy some of the wrestling success that Virna Jandiroba had.

Predict the Xiaonan vs. Gomes Winner at UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

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Xiaonan vs. Gomes Pick for UFC Fight Night

Denise Gomes – 49.5 Significant Strikes

Here’s where the model’s forecast for a full fight (57.1%) could prove fruitful. Both of these ladies attempt over 9.00 significant strikes per minute.

Historically, Xiaonan has elite striking defense (60%), but we’ve seen her extended in fights with strikers that have comparable length, and the counting totals for Marina Rodriguez (72) and Angela Hill (71) did not disappoint.

She’s had unusual matchups, like the Jandiroba one with so much control, leading to the rolling average of her last five opponents sitting at just 41.0 significant strikes—and two of those outings were 25-minute affairs. That may have suppressed this projection.

Make Your Xiaonan vs. Gomes Pick for UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

Aoriqileng vs. Kai Asakura Prediction for UFC Shanghai

Fight Winner Payouts: Aoriqileng 4.16x | Kai Asakura 1.20x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

Kai Asakura’s arrival in a new weight class led to a highlight in Macau, and he’s looking to make a second in Shanghai.

Asakura, a high-profile free agent from Japan that infamously got a flyweight title shot in his first UFC fight, slimed out Cameron Smotherman in under two minutes:

The former RIZIN champion’s speed at distance is a huge, huge problem for bantamweight, as that combination showed. However, the consecutive submission losses at flyweight with this promotion have me wondering what Asakura’s long-term upside is if larger fighters are going to grapple with him.

It appears the goal at present is simply to put on a fun fight. Aoriqileng, aptly nicknamed “The Mongolian Murderer,” isn’t much of a grappling threat. He’s added 1.11 takedowns per 15 minutes in a complementary sense, but the Chinese knockout artist has just 1 submission win in 39 pro fights.

Interestingly, Aoriqileng is also a former flyweight, using a similar formula to find an occasional highlight or two with his speed:

I do think Asakura’s 50% takedown defense may allow the underdog to stall out parts of this fight, but the diversity in the Japanese’s fighters attacks is much greater than Aoriqileng’s. The latter is more of a standard boxer with occasional low kicks, and we saw how quickly he fell behind Daniel Marcos with a -36 striking differential.

Don’t sleep on this one’s “Fight of the Night” potential as two durable warriors slug it out on the feet.

Predict the Aoriqileng vs. Asakura Winner at UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

Aoriqileng vs. Asakura Pick for UFC Fight Night

Kai Asakura – 32.5 Significant Strikes

Asakura’s power might be totally overblown after the Smotherman effort. In his last five RIZIN starts, the Japanese phenom reached the eighth minute in all of them. He’s now at a heavier weight class against more durable guys, Smotherman’s questionable chin aside.

With that being the case, Asakura’s output is still a bit of an unknown at this level. He’s mustered just 7.44 significant strike attempts per minute, but that’s clouded by a ton of control time allowed at flyweight.

It’s possible Aoriqileng scores some, but his career high for control time in a fight is 5:39, and his poor striking defense (46%) could allow Asakura to land at his highest clip yet.

Make Your Aoriqileng vs. Asakura Pick for UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji Prediction for UFC Shanghai

Fight Winner Payouts: Alex Perez 2.70x | Sumudaerji 1.42x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)

Perez vs. Sumudaerji Model Results:

After an unfortunate ending in Macau, a flyweight rematch between Alex Perez and Sumudaerji will finally be settled on Saturday.

These two top-15 flyweights met in Sumudaerji’s home country, eyeing a potential main event spot with a win. It was a strong start for “The Tibetan Eagle,” who rocked and hurt Perez early and seemingly had the American on the ropes. But you’ve got to control your weapons, and a vicious low blow ceased Perez’s ability to fight:

Sumudaerji’s early success has positioned him as a favorite in the rematch, and frankly, he’s always a brutal matchup for anyone in this 125-pound division. At 5’8” with a 72” reach, he towers over most foes, and Perez, ceding seven inches in reach, was no different. Early in his career, he struggled as a grappler with three UFC losses via submission, but he has none since the start of 2024.

Perez’s misfortune does give him the chance to adjust to a game plan that wasn’t working, though. The American tried just two takedowns in a little over seven minutes, and his problems finding the range against Sumudaerji probably won’t be considerably different.

Does he lean more into what is, historically, a strong grappling attack? He’s secured 2.07 takedowns and 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, but costly mistakes have bit him deploying this game plan:

I’ll be fascinated to see how the fighters adjust after the first bout, and the projections certainly have adjusted. Sumudaerji was a slight underdog in May, but that sentiment is long gone.

Predict the Perez vs. Sumudaerji Winner at UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

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Perez vs. Sumudaerji Pick for UFC Fight Night

Alex Perez – 30.5 Significant Strikes

Specifically for this projection, May’s fight was very telling.

In over seven minutes of action, Perez landed just 9 significant strikes. Even his usually reliable leg kicks converted at just a 40% clip. At his best, Sumudaerji—and his elite 63% striking D—are pretty untouchable.

Even if he adjusts to my recommended game plan, that likely won’t boost his counting totals for strikes. Perez has landed just 38.3 significant strikes in four career fights where he landed multiple takedowns, and that was before the intrinsic challenges that come from the favorite’s length.

If Sumudaerji is able to hurt the American quickly once more, that would also put this “More” in jeopardy.

Make Your Perez vs. Sumudaerji Pick for UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. Prediction for UFC Shanghai

Fight Winner Payouts: Liu Ce 1.47x | Levi Rodrigues Jr. 2.50x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)

UFC’s goal in this fight is obvious. They want to build a potential future Chinese star in the light heavyweight division. It’ll be up to Liu Ce to deliver.

Ce is a former K1 kickboxing champion making the transition to MMA, which didn’t work out too poorly for similarly sized athletes like Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira. The 205er’s fluidity and quickness in his kicks are reminiscent of those two:

Of course, any kickboxing transition raises the immediate questions of how the fighter can grapple in MMA. Liu lost in October 2024 as a pro MMA fighter with no answer for ground-and-pound attacks. As the 29-year-old rounds out his skills, the promotion likely had a goal for a striker’s delight in this fight with Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Rodrigues Jr. has no career wins via submission, with all five pro wins coming via (T)KO. He won his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series with a first-round ground-and-pound of Freddy Vidal. However, the official promotion debut last month in Oklahoma City didn’t go according to plan:

Brazil’s “Baby Monster” is the more well-rounded, classically trained MMA fighter, so the question becomes if he can lean into those skills we haven’t seen much to get this fight to the ground and win it. If not, Liu Ce is a credentialed kickboxer with a nasty record of finishes.

Don’t blink in this light heavyweight featured bout.

Predict the Ce vs. Rodrigues Jr. Winner at UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

Ce vs. Rodrigues Jr. Pick for UFC Fight Night

Levi Rodrigues Jr. – 11.5 Significant Strikes

Even if Rodrigues Jr. has made a focus to grapple in this short-notice training camp, that shouldn't lead to many significant strikes.

In 2:49 of distance time, Rodrigues Jr. landed 11 strikes on a shorter, smaller Felipe Franco. Liu’s elite length (78” reach) and years of kickboxing defense won’t make that task much easier.

The question becomes whether this fight can be extended, but “Baby Monster” has an abysmal 29% striking defense against a world-class striker. He better be able to quickly floor this fight.

Make Your Ce vs. Rodrigues Jr. Pick for UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

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Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas Prediction for UFC Shanghai

Fight Winner Payouts: Bilal Hasan 1.13x | Nilson Rojas 5.55x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)

For the second week in a row, the main card opens with a Dana White’s Contender Series alum featured, but this one is no advertisement.

Nilson Rojas, a 9-0 flyweight from Peru that trains with Kevin Borjas, Rodrigo Vera, and other quality Peruvian fighters at Pitbull Martial Arts Center, is no pushover. He’s just unfortunately in the way of one of the sport’s best prospects of all time.

Bilal Hasan made an emphatic statement as the largest favorite in Contender Series history at the time, needing just 45 seconds to knock out Mridul Saikia:

The 25-year-old “Indoninja” has been lauded as the next big thing as a four-time defending CFFC champion in the Northeast U.S. His elite speed, diversity of striking attacks, and impenetrable grappling defense at his age are quite remarkable.

What can we expect from Rojas in this spot? To an extent, I count on his durability of having never been finished, and he’s clearly a responsible, polished boxer in his own right:

As Hasan steps onto the big stage, it would benefit him and everyone involved to see a much tougher test than Saikia gave him two weeks ago. Rojas seems primed to, at the very least, deliver that.

Predict the Hasan vs. Rojas Winner at UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

Hasan vs. Rojas Pick for UFC Fight Night

Hasan vs. Rojas – 7.5 Minutes Fight Time

Though the Contender Series matchup was a pretty gross mismatch, Bilal Hasan has been in longer fights even before this one, which is easily the stiffest of his career.

In three of his four CFFC title defenses, the Indonesian saw a seventh minute, and that’s on the regional scene.

That sort of holds with general flyweight divisional trends. The rolling yearly average of flyweight early stoppages is 47.1% since 2016, the third-lowest of any men’s weight class. Anecdotally, these smaller guys with less power tend to need submissions over knockouts to secure an early stoppage, and Hasan has just one in his career.

I was impressed with Rojas upon tape study this week and believe his stock might rise in a potential competitive defeat.

Make Your Hasan vs. Rojas Pick for UFC Shanghai on PrizePicks.

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Shanghai: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results."

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

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Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks or lift championship gold.

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Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Shanghai, headlined by Nurmagomedov vs. Song, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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