After nearly two weeks of matches, we’ve arrived at an all-American Canadian Open men’s final between Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima — two of America's finest men's players.
Shelton is now one win away from becoming a back-to-back Canadian Open champion, and a victory would also mark his fourth title of 2026. Nakashima is into his first-ever Masters 1000 final, and he’s coming off a statement win against rising star Rafael Jodar, his fifth top-20 win this season.
Below, we’ll break down our Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick for the final. The men's final match is slated to start at 8:00 p.m. ET on Tennis Channel.
Make your Shelton vs. Nakashima pick on PrizePicks for Thursday’s final now!
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Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima Prediction, Favorite for the Canadian Open Men’s Final
Below are the payouts for who will win Thursday’s Shelton vs. Nakashima match, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima Prediction – Thursday, August 13
Match Winner Payouts: Shelton 1.38x | Nakashima 2.85x
Tournament Round: Canadian Open Men’s Final
2026 Record Entering the Canadian Open: Shelton 27-12 | Nakashima 22-15
Head-to-Head Record: Shelton leads, 5-0
Scheduled Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: Tennis Channel
Ben Shelton has been on fire throughout this Canadian Open run, winning all five matches in straight sets. His victims have included four seeded players, with his last three wins coming against a lethal trio in Joao Fonseca, Jakub Mensik, and Learner Tien.
His last two wins have been especially dominant, defeating Mensik 6-3, 6-1, and then dispatching Tien 6-2, 6-3. He wasn’t broken in either match.
Shelton’s had his ups and downs in 2026, but he’s now 4-0 in semifinals, and in the previous three instances, he went on to win the title.
Brandon Nakashima upset Rafael Jodar 7-6(3), 6-4 in his semifinal match, continuing a run of strong form since returning to North American hard courts. Nakashima also advanced to the Washington semifinals ahead of this event, defeating Mensik and defending champion Alex de Minaur. That gives him three top-20 wins over a roughly two-week span.
However, this is uncharted territory for the 25-year-old. Nakashima has one career ATP 250 title and has never even reached an ATP 500 final, let alone a Masters 1000 final.
Want more picks? Our Swiatek vs. Rybakina pick for the Canadian Open women's final
Nakashima also has a worrisome history facing Shelton, losing all five career meetings. Those five matches have come somewhat recently between 2024-25, too, with the last one actually at this same event in 2025.
In all, Shelton’s absurd form through the tournament, one-sided history against Nakashima, and his opponent’s inexperience at this level could point to him finishing the job in Thursday’s final.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Shelton wins this matchup 63.1% of the time.
Make your Shelton vs. Nakashima prediction on PrizePicks now!
Shelton vs. Nakashima Pick for Canadian Open Final Today
Ben Shelton Pick – 19.5 Fantasy Score
Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.
At this tournament, Shelton has scored 20.5, 27, 22, 24, and 25 fantasy points.
Although most of the sets have been competitive across their five head-to-head matches, Nakashima has ultimately won just one set against Shelton.
Shelton is 6-2 in tour-level finals and has won four in a row dating back to last year's Canadian Open championship.
Despite his recent success versus top-20 players, Nakashima is just 4-21 when facing top-10 opponents, and 2-13 on hard courts.
Shelton's serve has been broken just three times the entire tournament.
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Make Your Tennis Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Ben Shelton is on the verge of defending his Canadian Open title as he enters today's final. Will he cross the finish line on Thursday, or can Brandon Nakashima pull off the upset and capture his first Masters 1000 title?
Don’t wait until Thursday’s final start — make your tennis predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 36 states!
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily tennis predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.
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