France vs. Spain Pick: Will Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal Score a Goal Today?

The World Cup Semifinals kicks off today with perhaps the most anticipated match of the entire tournament, France vs. Spain. Tuesday, July 14’s fixture gets underway at 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX in AT&T Stadium — a grand venue fit for the occasion. PrizePicks Team Picks has France as the favorite with a 1.58x payout to advance, compared to Spain’s 2.22x.

All is well for the French, as ST Kylian Mbappé remains firmly in the Golden Boot race with 8 goals, RW Ousmane Dembélé has quietly stacked 5 goals at the World Cup, and AM Michael Olise continues to facilitate the attack. Meanwhile, Spain RW Lamine Yamal has been under criticism for underwhelming numbers.

Goal scorer projections are front and center on PrizePicks for today’s tilt loaded with superstar attackers. Will Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal score a goal on Tuesday’s grand stage?

Below, we’ll break down Mbappé and Yamal’s chances to score a goal, featuring France vs. Spain picks and projections found on PrizePicks.

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Will Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal Score a Goal in the World Cup Semifinals?

This fixture could truly feature four of the world’s five best players: Yamal, Mbappé, Olise, and Dembélé. You couldn’t ask for more attacking talent in one match.

France does most of the heavy lifting with Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise lining up in an unfair front line. Meanwhile, Yamal remains an absurd talent despite heavy criticism for his 1 goal over six World Cup appearances.

Les Bleus’ 16 goals are the second-most of the competition, while Spain’s 11 goals are tied as the sixth-most but sit as the lowest among the final four teams. 

According to FotMob, France’s 14.3 expected goals (xG) top the field by a comfortable margin, with Argentina’s 12.8 ranked second. Spain’s 11.7 xGs aren’t far behind as the fourth-highest mark at World Cup 2026.

Each team is clearly capable of finding the back of the net, but this won’t be a walk in the park for any attacker, even the likes of Mbappé and Yamal. 

In fact, La Roja’s 1.8 xGs conceded are still the lowest of the 48-team field, even compared to teams that played fewer games in the group stage. Spain finally gave up their first goal in the 2-1 win over Belgium in the Quarterfinals. 

France has allowed just 2 goals over six matches. For context, Argentina and England have each conceded 6 total goals. 

Will the top remaining defenses halt talented attackers like Mbappé and Yamal?

The possession battle should also influence the attacks, as La Roja ranks first with a 66.0% average possession. Les Bleus’ 58.4% average possession is eighth across the 48-team field and third among the remaining four teams.

With the stage set, let’s look at if Mbappé and Yamal can score a goal today, paired with their stat projections found on PrizePicks.

Find our full France vs. Spain prediction and expert picks HERE!

Kylian Mbappé Pick, World Cup Stats to Target vs. Spain

Mbappé has finally evened Lionel Messi’s 2026 World Cup goal total, as each player has tallied 8 ahead of the World Cup Semifinals. The French striker has made goal contributions in all six matches, including scoring a goal in five appearances.

As part of PrizePicks' Taco Tuesday — a weekly promo serving multiple Discounts chosen by the community every Tuesday — Mbappé's standard 4-shot projection vs. Spain has been discounted to 2.5 shots for a limited time.

His knack for performing at the highest level on the international stage continues, and that could mean lofty stats in today’s matchup. Below is a full list of Kylian Mbappé’s projections vs. Spain in the World Cup Semifinals, via PrizePicks. 

• 0.5 Goals (Demon)
• 2.5 Shots (Taco Tuesday Discount)
• 4 Shots (Standard)
• 31.5 Passes Attempted
• 2 Shots on Target
• 4.5 Attempted Dribbles
• 19.5 Fantasy Score
• 0.5 Crosses (Goblin)
• 2 Shots Assisted
• 0.5 Goal + Assist

Despite logging 8 goals across six matches, Mbappe’s 0.5-goal projection vs. Spain is a Demon. PrizePicks Demons are more difficult to win but mean higher payouts, and users can only pick More when selecting Demons.

Let’s look at his chance of finding the back of the net on Tuesday afternoon.

France ST Kylian Mbappé vs. Spain: 0.5 Goals (Demon)

• We haven’t seen an Mbappé goal listed as a Demon for a few games, and that’s courtesy of a Spain defense conceding 1 goal across the entire tournament. 
• La Roja limits opponents to 5.67 shots per match (second-fewest among 48 teams) and 1.17 shots on target per match (the fewest).
• Belgium finally cracked the code for scoring on Spain, but the Red Devils still posted just 5 shots and 2 shots on target in the 2-1 loss.
• Opportunities are usually limited against the Spanish, and their 66.0% possession rate certainly plays a part.
• La Roja’s 14.67 pressed sequences per match (fourth-highest; highest of Semifinals) could provide an angle for Mbappé to shoot, per Opta Analyst.
• Spain’s pressing system plays a key role in maintaining possession, but this is playing with fire against a lightning-quick France squad. Mbappé’s speed is the crown jewel of their pace.
• Les Bleus may look to lean on their speed by deploying direct attacks more often, and that’s when Mbappé could strike.
• In two matchups with Spain in the 2024 Euro and 2025 UEFA Nations League, Mbappé tallied 1 goal with 4.5 shots per match.

Combine France + Kylian Mbappé World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.

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Lamine Yamal Pick, World Cup Stats to Target vs. France

Now let's look at Lamine Yamal’s list of projections vs. France, per PrizePicks. He’s been quiet on the scoresheet of late, but is that bound to change?

• 0.5 Goals (Demon)
• 0.5 Shots on Target (Goblin) 
• 3.5 Shots
• 31.5 Passes Attempted
• 18.5 Fantasy Score
• 7.5 Attempted Dribbles
• 3.5 Crosses
• 1.5 Shots Assisted
• 0.5 Goal + Assist (Demon)

Similar to Mbappé, Yamal’s 0.5-goal projection is listed as a Demon on PrizePicks. That certainly checks out with scoring 1 goal over six contests.

Ahead of today’s match, the 19-year-old — who celebrated a birthday on Monday — voiced his displeasure with critics. 

Scoring a goal and sending Spain to the World Cup Final would quiet the crowd. Below, we’ll dive into Yamal’s matchup for scoring a goal vs. France.

Spain RW Lamine Yamal vs. France: 0.5 Goals (Demon)

• Yamal has yet to lose to Mbappé in an elimination game, and if that’s to continue, he may need to log a goal on Tuesday afternoon.
• In international competition, Yamal posted 3 goals and 4.0 shots per match over two duels with Mbappé and France in the 2024 Euro and 2025 UEFA Nations League.
• Spain’s right winger will likely draw one-on-one matchups with France LB Lucas Digne, who is expected to join Paris Saint-Germain. Digne has provided strong play by winning 65.2% of duels (82nd percentile) and 80.0% of aerial duels (84th percentile) at the World Cup.
• Further, Digne has been dribbled past only 0.26 times per 90 (77th percentile). That could limit Yamal’s ability to create space with his 4.67 successful dribbles per 90 (97th percentile).
• Opponents take 57.89% of their shots in the box against France (second-highest in Semifinals), and Yamal posts 10.22 touches in the box per 90 (97th percentile).
• The Barcelona superstar has enjoyed high volume with 5.11 shots (99th percentile) and 2.22 shots on target (99th percentile) per 90. 
• If Spain continues to control possession, that should mean Yamal continues to get plenty of shots, increasing his chance to score his first goal since Matchday 2 vs. Saudi Arabia in the group stage.

Combine Spain + Lamine Yamal World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.

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Make France vs. Spain World Cup Semifinals Picks on PrizePicks

France vs. Spain is loaded with some of the best talent in the world, including Mbappé and Yamal. Mbappé has scored a goal in five of his six World Cup matches, while Yamal is chasing his second World Cup goal following his 19th birthday. 

Will Mbappé or Yamal find a way to beat a quality defense with a goal on Tuesday? 

Don’t wait until lock — make your France vs. Spain picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right on every World Cup game.

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