Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje Prediction for UFC White House Title Fight

UFC’s biggest star at present will, of course, headline what Dana White believes is UFC’s biggest event ever.

Ilia “El Matador” Topuria enters on perhaps the greatest three-fight knockout streak in the promotion’s history. He’ll make his latest appearance on The White House lawn opposite proud American brawler Justin Gaethje.

Will the undefeated Spanish champion defend his belt, or will Gaethje pull an All-American upset rivaling the “Miracle on Ice”?

The main event of UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje is expected to start around 11:15 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

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Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje Prediction, Preview for UFC White House Main Event

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Ilia Topuria: 1.21x ($100 pays $121)

• By KO/TKO: 1.51x
• By Submission: 7.14x
• By Decision: 10x

Justin Gaethje: 4x ($100 pays $400)

• By KO/TKO: 5.88x
• By Submission: 22.22x
• By Decision: 11.11x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

With the only American champion having been crowned last month, a difficult decision to headline such a major event landed on Ilia “El Matador” Topuria for a reason.

With a 9-0 UFC record, the Spaniard’s meteoric rise to top dog in the pound-for-pound rankings has been sensational. He’s knocked out Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira — three elite champions –— across two weight classes, and they keep getting more vicious with each passing start:

The fact that the trio is a combined 4-1 since their bouts with Topuria shows the respect he’s earned. These aren’t washed, aging combatants. They’re killers in their prime that he’s dismantled.

However, it would be unwise to give Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje anything less than a puncher’s chance in any fight. Gaethje has earned a post-fight performance bonus in 11 of his 13 career fights, a ratio that will likely never be topped.

The American has earned his way into a third title opportunity with a dominant, violent, and somewhat unexpected win over Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett in January, where he had the Englishman hurt at several points:

Extremely motivated to represent his home country, Gaethje will attempt to score the upset of a lifetime, while Topuria looks to build on an already historic resume.

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How Ilia Topuria Wins vs. Justin Gaethje at UFC White House

Ilia Topuria’s evolution from a grappling specialist who landed just 13 significant strikes in his debut to perhaps the best MMA boxer of all time has been unbelievable.

Much more than his +0.98 striking success rate would indicate, Topuria is widely considered unbeatable due to his footwork and head movement. He’s been able to pressure great champions without issue:

From a defensive perspective, Justin Gaethje’s 51% striking defense is actually well behind Topuria’s other recent opponents, too.

Of course, both Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov submitted Gaethje in the first 10 minutes of title fights. That parachute is still open for Topuria if the striking gets a little wild or dangerous; he still averages 1.96 takedowns and 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes despite falling in love with his hands of late.

Overall, Topuria’s temperament is most important. Gaethje’s best chance is in his patented brawl. In a technical, measured affair, Topuria has looked completely untouchable.

How Justin Gaethje Wins vs. Ilia Topuria at UFC White House

Justin Gaethje has promised “missiles fired on The White House lawn,” and one will, presumably, need to find the target to upset the dominant champion.

However, don’t put the American in a “knockout or bust” box here. He’s won all four of his career fights that went to a decision, aided by 6.48 significant strikes per minute that score a ton of points on the judges’ scorecards. That’s a higher historical land rate than Topuria (4.81) if he’s able to eat the Spaniard’s punches without issue.

Before Topuria’s fight with Oliveira, I had real questions if the former 145er’s power would translate up in weight. Those questions still faintly exist when Gaethje has been pretty durable, and he’s the natural lightweight of these two at 5’11."

This fight becomes considerably more interesting if Topuria’s power isn’t an issue. Gaethje’s 74% takedown defense is very solid overall and can keep things in a domain where he can win it.

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Topuria vs. Gaethje Prediction for UFC White House Lightweight Title Fight

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Topuria vs. Gaethje: UFC Predictive Model Results

The model is going to have a hard time finding holes in Topuria as an undefeated 29-year-old champion in his prime with basically zero analytical holes in this game.

As mentioned in Gaethje’s win condition, though, Topuria’s historical striking volume is the only factor in this fight that lags Gaethje. If this one were to, improbably, hit the judges’ scorecards after a full 25 minutes, it would deeply respect Gaethje’s perfect record in decisions and historical volume.

Moreover, Gaethje has faced only 3 submission attempts in the UFC, and he tapped to 2 of them. The model rates him as a really terrible grappler once you get past entry-level takedown D, which is another factor as to why Topuria’s decision probability (1.8%) is so small.

It’s an interesting result that the model found few scenarios in which Topuria succeeds but doesn’t find an opportunity to finish the fight, but the Spaniard’s 88.2% pro finish rate presents challenges similar to those posed analytically by heavyweight Tom Aspinall (100%) as a dominant force.

Topuria vs. Gaethje Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Justin Gaethje – 37.5 Significant Strikes

With such a hefty land rate, the duration that “The Highlight” sticks around in this one should directly correlate with which side of his significant strikes projection ends up coming to fruition.

Gaethje has landed at least 72 significant strikes in every career fight that started Round 3. That’ll be easier said than done when Topuria has stopped 14 of his 17 pro opponents inside 10 minutes.

Topuria’s 64% striking defense, the best inside the lightweight rankings, also presents a unique scoring challenge. 

Only Charles Oliveira, via a quick submission, stopped Gaethje in Round 1. If the favorite stays true to his word about 0 takedown attempts, this projection becomes fascinating:

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Make Your Topuria vs. Gaethje Picks on PrizePicks

UFC Freedom 250’s main event goes down this Saturday from The White House lawn in Washington, D.C.! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Topuria vs. Gaethje, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.

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