UFC Paris Predictions – Hooker vs. Parnasse & All Main Card Fights

On Saturday, a debuting fighter will headline a UFC card for just the sixth time since the start of 2010. Others who previously shared that honor include Justin Gaethje, Ronda Rousey, and Gilbert Melendez.

Clearly, the UFC thinks extremely highly of France’s Salahdine Parnasse as he joins that group in a lightweight feature against Dan Hooker. “The Hangman” is looking to show Parnasse that there is no free pass into the 155-pound rankings, though.

The UFC Paris main card features six fights, with Parnasse a heavy favorite over Hooker in the main event, according to PrizePicks. In the co-main event, surging French lightweights collide on home turf as Fares Ziam battles Axel Sola.

The UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse main card starts Saturday afternoon at 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC Paris predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Hooker vs. Parnasse and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC Paris predictions on PrizePicks for winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

UFC Paris Predictions for Hooker vs. Parnasse & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Paris predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse’s main card is expected to start at 3 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse – Lightweight
• Co-Main Event: Fares Ziam vs. Axel Sola – Lightweight
• Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev – Middleweight
• Daniil Donchenko vs. Punahele Soriano – Welterweight
• Kurtis Campbell vs. Trevor Peek – Featherweight
• Losene Keita vs. Muhammad Naimov – Featherweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Paris main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. A lower multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse Prediction for UFC Paris

Fight Winner Payouts: Dan Hooker 4.54x | Salahdine Parnasse 1.17x

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)

From Netflix’s biggest MMA event ever to a main event in his home country for a UFC debut, it’s a good time to be Salahdine Parnasse.

The “Lion of Atlas” has long been on the promotion’s radar, but his management team has sculpted a different, more financially beneficial path than Dana White’s Contender Series. Before this debut, Parnasse has wins over three current UFC roster members.

The 5’10” fighter has extremely fast hands, fluid kicks, surprising takedown offense, and a sneaky submission game, per 7 wins by tapout. His two pro losses in 25 appearances were an injury and a close five-round decision, and he looked dominant on his biggest stage to date:

These factors are how you get someone who is such a notable favorite over a mainstay in the lightweight rankings, Dan Hooker.

“The Hangman” is certainly on the back nine at 36 years old, suffering consecutive grappling-heavy losses to Arman Tsarukyan and Benoit Saint Denis. His last win was a split over Mateusz Gamrot in Perth.

Though his toughness and ability to mix it up with his long kicks are still dangerous, the veteran competitor has had immense trouble when the fight was floored. Parnasse’s well-versed ground game is likely why many fear he’ll eventually end things from a dominant position on the canvas.

Predict the Hooker vs. Parnasse winner at UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Hooker vs. Parnasse Pick for UFC Fight Night

This is the first main event I couldn’t model since Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Asakura in December 2024. Asakura ended up losing quickly via submission with a grappling deficiency that never showed up in Japan. That’s the risk of forecasting guys from a much lower level of competition.

But this could be a longer fight in Parnasse’s toughest test yet. He’s a former featherweight who has moved up to 155 pounds as he’s entered his prime, and that could reduce the power with which he carries.

Even as Hooker’s struggles against tremendous grapplers persist, I'll never doubt this guy’s ability to eat punches and kicks at all levels:

Hooker vs. Parnasse – 9.99 Minutes Fight Time

Make your Hooker vs. Parnasse pick for UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Fares Ziam vs. Axel Sola Prediction for UFC Paris

Fight Winner Payouts: Fares Ziam 1.61x | Axel Sola 2.22x

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)

Ziam vs. Sola Model Results:

Two gigantic lightweights from different parts of France will duel in Saturday’s co-main.

Lyon’s Fares Ziam will look to dispatch Nice’s Axel Sola in this battle of two guys who largely get it done the same way. I’m fascinated to see who has the edge in which areas.

Ziam could have entered this one on a rocket ship, but his six-fight winning streak was snapped at the Apex in June by Tom “Big Train” Nolan. At 6’3”, Nolan had the size and cardio to post a +15 strike differential in a fight that primarily involved clinch work.

Overall, I’ve always joked “Smile Killer” wasn’t killing too many smiles at just 2.68 significant strikes landed per minute with a 0.52% knockdown rate (KD%). While the highlights exist, five of his seven UFC wins are decisions, and the competition is only getting tougher.

Sola is much more of a wild card because of his previous level of competition. His two wins have come over opponents a combined 3-9 in UFC, including another sub-five-minute implosion by Ismael Bonfim in his last bout:

Sola had a -45 striking differential against Mason Jones (4-3, 1 NC) in a fight that was exciting, but he definitely lost.

There are two key differences in these two fighters’ stat profiles, and both favor Sola. Their striking accuracy, striking defense, takedown accuracy, takedown defense, and submission attempts per 15 minutes are nearly identical, but Sola lands 1.82 more significant strikes per minute with a much higher knockdown rate (1.40 KD%).

Predict the Ziam vs. Sola winner at UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Ziam vs. Sola Pick for UFC Fight Night

Occasionally, fighters land an unusually low amount of significant strikes per minute, but context is key. Perhaps there was a bad performance or two on the mat or something.

Here? Nope. Fares Ziam has over 145 minutes of octagon time with an 8-3 record and solid takedown defense (72%). He just doesn't put volume together as a striker, making him perhaps the largest outlier in the division in that regard. His highest career total ever in perfect conditions? 61 significant strikes.

Without his usual reach advantage and facing Sola’s quality striking defense (61%), maybe that doesn't change.

Fares Ziam – 36.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Ziam vs. Sola pick for UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev Prediction for UFC Paris

Fight Winner Payouts: Michael Page 1.53x | Nursulton Ruziboev 2.32x

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)

Page vs. Ruziboev Model Results:

This is a first for me. I don’t remember the last 4-1 UFC fighter that was fighting for his job, but Michael “Venom” Page has to make a little magic happen.

In Bellator, the Englishman was a rockstar. I described his striking style closer to fencing with fists, donning a bladed stance that would starch and knock out overaggressive foes:

He always had grappling woes, but matching him appropriately could still produce a few fun “MVP” fights in UFC, right? Wrong. Page has averaged just 2.28 significant strikes per minute in frustrating staring contests where both fighters failed to eclipse 50 significant strikes. All five of his bouts have gone to a decision as well.

Perhaps to the detriment of Page, they’ve introduced a little grappling danger here. Nursulton Ruziboev averages only 1.70 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, but he converts an elite clip of them (80%). The 6’5” boxer hasn’t needed many takedowns with four finishes in six starts.

But in a matchup with a lengthy kickboxer, Andrey Pulyaev, in his very last fight, he showed that his 21 career pro submissions didn’t come by accident:

In 48 pro fights, Ruziboev has been knocked out just once, and it was in Round 2. The quick highlight against him doesn’t exist. Plus, Page is now 39, and I wonder if this shift to inactive fighting has anything to do with perhaps not being able to risk getting clipped, which he has always done well to avoid.

At distance, this could be yet another staring contest with Page squeezing out rounds, but Ruziboev’s grappling might quickly close the show if the Englishman isn’t careful.

Predict the Page vs. Ruziboev winner at UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Page vs. Ruziboev Pick for UFC Fight Night

Observe the following numbers: 55, 55, 75, 38, and 62.

These aren’t significant strike lands from Michael Page in his five full-length featured fights. These are attempts, meaning that “MVP” has heavily relied on his patented accuracy (58%) to even post the card-worst rate of 2.28 significant strikes per minute.

That just doesn’t leave any upside in a Ruziboev matchup. Whatever trade-off might come from the Uzbekistan fighter’s middling striking D (49%) could also be erased by the grappling offense he just showed that he'll deploy in the right matchup.

Michael Page – 26.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Page vs. Ruziboev pick for UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Daniil Donchenko vs. Punahele Soriano Prediction for UFC Paris

Fight Winner Payouts: Daniil Donchenko 1.38x | Punahele Soriano 2.85x

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)

Donchenko vs. Soriano Model Results:

Many have Ukraine’s Daniil Donchenko on a shortlist to watch in UFC’s deepest division.

At 25, Donchenko is already 3-0 in the UFC after winning The Ultimate Fighter in 2025 against significantly more experienced foes. The marauder has proven he’s going to charge forward with thudding leg kicks and looping hooks with bad intentions. He’s yet to be finished in 16 pro fights, either.

He’s ready for this sorely needed step up in competition, though. Aging UFC veteran Alex Morono and two debutants aren’t a good indicator of whether he’ll sink or swim at 170 pounds. Punahele Soriano, 4-0 in the weight class, most certainly is.

“Puna” took his lumps at middleweight, but he won a firefight with Uros “The Doctor Medic” in addition to three other wrestling-heavy decisions where his takedown offense (1.97 landed per 15 minutes) has really started to shine.

At striking distance, competition alone can’t really explain a 23 (!) percentage-point gap in striking defense between these two. Donchenko’s (70%) is elite.

The question is whether the Ukrainian’s takedown D (75%) remains strong. Plus, we’ll see which of these two fighters can push a higher pace over 15 minutes; Soriano really sputtered down the stretch against Ramiz Brahimaj, who notoriously has endurance problems himself.

Predict the Donchenko vs. Soriano winner at UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Donchenko vs. Soriano Pick for UFC Fight Night

There is volatility in Donchenko’s significant strikes projection.

If Soriano can get his takedowns going, he’s held his welterweight opponents to just 14.0 significant strikes per fight. Three of these four bouts went the full distance. The favorite’s total probably isn’t much higher if he can stay on his feet.

However, if he can, Donchenko has landed 8.07 significant strikes per minute thus far, and Soriano’s 47% striking defense is poor. We just haven’t seen it tested at welterweight with wrestling coming so easily.

Both of these fighters likely face more resistance than they have previously at UFC Paris, and Soriano has just one career loss by (T)KO at middleweight. He’s tough, which could allow the Tiger Muay Thai product to show out.

Daniil Donchenko – 44.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Donchenko vs. Soriano pick for UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Kurtis Campbell vs. Trevor Peek Prediction for UFC Paris

Fight Winner Payouts: Kurtis Campbell 1.23x | Trevor Peek 3.84x

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)

Though "The Pink Panther" didn't have the debut he hoped for, I still think brighter days are ahead.

Danny Silva is a ranked-level talent at featherweight. He went the distance with Kevin Vallejos. Silva was always live to upset Kurtis Campbell, but even I was shocked by a second-round knockout from a perfect right hand. The 24-year-old's quirky striking setup with low hands bit him tremendously in that exchange after arguably winning the first round.

The Englishman is a truly complete martial artist, showcasing natural, smooth kicks that elicit reactions and create takedown opportunities. Silva's notoriously good anti-grappling was a tough test, but he can floor Trevor Peek.

UFC cycles through so many fans in this current sports environment that I'm not even sure how many people remember the height of "Peek-a-Palooza". The Tennessee brawler became an instant fan favorite by taking flush punches without issue in addition to delivering his own punishment.

The problem? It's abundantly clear he's light on skill. In addition to his awful striking (43%) and takedown (52%) defense, Peek's two UFC wins are against Erick Gonzalez and Mohamad Yahya, and his DWCS triumph came over Malik Lewis.

Those three are a combined 1-6 as professionals since meeting Peek in the octagon. He also hasn't fought since September 2024, rehabbing a leg injury.

I don't know for certain where the balance of power, cardio, durability, and speed will land as he shifts down from 155 pounds to featherweight, and the underdog's fearlessness is admirable. But a fighter as well-rounded as Campbell is certainly looking to iron out details and avoid an 0-2 start with the promotion.

Predict the Campbell vs. Peek winner at UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Campbell vs. Peek Pick for UFC Fight Night

For someone with Trevor Peek’s rock ‘em, sock ‘em robots style, you’d expect monstrous fantasy performances against him. That hasn’t really been the case.

Peek has historically absorbed just 3.88 significant strikes per minute because he’s ceded 27 takedowns in five UFC-affiliated appearances. Significant ground strikes must have noted impact to count, and that’s why Campbell (3.50 per minute) hasn’t landed a boatload himself, either.

You have to wonder if “The Pink Panther” deploys a grappling-heavy approach here. Every opponent has enjoyed success against Peek doing so, and Campbell has secured 8.76 takedowns per 15 minutes against much tougher foes.

Kurtis Campbell – 25.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Campbell vs. Peek pick for UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Losene Keita vs. Muhammad Naimov Prediction for UFC Paris

Fight Winner Payouts: Losene Keita 1.23x | Muhammad Naimov 3.84x

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)

Parnasse is being dropped right into the rankings for his promotional debut, and Losene Keita can relate.

Keita faced Nathaniel Wood, ranked ninth in UFC’s Meta AI Rankings, in his first UFC tilt. Even in defeat, “The Black Panther” showed flashes of the brilliance that made him a two-division weight champion with OKTAGON MMA in Germany:

Speed is what stands out for the featherweight, who never connected to also showcase his power. I’ll also be interested to see how he’s able to resist what are likely wrestling attacks in these new matchups as well.

As mentioned with Campbell, an 0-2 UFC start and a place on the roster bubble isn’t the way any fighter wants to begin their career, and Keita is looking to avoid that against Muhammad Naimov.

“Hillman” was among a wave of UFC entrants from Tajikistan in 2023, and he’s posted a 5-2 record. It’s been quite the road to get there, though, when he’s got a -0.84 striking success rate (SSR) overall and has been outstruck in six of his eight total UFC-affiliated fights. Different judging could've completely changed the outlook of Naimov’s career.

At his best, Naimov does have decent power, the ability to wrestle, and solid control from the back:

As we saw with the underdog's last loss to Mairon Santos, he struggles with faster kickboxers, and Keita is lightning. But the Tajik fighter’s grappling gives him a tool that might be something the Belgian fighter hasn’t seen on the regional scene.

Predict the Keita vs. Naimov winner at UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Keita vs. Naimov Pick for UFC Fight Night

Nathaniel Wood has above-average striking accuracy (51%) for this division, and he was only able to land 38% of his significant strikes against Keita. Naimov fought Wood, and the Englishman landed 69% of his significant strikes.

That gap really shows how far ahead Keita should be at striking range. The guy is a blur, and that’s never been Naimov’s strength, holding a 40% accuracy of his own.

Even if Naimov is enjoying success with his wrestling, that won’t help his total count of significant strikes as much as it would be helping him win the bout.

Muhammad Naimov – 29.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Keita vs. Naimov pick for UFC Paris on PrizePicks.

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Paris: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks or lift championship gold. Lock in your UFC predictions for today's main card, which starts at 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Paris, headlined by Hooker vs. Parnasse, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, available in 36 states!

Stay tapped into Playbook for more UFC predictions, picks, and analysis for every card, every weekend.