Dana White’s Contender Series Predictions, Picks Tonight – Week 4 (9/1/26)

Not many sports have a job audition on live television. Mixed martial arts and the UFC aren't like many other sports.

Every summer, Dana White scours local regional MMA scenes for the future stars of UFC, pitting the world’s top prospects against each other on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS).

These prospects can’t just win. To get a contract, they’ve got to impress the boss for 10 weeks, making the bouts even more action-packed than weekly UFC events. As an even more unique twist, sometimes even losers of wild fights get signed.

The action goes down every Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down Season 10, Episode 4 with predictions, predictive analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks.

Make your Dana White’s Contender Series predictions on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right on every fight, including on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Dana White’s Contender Series Predictions Tonight for Week 4 – Tuesday, September 1

Before we get into our Dana White’s Contender Series predictions for tonight, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

Season 10, Episode 4 of the Contender Series is expected to start at 7 p.m. ET, with the first fight on Paramount+. As usual, there are five fights scheduled. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Featured Bout: Patrick Rivera vs. Adam Darby – Welterweight
• Brandon Holmes vs. Modestino Rodrigues – Middleweight
• Liam McCracken vs. Silvestre Sanchez – Lightweight
• Gabriel Lourenco vs. Charlie Cleveland – Heavyweight
• Hunter Smith vs. Adam Livingston – Lightweight

We’ll list the payouts for winners of each of these featured Contender Series fights, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas!

Hunter Smith vs. Adam Livingston Prediction for DWCS Tonight

Fight Winner Payouts: Hunter Smith 2.43x | Adam Livingston 1.51x

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)

Two stand-and-bang specialists at lightweight will square off in the first fight of the night — we’ll see which style wins out.

Adam Livingston “appeared” last year on DWCS, but Tommy Gantt pitched a total shutout with his wrestling to mute the entire appearance. The Long Island-based kickboxer is a bit slender for this weight class, but he's relentless in his pressure and volume, and his chin has passed every test to this point.

That's not to say that he doesn't have his faults. In addition to wrestling concerns, he leaves both hands low (and the left one to an extreme degree). Some fighters are absolutely primed to land a head kick if he doesn't shore up that defensive hole. Plus, I just don't think he's overly powerful.

Hunter Smith is a different style of striker. He's shorter and more compact like his Syndicate MMA teammate in UFC, Kody Steele.

The superior gym definitely shows up in his fundamentals, showcasing a higher guard, the ability to roll with punches, and a tendency to work off the jab. Kicks are a work in progress at all levels, but his skill set could benefit greatly from increased volume on low kicks.

It's interesting to see Livingston as a modest favorite here, but he's a great hammer, so his highlights are outstanding. Smith's fundamentals, especially defensively, are much better, and we’ve seen him face greater adversity moving backward.

In a firefight, the underdog's chin may be more trustworthy, and this show's urgency tends to bring that out.

Predict the Smith vs. Livingston winner for DWCS Week 4 on PrizePicks.

Smith vs. Livingston Pick for DWCS Week 4 on PrizePicks

Durability may be the pivotal factor of which fighter gets their hand raised here.

These two fighters are a combined 1-2 in submission outcomes, and both of their pro losses came by tapout. This is a war on the feet, and neither has been put away as a pro.

Livingston’s pace is ferocious, and he takes the center in almost every fight. But it took an inordinate amount of huge shots for him to put away his most recent opponent because his slender build doesn’t generate a ton of pop.

This could be a lengthy war at 155 pounds to open the show, perhaps bringing the best out of Smith’s striking volume that we’ve seen to date.

Hunter Smith – 27.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Smith vs. Livingston pick for DWCS Week 4 on PrizePicks.

Gabriel Lourenco vs. Charlie Cleveland Prediction for DWCS Tonight

Fight Winner Payouts: Gabriel Lourenco 2.63x | Charlie Cleveland 1.42x

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)

It’s a shame that I wrote about Terrance Chatman two weeks ago, and yet, one of these two guys will be going home without a UFC contract. Either Charlie Cleveland or Gabriel Lourenco would be a great addition to the roster.

I'm extremely impressed by Cleveland, a southpaw boxer with educated eyes and superb takedown defense for a big guy.

In the mid-240s in terms of weight, "The Reaper" is no blob. In fact, the name sounded familiar, and it's because it's a blast from the past; he was an entrant in the 2023 NFL Draft from Tiffin University in FCS.

In his last fight against a successful collegiate wrestler (Nyle Bartling) who had his hands locked and had his back, Cleveland was able to scrape him off and even use a kimura sweep to get back to his feet. You just don't see that skill from big boys often.

I don't want to rule out Lourenco, though. He's just more of an unknown from a frighteningly poor regional competition level in Brazil. UFC found him through his Chute Box affiliation as a training partner of Charles Oliveira. That's also why he's in excellent shape for a heavyweight.

Lourenco's Muay Thai style is polished and fast, but he's extremely upright if Cleveland were to shoot for takedowns. He was also blinked by Igor Cavalancati (a middleweight DWCS alum)  in under 90 seconds.

Lourenco has the upside to win this fight in a volatile striking match between two huge guys, but Cleveland's previous level of competition and well-roundedness are significantly superior. Plus, the American was always going to be a favorite when his only loss was to RJ Harris, an undefeated prospect in UFC’s heavyweight division.

Predict the Lourenco vs. Cleveland winner for DWCS Week 4 on PrizePicks.

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Lourenco vs. Cleveland Pick for DWCS Week 4 on PrizePicks

For two regional heavyweights, I wouldn’t automatically assume a tree falls within a couple of minutes. These guys both have a history of extended fights, which usually correlates to skill.

Cleveland fought deep into Round 2 against Harris before succumbing to an Americana submission. I am not convinced that’s a worry against the Brazilian Muay Thai specialist in this spot, but it does instill a little faith in his cardio and durability.

Lourenco only weighed in at 229 pounds on Monday, too. Most light heavyweights cut from a larger weight down to 205, so he’s really ceding a lot of power for this division’s standards.

Lourenco vs. Cleveland – 4.5 Minutes Fight Time

Make your Lourenco vs. Cleveland pick for DWCS Week 4 on PrizePicks.

Brandon Holmes vs. Modestino Rodrigues Prediction for DWCS Tonight

Fight Winner Payouts: Brandon Holmes 1.53x | Modestino Rodrigues 2.52x

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)

Returning fighters to the show can have hit-and-miss credentials, but I think Brandon Holmes’ loss to Cam Rowston (3-0 UFC) has proven to be excusable.

Holmes' stock didn't dip a great deal from last year's Round 1 (T)KO loss to Rowston, and it certainly didn't dip last week, either. The American has a convincing decision win over Nick Galanti, who stole the show last Tuesday.

The American is a really solid fighter. His elite takedown defense may not play a factor in this kickboxing matchup, but he's an extremely durable Muay Thai fighter who will switch stances, work the body, and has a solid calf kick. The effective reach of Rowston was the crux of the issue, and his opponent this time is definitely smaller.

Frankly, he's got some grappling chops to be such a high-level defender, and that could be a game-changing element of this fight.

Rodrigues’ resume is a total unknown. His Revira Black Team has no active UFC members or alumni, and his schedule is devoid of high-level prospects. The most notable MMA action came from the Jungle Fight promotion in São Paulo, which last brought us Rafael Tobias (0-2 UFC).

Curiously, Rodrigues' last three outings were kickboxing matches, not MMA fights. It's not ideal that the Brazilian was basically stuck on his back for a whole round in Jungle Fight before finding the Round 2 (T)KO. He might have severe grappling problems.

Plus, "The Slenderman" was brutally KO’d in a minute in his only pro MMA loss. Like Petruzzella a week ago, that's a concerning sign when the road only gets tougher from here.

If Holmes takes a well-rounded approach for the sole purpose of winning, he could sit for three rounds in Rodrigues' guard. This is DWCS, however, and the intent to bring the action adds intrigue to this matchup.

With that said, I value Holmes' win over Galanti tremendously, and he might not be getting the love he deserves for it.

Predict the Holmes vs. Rodrigues winner for DWCS Week 4 on PrizePicks.

Holmes vs. Rodrigues Pick for DWCS Week 4 on PrizePicks

With a potentially huge grappling edge, any finish — submission or ground-and-pound (T)KO — is usually good enough to earn a contract on this show.

Brandon Holmes could be thinking the ground is his best path to one. He’s scored them before:

With that being the case, it may be difficult for Rodrigues to pile up significant strikes on his back.

The Brazilian KO artist has also scored six of his seven pro wins as knockouts inside six minutes. If he were to clip Holmes early, the path to a “Less” in a victorious effort is still present.

Modestino Rodrigues – 13.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Holmes vs. Rodrigues pick for DWCS Week 4 on PrizePicks.

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Make DWCS Predictions and Fight Picks on PrizePicks

Dana White’s Contender Series goes down on Tuesdays with a group of prospects aiming to impress the boss and earn a contract. Be sure to make your DWCS predictions for today's main card, which starts at 7 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for Dana White’s Contender Series and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

Every week, you can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, available in 36 states!

Stay right here with Playbook for more UFC predictions, picks, and analysis for every card, every weekend.