Dana White’s Contender Series Predictions, Picks Tonight – Week 5 (9/8/26)

Not many sports have a job audition on live television. Mixed martial arts and the UFC aren’t like the other sports.

Every summer, Dana White scours local regional MMA scenes for the future stars of UFC, pitting the world’s top prospects against each other on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) for 10 weeks, every Tuesday night.

These prospects don't just need to win; to get a contract, they’ve got to impress the boss, making the bouts even more action-packed than weekly UFC events. As an even more unique twist, sometimes even losers of wild fights get signed.

The action goes down every Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down Season 10, Episode 5 with predictions, predictive analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks.

Make your Dana White’s Contender Series predictions on PrizePicks on winners, sig strikes, and more

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Dana White’s Contender Series Predictions Tonight for Week 5 – Tuesday, September 8

Before we get into our Dana White’s Contender Series predictions for tonight, here’s a brief intro on the fight card for tonight's DWCS Week 5 event.

Season 10, Episode 5 of the Contender Series is expected to start at 7:00 p.m. ET, with the first fight on Paramount+. As usual, there are five fights scheduled. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Featured Bout: Quentin Pasley vs. Arlind Berisha — Light Heavyweight
• Isaac Moreno vs. Reginaldo Junior — Welterweight
• Martin Kozak vs. Christian Echols — Middleweight
• Kwon Won Il vs. Apollo Gomes — Bantamweight
• Colton Loud vs. Christian Natividad — Flyweight

We’ll list the payouts to win each Contender Series fight via PrizePicks as multipliers. For example, a 2x means the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas!

Colton Loud vs. Christian Natividad Prediction for DWCS Tonight – Tuesday, September 8

Fight Winner Payouts: Colton Loud 3.22x | Christian Natividad 1.33x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)

The little guys typically bring it, and I don't think there's any exception with Colton Loud and Christian Natividad in this short-notice matchup.

At 5'8", Loud is a gangly, imposing figure with knockout power and the ability to roll in and out of awkward scrambles. That's a gift and a curse, leaving defensive openings or potentially getting reversed at certain points. He just won his Fury FC debut after an extensive, 6-1 run on "Peak Fighting FC", a Texas-based promotion.

To me, Peak is the entry point in Fury FC or LFA, which is why Natividad might be a substantial favorite here. There's just a massive gap in competition between Loud's and who Natividad has beaten over the course of a 9-0 run with LFA.

"The Hawaiian Puncher" has a UFC pedigree. His brother, Kevin, went winless in three UFC starts, but they train out of the same Fight Ready MMA gym in Arizona, which also houses Henry Cejudo, Bruno Silva, Amir Albazi, Aoriqileng, and others in this weight range.

He’s accomplished, but the promotion might not love his style. 6 of his 9 pro wins are by decision, and standing just 5'4", his frame isn't exactly dangerous. I don't grade him with elite knockout power, but it has occasionally surfaced.

He's also never recorded a pro submission despite a ground-heavy approach.

For that reason, I see this as a battle of experience against potential. Loud's ceiling is higher, but he's more prone to sloppy mistakes. Natividad might not be dangerous, but he's positionally sound and knows his path to win fights.

Will that get him a contract? I'm not sure. But, I wouldn't rule out Loud leaving his chin up in the air or getting trapped in a bad spot, allowing Natividad to break through with the type of win he needs to cement what is a well-renowned, accomplished regional career.

Predict the Loud vs. Natividad Winner for DWCS Week 5 on PrizePicks

Loud vs. Natividad Pick for DWCS Week 5 on PrizePicks

Colton Loud – 27.5 Significant Strikes

Natividad’s tendency to take things to the ground early and often should make for a scramble-heavy fight. Most of Loud’s work is also done on his back — or trying to find a way to take his opponents’.

Anecdotally, the Texan underdog hasn’t been knocked out in eight pro fights, but I’m also concerned about his striking defense in tougher matchups. This one is easily the stiffest test of his career.

Either a quick finish or a ground-dominant bout won’t help significant strike totals.

Make Your Loud vs. Natividad Pick for DWCS Week 5 on PrizePicks

Kwon Won Il vs. Apollo Gomes Prediction for DWCS Tonight – Tuesday, September 8

Fight Winner Payouts: Kwon Won Il 1.69x | Apollo Gomes 2.08x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

I'm extremely surprised that Kwon Won Il isn't a larger favorite in a return trip to DWCS.

Juan Diaz is one of the hottest names at 135 pounds, and Won Il was in a competitive (but losing) effort before a highlight knockout via spinning backfist. Before that point, the "Pretty Boy" from South Korea took a bunch of mammoth conventional shots from Diaz in a back-and-forth war. 

That’s why I’m not sure "chinny" may not seem particularly fair as a characterization, but he has now been KO'd in three of his last five. Plus, we saw submission defense problems that we saw with ONE Championship; Won Il was tapped inside five minutes twice.

Offensively, Won Il's boxing is solid with a great understanding of feints. I just don't know if he carries a lot of power, evidenced by five straight wins starting in Round 2 against lesser competition. Diaz was never really threatened.

The question is what danger Apollo Gomes, from Chute Box Diego Lima, brings to this one. The gym has a ton of UFC bodies his size, like Jose Ochoa, Daniel "Willycat" Santos, and Gabriel Santos. He brings the gym's typical pressure with a high-volume, karate-style approach.

Gomes' resume just isn't very exceptional. He's coming off a split decision — albeit up in weight at featherweight — where he seemed particularly hittable. His takedown defense was strong as he was able to anchor his whizzer against a larger guy, though.

In terms of skill, I think Wong Il competes — if not leads. Diaz was faster and sharper than Gomes. But questions about his durability and overall offensive potency have left him losing critical moments or getting stopped for the fourth time in his last seven fights. That’s a massive failure rate when the road only gets tougher at this level.

Predict the Won vs. Gomes Winner for DWCS Week 5 on PrizePicks

Won Il vs. Gomes Pick for DWCS Week 5 on PrizePicks

Apollo Gomes – 25.5 Significant Strikes

Assuming both fighters are in it for a while, the pace that Won Il showed against Juan Diaz last year is really encouraging for counting totals.

Both fighters attempted at least 12.50 significant strikes per minute, landing just 39% of those strikes apiece. Gomes’ strength doesn’t appear to be his striking defense, which allowed for the razor-thin margin in his last fight.

This is a particularly low strike total considering some conviction we’ll see at least five minutes, which has been the case in five straight wins by the South Korean.

Make Your Won vs. Gomes Pick for DWCS Week 5 on PrizePicks

Isaac Moreno vs. Reginaldo Junior Prediction for DWCS Tonight – Tuesday, September 8

Fight Winner Payouts: Isaac Moreno 1.72x | Reginaldo Junior 2.08x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)

The best fight on the card, to me, is this welterweight co-main event: Moreno vs. Junior.

Isaac Moreno, an undefeated 170-pounder from Fury FC, just dispatched a UFC alum, Darian Weeks, by knockout in his last fight. Weeks was 0-3 in UFC, but he wasn't finished in his time with the promotion. That might be why they want to get a look at the Texan's power.

Ironically enough, with Michael Page’s karate style making negative headlines in UFC all week, Moreno has an extremely well-credentialed karate style similar to that of the former Bellator welterweight champion or Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson.

That means he sort of relies on his opponent to bring the aggression and keep the fight active.

Moreno himself told LFA broadcasters he was trying to round out his grappling, and a powerful lower half suggests that takedown defense should come naturally. However, I really didn't see him on his back or defending takedowns from a potent threat. Weeks was never much of a wrestler; his other opponent of note, Melvin Guillard, is 2-10 as a pro by submission.

So, what is it about Reginaldo Junior that brings a new test? Well, a Fighting Nerds pedigree as a sparring partner of Carlos Prates isn't a bad start. That shows up in a confident, pressuring style despite being just 5'9", and I never saw him rocked or wobbled on tape.

But what really impresses me is making the most of those physical "disadvantages" by really being able to duck into quality takedown attempts — singles, doubles, or trips, as he uses his compact frame for top control. Plus, his cardio seems to be great.

Page's criticism makes this fight pretty hilarious. This is sort of the matchup the UFC never gave “MVP". Reginaldo will always pressure forward and trusts his eyes and his durability. How could you not, sparring with Prates and Mauricio Ruffy? Those guys add volume beyond what Moreno's upside could be.

Moreno is the cleaner technical striker. Junior has the grappling upside. I think both guys could win fights in UFC. It's a closely forecasted bout for a reason.

Predict the Moreno vs. Junior Winner for DWCS Week 5 on PrizePicks

Moreno vs. Junior Pick for DWCS Week 5 on PrizePicks

Moreno vs. Junior – 8.5 Minutes Fight Time

Moreno’s low-volume style has already led to longer fights in a regional promotion, Fury FC, known for violent brawls and knockouts. He’s gone the full distance in three fights (of eight total) already.

Junior seems to be game. He’s lost just once by decision, but I think his toughness and endurance are evident; four of his last eight wins came after the first round. He battled back to win a fight he was losing in his latest appearance.

Both guys are unusually accustomed to fighting deeper into their bout for prospects of their experience level. 

Make Your Moreno vs. Junior Pick for DWCS Week 5 on PrizePicks

Make DWCS Predictions and Fight Picks on PrizePicks

For 10 weeks, Dana White’s Contender Series goes down every Tuesday night, with a group of high-level prospects trying to impress the boss and earn a UFC contract.

Lock in your DWCS predictions on PrizePicks for today's fight card, which starts at 7 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

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