UFC Macau Predictions for Song vs. Figueiredo & Main Card Fights

The UFC Fight Night global tour continues on Saturday morning from the Middle Kingdom in Macau, China. In the UFC Macau main event, Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo, top-10 bantamweight contender Song makes his first appearance on home soil since 2018, as he faces former 125-pound champion Figueiredo.

The UFC Fight Night main card is set to start at 7 a.m. ET — yes, in the morning — on Paramount+.

We will give you an in-depth preview of every main card fight for UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo, including our UFC Macau predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks.

Make your UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo predictions on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right!

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UFC Macau Predictions for Song vs. Figueiredo & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Macau predictions for Saturday morning, a brief intro on what you'll find below.

Here is the UFC Macau main card for Saturday morning, expected to start at 7 a.m. ET with the first main card fight. Prelim card will begin at 4 a.m. ET.

• Main Event: Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo – Bantamweight
• Co-main: Zhang Mingyang vs Alonzo Menifield – Light Heavyweight
• Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira – Heavyweight
• Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman – Bantamweight
• Muslim Salikhov vs Jake Matthews – Welterweight
• Alex Perez vs Su Mudaerji – Flyweight

We've listed the payouts for who will win each UFC Fight Night main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 35 states, including Florida, California, and Texas!

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all results included below.

Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Prediction for UFC Macau

Fight Winner Payouts: Song Yadong 1.16x | Deiveson Figueiredo 4.76x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

Song vs. Figueiredo Model Results:

It’s only fitting that China’s highest-ranked fighter in the UFC will cap what has been a busy weekend for the promotion in China. In addition to Saturday’s card, Road to UFC finales have imported additional talent from Asia with some sweet highlights along the way:

Song will try to send the fans home happy with a rebound performance after a loss to Suga Sean O’Malley in Las Vegas earlier this year. “The Kung Fu Kid” has power radiating throughout his entire game with a significant 0.75% knockdown rate (KD%) for this division’s standards, and his incredibly strong base makes him a dynamic fighter wrestling offensively or defensively.

That ended up being a nightmare for Ricky Simon in Song’s first five-round fight with UFC:

On the other side of this one, Deiveson Figueiredo is definitely being written off by many, as seen by his high payout to win the fight on PrizePicks (4.76x).

The former flyweight champion’s 4-3 record in this new division at 135 pounds hasn’t made much of an imprint, and he’s now 38 years old.

At 5’5”, Figueiredo is the smaller fighter in just about every bout, and this one will be no different.

However, “Deus de Guerra” is still dangerous everywhere. His 1.69 KD% has certainly mostly been accumulated at the lower weight bracket. However, he was the first man to drop Marlon Vera and first to submit Cody Garbrandt at 135 pounds:

That submission danger could be a huge factor in this fight when Song hasn’t faced a fighter averaging over 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes since 2018. Figueiredo (1.2 sub attempts/15 minutes) is extremely opportunistic at snatching the neck.

At times, I believe my model has struggled with Song’s identity. He does everything at a B+ level, but doesn’t have that one signature trait except, perhaps, his hallmark durability.

If I had to guess, that’s probably why he’s such a substantial favorite in this fight. Because without key moments of danger, “Figgy” has never been much of a point fighter. 18 of his 25 pro wins have come by stoppage — and he may need one in this fight to win.

Predict the Song vs. Figueiredo Winner at UFC Macau on PrizePicks

UFC Macau: Song vs. Figueiredo Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo – 4.5 Total Rounds

The model’s projection for a full-distance fight (46.8%) is right around the mark of this fight's total rounds fight on PrizePicks.

It’s an interesting dynamic when Figueiredo’s experience allowed him to see the end of a five-round main event with the champion (Petr Yan) and a three-round fight with the No. 1 contender (Umar Nurmagomedov).

Still, does the Figueiredo that resorted to desperate leg locks against Cory Sandhagen show up? Sandhagen easily finished the Brazilian by second-round (T)KO once that gameplan shift began.

Both fighters here carry plus power on paper, and Figueiredo’s submission projection in the model (13.4%) is noteworthy when he’s such a departure from Yadong’s striking-heavy schedule over the past half-decade.

Make Your Song vs. Figueiredo Pick for UFC Macau on PrizePicks

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Zhang Mingyang vs. Alonzo Menifield Prediction for UFC Macau

Fight Winner Payouts: Zhang Mingyang 1.36x | Alonzo Menifield 2.94x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)

Mingyang vs. Menifield Model Results:

During the UFC’s last visit to China in Shanghai, the main event didn’t go as planned.

After four straight first-round finishes, Zhang Mingyang was a substantial favorite to enter the top 10 at light heavyweight by defeating Johnny Walker, but Mingyang’s performance quickly went south as the lanky Brazilian chopped away at his lower calf:

The powerful Chinese prospect will get another chance to build on that experience in Saturday’s co-main event against slugger “Atomic” Alonzo Menifield.

Menifield’s late-career surge has met a ceiling in the form of top-10 contenders Carlos Ulberg, Volkan Oezdemir, and Azamat Murzakanov. All three stopped the American inside of 10 minutes with strikes. However, he’s turned back inexperienced prospects like Julius Walker and Oumar Sy in this same stretch.

Considering just five UFC-affiliated appearances, Mingyang’s inexperience was fatal in his last bout, and he really didn’t collect much additional octagon time. The bezerker averages 7.71 significant strikes per minute in his limited sample with tremendous power (1.97 KD%), so it’s a given that he can put out Menifield – 38 years old and collecting attrition quickly – in short order.

However, what would this fight look like in deeper waters? That’s probably the place where the underdog, having gone the full 15 minutes in 3 of his last 6 fights, would probably like the bout to end up.

Predict the Mingyang vs. Menifield Winner at UFC Macau on PrizePicks

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UFC Macau: Mingyang vs. Menifield Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Alonzo Menifield – 18.5 Significant Strikes

Menifield’s significant strikes projection is on the low end in a light heavyweight fight where violence is an easy forecast.

This division’s 58% early stoppage rate was the second-highest in UFC in 2025, and Mingyang hasn’t seen the eighth minute of a fight in five octagon appearances.

However, “Atomic” Alonzo has topped this mark in each of his last five appearances outside of the top 10, and the Chinese favorite is closer to an unknown than bonafide contender at this point.

Mingyang’s first four octagon opponents had a combined UFC record of 17-22, and Walker (8-7 UFC) handled him quite easily.

Expecting the American to post significant strikes early will be a bit unsettling if Mingyang is at his peak aggressiveness, but this could be yet another unexpected extended fight for Menifield. The model’s projection on a full fight (36.3%) was higher than I anticipated, given Mingyang’s tendencies.

Make Your Mingyang vs. Menifield Pick for UFC Macau on PrizePicks

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira Prediction for UFC Macau

Fight Winner Payouts: Sergei Pavlovich 1.16x | Tallison Teixeira 4.76x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)

Pavlovich vs. Teixeira Model Results: N/A (Teixeira ineligible)

A massive heavyweight fight will go down on the White House lawn in June, and Sergei Pavlovich will have a chance to say, “don’t forget about me” on Saturday’s card.

The Russian knockout artist has still won 8 of his last 10 fights – setbacks to top-three contenders Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov aside. It’s just also been a bit since we’ve seen the brawler drop the hammer. Pavlovich’s last thunderous (T)KO was in 2023 against Curtis Blaydes:

He’ll look to get back on track against Tallison Teixeira, a 2-1 prospect coming off a decision win over Tai Tuivasa. Tuivasa’s seven-fight losing skid, including a 23-second loss to Pavlovich, means that win just doesn’t project how he’ll fare inside the rankings when Derrick Lewis also scored a first-round (T)KO over him:

Conceivably, Texeira has a jiu-jitsu path here as a listed black belt, but he has just one pro win via submission and failed to secure one on Tuivasa. At striking range, the 6’7” Brazilian’s chin sits way up in the air for Pavlovich — and his massive 2.52 KD% — to wing punches.

In a division where everyone has a puncher’s chance, “Xicao” Teixeira likely needs to find a powerful solution to pull the upset as a huge dog.

Predict the Pavlovich vs. Teixeira Winner at UFC Macau on PrizePicks

UFC Macau: Pavlovich vs. Teixeira Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira – 4.75 Minutes Fight Time

It’s been 28 months since Pavlovich’s last first-round stoppage, which is just bananas when he entered UFC on an eight-fight streak of never needing to head back to his corner and prep for a second round.

That’s correlated with a step-up in competition to three top-10 contenders, including securing his first two career takedowns against Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rosenstruik last year.

Here, Teixeira has a 75.0% first-round finish rate across four UFC-affiliated appearances, and this matchup also stylistically profiles as a “Rock ‘Em, Sock ‘Em Robots” sort of affair.

Unexpected length has been the order of the Russian’s last three fights, so it’s not far-fetched when Texeira also enters off his first decision as a pro. Urgency to make a statement could make all the difference, though.

Make Your Pavlovich vs. Teixeira Pick for UFC Macau on PrizePicks

Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman Prediction for UFC Macau

Fight Winner Payouts: Kai Asakura 1.29x | Cameron Smotherman 3.33x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

Asakura vs. Smotherman Model Results: N/A (Asakura ineligible)

Kai Asakura’s UFC tenure has been a disaster.

A longtime champion from Japan’s RIZIN promotion, Asakura made history as the first UFC men’s fighter ever to fight for a title in his debut. Alexandre Pantoja submitted him in Round 2, which was forgivable.

However, a “bounce back” opposite journeyman Tim Elliott also didn’t go according to plan:

As a result, even a champion as credentialed as Asakura is likely fighting for his UFC roster spot opposite Cameron Smotherman, who is 1-3 in UFC. He’ll do so fighting at 135 pounds for the first time since 2023.

Smotherman showing up on the schedule is probably intentional. The Houston-based boxer has zero takedown or submission attempts to his name in four UFC-affiliated appearances, giving Asakura the chance to avoid the grappling exchanges that have plagued him to this point.

Against entry-level competition, Smotherman’s +0.33 striking success rate (SSR) is certainly better than Asakura’s (-1.26) at a championship level. How those rates normalize at their respective levels of competition will likely decide the fight, given that both fighters are 5’8” with a 69” reach.

Three years ago, Asakura against Smotherman — who had just been flatted on Dana White’s Contender Series — wouldn’t have even been sanctioned. There is some drama about the global Japanese star moving up in weight after two dud performances, but he’s an understandable favorite in what should be a fun striking battle.

Predict the Asakura vs. Smotherman Winner at UFC Macau on PrizePicks

UFC Macau: Asakura vs. Smotherman Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Cameron Smotherman – 46.5 Significant Strikes

Without much of an opportunity to see Asakura in fights where he wasn’t petrified of takedown attempts, it’s probably a bit of an unknown how he’ll rack up strikes in a favorable matchup.

To this point, Asakura’s land rate (2.27 per minute) and Smotherman’s absorption rate (3.46) are both quite low, and Asakura’s striking defense (54%) should improve as the faster man moving up in weight.

Both work against Cameron Smotherman’s counting total for strikes, and it also can’t be forgotten that — at a much lower level of competition — the Texan has shown durability issues:

By way of an early finish or simply just being unable to land on the former RIZIN champion, it could be a challenging night at the office for Smotherman, who has averaged just 46.8 significant strikes per appearance so far.

Make Your Asakura vs. Smotherman Pick for UFC Macau on PrizePicks

Carlston Harris vs. Jake Matthews Prediction for UFC Macau

Fight Winner Payouts: Carlston Harris 3.57x | Jake Matthews 1.28x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)

Harris vs. Matthews Model Results:

Muslim Salikhov’s withdrawal nearly compromised the latest “Celtic Kid” appearance in China, but veteran Carlston Harris has saved the day:

Jake Matthews is somehow just 31 despite a UFC career stretching back to 2014, when he was 19 years old. We’ve seen the highs and lows in the totality of a 15-8 stretch.

Between plus boxing — with a +0.72 SSR, and a lofty volume of takedown attempts (3.51 per 15 minutes), there really isn’t anything Matthews struggles with beyond momentary lapses in judgment. That bit him against Neil Magny last fall in Perth:

Coming off the heels of that front choke, Carlston “Mocambique” Harris is an interesting matchup. The Jamaican fighter has 2 completed anaconda chokes in 7 appearances, with one of the tightest squeezes at welterweight:

Harris, though, is 38-years-old, and the chin seems to be relegating him to “boom or bust” territory after having been dropped in consecutive fights.

His 76” reach, on a per-minute basis, can be tricky, and he’s got really high-level wins on his resume like PFL champion Impa Kasanganay.

As the younger, more athletic fighter, Matthews’ standing as a favorite makes sense. However, he’s historically someone who finds a way to put himself in dangerous positions, and Harris’ submission rate and 1.03 KD% demand respect.

In one fashion or another, this fight should have dramatic moments before deciding a victor.

Predict the Harris vs. Matthews Winner at UFC Macau on PrizePicks

UFC Macau: Harris vs. Matthews Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Jake Matthews – 40.5 Significant Strikes

Jake Matthews’ low rate of significant strikes landed per minute (3.34) showcases the bumpy journey he’s taken with the promotion. He’s been the hammer, the nail, and everything in between.

However, Matthews' counting totals don’t seem to project extraordinarily high in this matchup, either.

Harris’ own power and finishing danger are prevalent, and he’s got pedestrian enough takedown defense (64%) to wonder if “Mocambique” will seek a body lock to get to the clinch after his chin has failed him in consecutive appearances.

Matthews’ totals would, of course, be at risk if he were able to find the same button as Khaos Williams and Santiago Ponzinibbio did. He’s no stranger to a swift, dominant knockout at his best.

Make Your Harris vs. Matthews Pick for UFC Macau on PrizePicks

Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji Prediction for UFC Macau Main Card Fight

Fight Winner Payouts: Alex Perez 1.69x | Sumudaerji 2.12x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)

Perez vs. Sumudaerji Model Results:

This would be a landmark victory for China’s Sumudaerji on home soil if he can sneak past crafty, well-rounded veteran Alex Perez.

Every time you want to count out Perez, he finds a way to keep his spot in the top 10. Earlier this year, it was a knockout to end Charles Johnson’s surge up the rankings:

Fighting in the top 10 for over five years, Perez’s +1.21 SSR is a testament to his skill with elite striking (59%) and takedown (75%) defense metrics. Really, injuries have held the Californian back more than anything, leading UFC with canceled fights (13) since the start of 2020.

We’ll see if he can solve the increasingly difficult puzzle that is “The Tibetan Eagle”. Sumudaerji, 30, has shored up early-career grappling liabilities working with Urijah Faber’s “Team Alpha Male” gym in Sacramento.

He’s put the pieces together to maximize what is a ridiculously large frame for this division. A 72” reach at flyweight leaves most opponents stumped, per a +2.12 SSR.

Perez would certainly like to test just how much he’s made defending submissions, but it’s just very hard to overcome the cushion that Sumudaerji has at kicking range. It’ll be fascinating to see which fighter can make this fight take place in their preferred domain.

Predict the Perez vs. Sumudaerji Winner at UFC Macau on PrizePicks

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UFC Macau: Perez vs. Sumudaerji Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Alex Perez – 2.5 Takedowns

Sumudaerji’s entry-level takedown defense (72%) has always been extremely strong. He’s just had a hard time defending chokes when someone cracks the code.

On the wrong end of a 7-inch reach deficit, it would make sense to see Perez try to wrestle here. He averages 4.60 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and lands a decent amount (48%) of them.

It’s just tough to forecast that sort of efficiency against Sumudaerji, who has defended 26 of his last 35 takedown attempts faced, including against grappling specialists like Jesus Aguilar and Mitch Raposo.

A peculiar verdict from the model on an early stoppage in this fight (63.9%) would seemingly work against both fighters’ overall counting stats, as well.

Make Your Perez vs. Sumudaerji Pick for UFC Macau on PrizePicks

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Macau: How it Works

I've created a predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Each UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed below with this model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks tonight.

Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make UFC Macau Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Macau goes down this Saturday morning, as UFC Fight Night heads to China, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks.

Before the prelim action gets underway on Paramount+ at 4 a.m. ET, lock in your UFC predictions for tonight's main card, which starts at 7 a.m. ET.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Macau, headlined by Song vs. Figueiredo, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, available in 35 states!

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